1. M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Emission projections

2. Approach for baseline emission projections Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 Use projections on emission generating activities (energy, transport, agriculture) –EU-wide scenarios and national projections Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020 –Taking account of international and national legislation

3. Preparation of RAINS databases

4. Bilateral consultations (1) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. scen Denmark-- 16 Jan 04 -YY Latvia-- 08 Oct 03 --Y EUROPIA2-3 Oct 03205 Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04- EURELECTRIC30-31 Oct 034 - - Hungary14 Nov 031 - --- Germany20-21 Nov 034 19 Dec 03 - 23 Mar 04 Y-- Czech Republic25 Nov 033 19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04 YYY ACEA12 Dec 0310 - - Italy15-16 Dec 032 19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 YY- France8-9 Jan 045 31 Mar 04 - 2-15 Apr 04 YY- Sweden22-23 Jan 043 29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 YYY UK26-28 Jan 048 19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04 YYY Spain4-5 Feb 045 30 Mar 04 - 13 Apr 04 Y--

5. Bilateral consultations (2) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr.. scen Portugal12-13 Feb 045 27 Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 YYY Belgium16-17 Feb 047 08 Mar - 2-13 Apr, 06 Apr 04 YY- Austria23 Feb 0411 24 Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 --Y Ireland4-5/19 Mar 042 12,19 Mar 04 Y-Y ESVOC8 Mar 047 - -- Finland8-9 Mar 043 19, 25 Mar 04 - 19 Apr 04 YY- Lithuania10 Mar 042 24 Mar 04 Y-- Estonia12 Mar 042 17 Mar 04 --- Slovakia15 Mar 043 22 Mar 04 Y-- Poland17-18 Mar 042 17,18 Mar 04 - 07 Apr 04 --- Slovenia22 Mar 042 24,29 Mar 04 - 01, 08 Apr 04 -YY Netherlands25-26 Mar 044 16 Mar 04 - 02,08,18 Apr 04 Y-Y 19 + 4101211410

6. RAINS emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000 SO 2 VOC NO x NH 3 National inventoryRAINS estimate

7. Economic drivers for emission projections

8. Projections of economic activities used for the CAFE baseline scenarios Energy Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU countries, with climate measures (carbon price 12-20 /t CO 2 ) –Including national comments received after April DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES calculations for all 25 EU countries, without further climate measures) National projections (10 countries) - with climate measures? Agriculture DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries, pre-CAP reform National projections (10 countries)

9. Economic drivers assumed for the PRIMES energy projections

10. CO 2 emissions of the PRIMES projections [Mt] New Member StatesEU-15Kyoto target EU-15Kyoto target EU-25 With climate measures No further climate measures

11. National projections considered for the CAFE baseline Energy Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Italy Portugal Slovenia Sweden UK Agriculture Austria Denmark France Ireland Italy Latvia Netherlands Portugal Slovenia UK

12. CO 2 emissions 2015 relative to 2000

13. SO 2 emissions

14. SO 2 emissions by sector With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryDomesticTransportAgricultureIndustrial processes NEC emission ceiling

15. SO 2 emissions projected for 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings

16. Range of SO 2 emission projections [kt] ----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions

17. SO 2 emissions With climate measures scenario [kt]

18. NO x emissions

19. NO x emissions by sector With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryDomesticTransportAgricultureIndustrial processes NEC emission ceiling

20. NO x emissions With climate measures scenario, EU-25

21. NO x emissions projected for 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings

22. Range of NO x emission projections [kt] ----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions

23. NO x emissions With climate measures scenario [kt]

24. VOC emissions

25. VOC emissions With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryHouseholds TransportAgricultureSolvents WasteNational Emission Ceilings

26. VOC emissions projected for 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings

27. NH 3 emissions

28. NH 3 emissions Pre-CAP reform scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryDomesticTransportAgricultureIndustrial processes NEC emission ceiling

29. NH 3 emissions projected for 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings

30. Primary PM emissions

31. PM10 RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000 PM2.5 National inventoryRAINS estimate

32. PM2.5 emissions by sector With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryDomesticTransportAgricultureIndustrial processes NEC emission ceiling

33. Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions With climate measures scenario, EU-15

34. Black carbon emissions With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther

35. Conclusions While accounting for continued economic growth … National emissions of air pollutants will decrease up to 2020: SO 2 -65%, NO x -50%, VOC -45%, NH 3 -4%, PM2.5 -45% Due to structural changes and emission control legislation Relevance of sectors for further measures will change. –Small combustion sources! –Industrial processes, solvents! –Off-road vehicles and machinery! Emissions from maritime activities will surpass land-based emissions of EU-25

36. The baseline scenario on the Web All country- and sector-specific results of the baseline scenarios are available at: www.iiasa.ac.at/rains