1. Salmon and society: Lessons from the Pacific Northwest Robin Waples Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service N.O.A.A Seattle, WA USA

2. Subtext: Tell us how you #@&%ed it up down there so we will feel better [and, perhaps, can avoid the same problems]

3. Number of stocks Special Concern 54 Moderate Extinction Risk 58 High Extinction Risk 101 Extinct<100 Pacific salmon stocks at risk Nehlsen et al. 1991

4. Coho salmon landings ocean troll & sport fisheries

5. Status review scorecard Not SpeciesETCListed Chinook 2 7 1 7 Chum - 2 - 2 Coho - 3 2 1 Cutthroat -(1) 1 4 Pink - - - 2 Sockeye 1 1 - 5 Steelhead 2 8 2 3 Totals 5 22 6 24

6. Cultural, economic, spiritual reasons Loss of population diversity limits evolutionary potential of the species Life history diversity Promotes efficient use of natural resources Buffers productivity Keystone species in terrestrial (and marine) ecosystems Why is salmon conservation important?

7. Upstream : National Research Council 1996 General conclusion: “The long-term survival of salmon depends crucially on a diverse and rich store of genetic variation.”

8. There are plenty of salmon in Alaska Salmon are colonizing species Salmon have plastic life-history features Common counterarguments

9. "singularly unsuccessful in producing new anadromous stocks” Stock transfers of Pacific salmon: Withler 1982 Stock transfers of O. nerka: Percent successful Kokanee90 Sockeye<5 Wood 1995

10. Risk/recovery factors for Pacific salmon Habitat Harvest Hatcheries Hydropower Misc (e.g., invasive species; natural variability)

12. 214 Pacific salmon stocks at risk Nehlsen et al. 1991 Primary factors for decline : Habitat loss/degradation92% Overharvest49% Hatchery interactions49%

13. Habitat requirements for Pacific salmon Ample, high quality water Aerated spawning gravels Juvenile rearing areas Unimpeded migration routes

15. Skagit River Basin Historical habitat Percent change Sloughs Side channel Distributary Tributaries Hydromodified Nonhydromodified Above culverts Above dams Main stem Lakes 860,100 m 2 431,200 m 2 283,500 m 2 463,600 m 2 124,200 m 2 43,400 m 2 632.4 km 735 ha -45% -64% -15% -23% -100% -7% +404% Habitat type Beechie et al. 1994

16. Historical changes in habitat of Puget Sound estuaries

17. 40 30 20 10 0 0603020104050 Biotic integrity Coho/Cutthroat Ratio Biotic Integrity Watershed urbanization (%TIA) Horner and May 1998 2 4 6

18. Mean number of years between 5-year flood events Pristine5 Urbanized1.1 Booth 1991

19. Human Population Growth in Pierce, King, and Snohomish Counties, 1860-1990

20. Some dam impacts are obvious

21. Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon redds Snake River Dam construction Others only appear to be obvious

22. Ocean conditions (PDO) have shifted Good Poor Hydropower system completed

23. 6062646668707274767880828486889092949698 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Outmigration Year Juvenile Survival in Hydrosystem from Raymond 1988 Williams et al. 2001 No data Fish passage improvements Other impacts are less clear Snake River spring/summer chinook smolts

24. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980 1990 Salmon landings (millions of pounds) 1935 Fishwheels prohibited 1950 Seines, traps, set nets prohibited 1965 Last Summer season 1977 Last spring season 1988 Last sockeye season Columbia River Salmon harvest

25. Recruits Spawners MSY Replacement Spawners

26. Snake River Steelhead 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 1960197019801990 Adult Run Size Total Natural

27. Long-term sustainability unproven Catastrophic failure Political and funding uncertainties Erosion of ecological/genetic/life history diversity Loss of fitness and productivity Hatcheries don’t promote functioning natural ecosystems Why is it important to conserve wild salmonids--what about hatcheries?

28. Hatchery vs. wild environments Similarities Water Differences Food Substrate Density Temperature Flow regime Competitors Predators

29. 2.00 1.60 1.20 0.80 0.40 0.00 -0.40 0255075100 Oregon steelhead Local Non-Local Expected From Chilcote 1998 Productivity Percent hatchery 25

30. 1020304050 1020304050 -3 -2 0 1 2 Survival wild chinook (log) Number of hatchery spring chinook released (millions) r 2 = 0.06r 2 = 0.73 Average Ocean ProductivityPoor Ocean Productivity Levin et al. 2001

31. Risks Benefits

32. Types of benefits to be considered Natural pops Harvest Mitigation Treaty obligations Public education Natural pops ConservationGeneral

33. Supplementation review Was it met? Objective Y N ? Broodstock collection (representative) Age11 3 8 Run timing 10 2 10 Integrity17 5 - Hatchery survival Prespawning (90%)12 6 4 Egg-smolt (70%)19 2 1 Adult-adult (2x) 12 4 6 Population increase (20%) 811 3 Natural spawning (comparable) 1 219 Sustainable - 220 Waples et al. in press

34. How insulated are wilderness areas from external impacts?

35. A by-product of the life cycle Most biomass of salmon is acquired at sea Results in a transfer of marine nutrients to terrestrial systems Adult spawners Directly consumed by cohort of 2000 Could indirectly affect salmon by fueling 1 o and 2 o production in streams

36. Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis

37. Brook trout absent 050010001500 Juvenile chinook density 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Chinook survival 05001000 1500 Brook trout present Achord et al. 2003

38. Gustafson et al. in prep

39. Lawson 1993

40. Oregon coast coho Smolt-adult survival (%) Year

42. Vertical slides here

43. Gustafson et al. in prep

44. 1) Puget Sound 3 2) Willamette/LCR 5 3) Interior Columbia 7 4) Oregon Coast 1 5) S. Oregon/N. CA 1 6) North-central CA 3 7) South-central CA 2 8) Central Valley 3 Total 25 Listed ESUs Domain

45. ABC Which ESUs are viable? X X X X X X XX X X

46. Risk High MediumLow Total 3 511 North 2 3 7 South 1 2 4 Summer 2 2 0 Winter 1 311 Wild 3 3 2 Hatchery 0 2 9 Diversity

47. Conclusions Causes of salmon declines can be complex –FW habitat most pervasive threat –Habitat problems are caused by people –Habitat that appears pristine may not be Salmon populations generally are not replaceable on ecological time scales Long-term effects of hatcheries on natural populations are uncertain but may be profound In PNW much has been lost, but much remains. Region is at a pivotal point Fluctuating ocean cycles + declining FW productivity = trouble for salmon