1. Thomas Boermans, Unit Manager Built Environment Strategies Brussels, 29 th November 2011 Economic effects of investing in energy efficiency in buildings - the BEAM² Model EC WORKSHOP, COHESION POLICY INVESTING IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS

2. © ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans Agenda Energy efficiency in buildings – background Baltic Energy Efficiency Network (BEEN) Economic impacts of EE in buildings at EU level Some recommendations

3. © ECOFYS | | The buildings sector: significant and cost effective potential Source: Ecofys, project SERPEC-CC for European Commission DG-Environment, 2009 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

4. © ECOFYS | | The (political) vision Cost optimal requirementsnearly zero energy 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

5. © ECOFYS | | The comitology process Cost optimal requirementsnearly zero energy see also www.bpie.eu 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

6. © ECOFYS | | Timelines – new buildings 2010202020XX Cost optimal requirementsnearly zero energy ??? 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

7. © ECOFYS | | Timelines - retrofit 201020XX20YY Cost optimal requirements deep renovation ? ??? 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

8. © ECOFYS | | Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN Assessment of current status of energy efficient refurbishments in Baltic sea region Assessment of energy- and CO 2 saving potentials & job effects Development of strategies & instruments to promote energy efficient refurbishment focus on multi-storey housing built 1950 - 1990. Implementation of three best practice projects client: Berlin Senate, BMVBS, EU 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

9. © ECOFYS | | Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

10. © ECOFYS | | Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

11. © ECOFYS | | Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

12. © ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans BEAM²

13. © ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans BEAM²

14. © ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans Reference Scenario Germany CO 2 -mitigating potential for heating and hot water in residential and non-residential buildings up to 2010 from study evaluation and forecast until 2020. For 2010-2020, three scenarios with different retrofit-rates (1.0%, 1.4% and 1.8%) are calculated, resulting in different emission paths. Not climate corrected.

15. © ECOFYS | | Financing retrofit – some numbers Example for timeframe 2010 to 2020 for EU27 Increase retrofit rate from 1,7 % p.a. (BAU) to 2,8% Improved ambition level (in the area of cost optimality) Estimated results* Additional energy related investment: 30 billion p.a. Total energy related investment: 65 billion p.a. Total invest (energy and non-energy): 100 billion p.a. (turnover building industry in 2009: 1,2 trillion EURO) Negative CO 2 abatement costs * based on research done by Ecofys in the framework of the impact assessment of the EPBD recast / energy saving action plan (using BEAM²) 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

16. © ECOFYS | | Different renovation tracks – indicative only 20102050202020302040 track 1 track 2 Track 1: fast renovation: (very) high speed, average ambition level Track 2: deep renovation: average speed, (very) high ambition level CO 2 – emissions EU building stock 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

17. © ECOFYS | | Enabling factors for retrofit (examples) Political/Legal review (EU/national) definitions of major renovation, see www.eceee.org/press/Extending_EE_requirements/ www.eceee.org/press/Extending_EE_requirements/ define ambition level for deep renovation secure balance of interests in investor user conflict Financial/fiscal provide soft loans at reduced interest rates and longer loan duration (e.g. 20 years, state guarantees) fiscal instruments (e.g. reduced VAT) Information information/realisation campaigns ensure proper training and capacity building 29/11/2011Thomas Boermans

18. Unit Manager Built Environment Strategies E: t. boermans@ecofys.com T: +49 221 270 70-151 W: www.ecofys.com