1. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 The CEPRIG Model (Calculate the Emissions and formulate Policies to Reduce Italian GHGs) Sandro FURLAN Scuola E. Mattei for Italian Ministry of Environment

2. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Background Actual Approach –MARKAL –Econometric estimations to supply input data for MARKAL to make comparison available –projections made in 1997 for:

3. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Background

4. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Model Description Approach –System Dynamics –Bottom-up Main Characteristics –interactions within the system –feedback relations of the variables –the crucial role of the time variable

5. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02

6. Model Description Goals –Scenario Analysis Time Horizon (hystorical 1990-1995) –base year 1998 –2005, –2010, –2020 qualitative valuation of different indicators –Activity level, energy consumption, GHGs –Policies Analysis

7. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Model Description Sectors –Industry, –Electricity, –Transports, –Residential, –Agricolture, –Other Sectors

8. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Industry 11 subsectors –metals, Non ferrous metals, Mechanical, Food, Textile, Building materials, glass, Chemicals, paper, minerals, other manufactures 3 key variables –activity level, energy intensity, energy mix Modelling –statistical and econometric function referring to the National Energy Data (1965 -1998) –interaction with prices

9. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Activity levelEnergy Intensity (E/PROD) TOTAL CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY ( i ) CO 2 Emissions TOTAL EMISSIONS Share of energy CO 2 Coefficients IE * PROD Aggregation i Prices Scenario

10. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Electricity Database of > 200 power plants according to: –14 technologies gas turbine, coal, hydro, renewable, combined cycle, etc. –4 fuels gas, coal, LSFO, FO025 –2 simulated fuels Most Economic Fuel (MEF), GT (MEF+ natural gas)

11. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Transports CO 2 emissions Unit consumption (l/km) fuel consumption Mobility demand (km/year) Vehicles fleet (vintage, power ) motorization Emission coefficient EURO standards Economic indicators GDP, prices

12. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Transports Only pure transport consumption is considered –infrastructure, vehicle production, fuel production are not included National data on energy consumption do not distinguish between –pax and freight –sells and consumption –national and foreigners

13. Brussels Workshop 27-28/02/02 Transports CO 2 emissions = Q fuels * emission factors Problem: calculation of emisssions in the electricity production –calculation of emission related to the production accordind to the energy mix –In the TRANSPORT sector the rail and EV electricity demand will be an input for the Electricity module Problem: dificult to perform a time related emission for freight considering the tons/km