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2. European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association Forecast of Food Farming and Fertilizer use in the European Union - 2004 to 2014

3. Major Events mCAP reform (Luxembourg agreement) qSingle Farm Payment : decoupling qEnvironmental Cross Compliance mEU Enlargement qMay 1 st 2004 qForecast for 8 New Member States

4. The CAP reform in the EU mThe Single Farm Payment Aid decoupled from production qIncrease of set aside (impact on the cereal area) »10% of the total drop in N »35% of the "extra drop" qIncitement to "extensification" qIncitement to "extensification" »Arable sector »Beef sector (grassland) mThe Cross compliance principle Payment of aid conditioned to environmental constraints qImpact : »Decrease of the rate of application mThe Single Farm Payment Aid decoupled from production qIncrease of set aside (impact on the cereal area) »10% of the total drop in N »35% of the "extra drop" qIncitement to "extensification" qIncitement to "extensification" »Arable sector »Beef sector (grassland) mThe Cross compliance principle Payment of aid conditioned to environmental constraints qImpact : »Decrease of the rate of application

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6. Potato Sugar beet Oilseeds + Pulses Fodder crops Other crops Permanent Crops Uncropped area Coarse grains Grassland Wheat 12 % 13 % 37 % 16 % Agricultural area EU 15 2001/02 to 2003/04 2001 to 2004 : 150.2 Mio ha Non fertilized : 49.5 Mio ha

7. Fertilizer use for crops in the EU15 2001/02 to 2004 fertilizer use (Mio t) : 9.0 N 2.9 P 2 O 5 3.3 K 2 O potato other wheat sugar beet fodder crops oilseeds & pulses grassland 23 % 22 % coarse grains

8. Forecast changes in farming crops oilseed rape potato grain maize rye, oats, rice barley wheat sugar beet -25 % -15 -5 5 5 15 25 35 % Area (ha) Yield (q/ha) Production (kt) 20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)

9. Forecast changes in EU15 fertilizer use by crop 20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)

10. Forecast changes in regional Fertilizer use 20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04) Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Austria France Spain -40 -30 -20 -10 0 0 Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium European Union Sweden Denmark % %

11. 12 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 10 Nutrient (million tonnes) - 7 % - 11 % - 10 % Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium Overall N+P+K decrease : 1.28 mio t EU15 fertilizer nutrient consumption 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

12. New Member States

13. New Member States (forecast period ) mEight countries represent 99.7 % consumption qCyprus and Malta represent less than 0.1 % arable land mEvaluation of acreage variation by crop qFAO & Commission sources mEvaluation of application rate by crop qFAO – IFA source & Forecasters Expertise mEight countries represent 99.7 % consumption qCyprus and Malta represent less than 0.1 % arable land mEvaluation of acreage variation by crop qFAO & Commission sources mEvaluation of application rate by crop qFAO – IFA source & Forecasters Expertise

14. Potato Sugar beet Oilseeds + Pulses + Fodder crops Other crops Agricultural area in the New Member States Current situation : 40 Mio ha Coarse grains Wheat Grassland

15. Fertilizer use for food crops farmed in the New Member States current fertilizer use (Mio t) : 1.7 N 0.5 P 2 O 5 0.6 K 2 O potato wheat sugar beet oilseeds & pulses Grassland 32 % 15 % 24 % coarse grains Fodder crops + others 11 % ? ?

16. Fertilizers consumption increase & grain production development 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Poland Hungary Czech Rep. Slovakia Estonia Lithuania Latvia Slovenia N N P2O5P2O5 P2O5P2O5 K2OK2O K2OK2O All grains 20013/14 versus current situation

17. 00 0.50.5 1.01.0 1.51.5 2.02.0 2.52.5 3.03.03.53.5Nitrogen P2O5P2O5P2O5P2O5 K2OK2OK2OK2O 2.01 0.67 0.560.56 Fertilizer use in the New Member States Overall N+P+K increase : 0.5 mio t 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Nutrient (million tonnes)

18. 12 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 10 Nutrient (million tonnes) Nitrogen EU15 fertilizer nutrient consumption 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 - 7 %

19. 12 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 10 Nutrient (million tonnes) Nitrogen EU25 fertilizer nutrient consumption 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 - 3 %

20. 12 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 10 Nutrient (million tonnes) - 11 % - 10 % Phosphorus Potassium EU15 fertilizer nutrient consumption 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

21. 12 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 10 Nutrient (million tonnes) - 7 % - 6 % Phosphorus Potassium EU25 fertilizer nutrient consumption 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

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