1. M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Key findings

2. 1) Emissions will further decline Present legislation and structural change will significantly reduce air pollution in the future Expected changes between 2000 and 2020 (EU-25): –SO 2: -65% –NO x :-50% –VOC: -45% –NH 3 : -4% –PM2.5: -45%

3. 2) But: Air quality remains threat to human health In 2020: Approximately 5 months loss in life expectancy due to PM Several 1000s premature deaths due to ozone

4. 3) Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached European forests –will continue be exposed to ozone up to six times above sustainable levels –150.000 km 2 (13%) will receive unsustainable acid deposition Many Natura2000 areas remain unprotected from acidification 13% of Swedish lakes will face excess of critical loads 55% of European ecosystems will receive too high nitrogen deposition, endangering bio-diversity

5. 4) Relevance of sources will change Traditional large polluters will reduce their contributions Other sources will take over: –SO 2 : Ships, industrial processes, small sources –NO x : Ships, diesel heavy duty vehicles, off-road –VOC: Solvents –NH 3 : Agriculture –PM: Wood burning, industrial processes Impacts on population exposure needs to be further explored

6. 5) Ships will surpass land-based EU sources SO 2 NO x

7. 6) Energy projections will influence future emissions Alternative energy projections lead to different emissions However, within realistic limits, baseline emission projections are robust But: Potential and costs for further measures is critically influenced by projected energy structure