1. Methodology and preliminary results for EU-25 projections of GHG emissions from waste in the GAINS model Lena Höglund, IIASA

2. The GAINS model for GHG GAINS PRIMESCO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O HFCs, PFCs, SF6 SO 2, NO X, NH 3, PM, VOC from RAINS Results: Emission projections 2005-2030 for 42 European Regions for scenarios: no control (NOC), current legislation (CLE) maximum feasible reduction (MFR) Abatement costs for all scenarios Interaction effects with other pollutants

3. Waste sector emission sources in GAINS Waste incineration: CO 2, SO 2, NO x, PM, NH 3, CH 4 Biodegradable waste treatment:CH 4, (CO 2 ) Wastewater handling:CH 4, N 2 O Agricultural waste:SO 2, NO x, PM, VOC, CH 4

4. Estimations of CH 4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS IPCC methodology based on: Amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated Emissions per unit of MSW Fraction of degradable organic carbon in MSW Fraction of MSW disposed of to landfill Problem with using IPCC methodology for projections: Main control options are options diverting biodegradable waste away from landfills, which changes all parameters above.

5. Methodology used in GAINS: Parameters used to calculate no control emissions: Amounts of biodegradable waste generated: Amount of paper waste (CEPI, 2002): Average annual paper consumption increase 1995-2002 assumed to continue until 2015 and no increase thereafter. Amount of organic (i.e. food and garden) waste (IPCC, AEAT): Organic waste generation per capita constant over time. Emission factors for biodegradable waste disposed of to uncontrolled landfill: 0.150 kt CH4/kt paper waste (AEAT, 1998 and Micales and Skog, 1997) 0.082 kt CH4/kt organic waste (AEAT, 1998) Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS

6. Paper consumed* Paper in municipal solid waste (MSW) flow (95% of paper consumed) Paper scattered without CH4 emissions (5% of paper consumed) Paper recycling Incineration Capped landfill with gas recovery and utilization Uncontrolled landfill Capped landfill with gas recovery and flaring Paper waste flow: *Average annual paper consumption increase 1995-2002 assumed to continue until 2015 and constant thereafter.

7. Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS Organic waste in the municipal solid waste flow Large-scale composting Incineration Biogasification Capped landfill with gas recovery and flaring Capped landfill with gas recovery and utilization Uncontrolled landfill Organic waste flow:

8. Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS Controlled CH4 emissions from biodegradable waste: wherei = 1,…,n are different waste diversion options, Qamount of biodegradable waste efno control emission factor Applapplication rate of control option remeffremoval efficiency of control option

9. Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS Current legislation (CLE) scenario: Current legislation considered: Landfill Directive (April, 1999) Reductions from 1995 level of biodegradable waste to landfills: 2006:-25% 2009:-50% + gas recovery at all landfills 2016:-65%

10. Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS Current legislation (CLE) scenario: Starting point for projections: Current levels of paper recycling, composting, incineration and landfilling with and without gas recovery. Projections: Landfill Directive fulfilled in all EU-25 primarily through increased recycling and composting.

11. Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS Maximum (technically) feasible reduction (MFR) scenario: MFR assumptions for application of paper waste control options: Paper recycling applied to a maximum. Maximum collection rate is 75% of paper consumed (CEPI, 2003). Paper waste not recycled is incinerated. No paper waste landfilled.

12. Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS MFR assumptions for application of organic waste control options: Large-scale composting applied to a maximum. Maximum generation of compost from organic waste is estimated to 49 to 124 kg per person and year, with mean 80 kg per person and year (AEAT, 1998), which is assumed for NMS. Organic waste not composted is treated through biogasification. No organic waste landfilled. Maximum (technically) feasible reduction (MFR) scenario:

13. Preliminary results

15. Conclusions In CLE, EU-15 emissions of CH4 from waste sector expected to increase or remain constant in 2000-2030, due to already low levels in 2000 and expected increase in amount of biodegradable waste. In CLE, NMS emissions of CH4 from waste sector expected to decrease in 2000-2030 as a result of fulfilling the Landfill Directive requirements. In 2010, MS projections for AUST, CZRE, ESTO, GREE, LATV, POLA, PORT, SKRE, SLOV exceed the estimated emission level required by the Landfill Directive. In 2010, MS projections for BELG, DENM, FINL, FRAN, ITAL, SWED, UNKI are lower than estimated maximum technically feasible emission level. More info on: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tap/RainsWeb/ http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tap/RainsWeb/ or hoglund@iiasa.ac.at