1. Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Assessment (FLIS) Development of a platform to support long-term decision making

2. Indicators and models

3. Aim
Aim is to complement the available outlook perspectives of the EEA indicators, streamline links with data at the country level and present European outlooks in the global context.
Further, the aim is to facilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in regular environment reporting activities, and to help information systems capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues.
The primary aim of the Model inventory is to provide an information source about modelling tools used to produce forward-looking indicators and analyses. The online model inventory is intended to establish an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results.

4. Current activities Current EEA/FLIS work
Currently, 44 forward-looking indicators are published on the EEA scenario-website and managed by the EEA Indicator Management Service (IMS) for Outlooks. They address 9 topics, from socio-economics to biodiversity.
Models are key tool for developing forward-looking indicators. Currently, the online model inventory is a key product to support . It is intended to have two main uses:
To provide an information source about modelling tools to produce forward-looking indicators and analyses
To establish an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results.
Main outputs:
Catalogue of forward-looking indicators (EEA Technical report)Forward-looking indicators published on the EEA Scenarios web site
Use of forward-looking indicators in Part B of SOER 2010
Evaluation of forward-looking indicators - methodology and evaluation of 44 indicators (internal report)
On-line model inventory on the web

5. Forward-looking indicators: Definition
present quantitative information on issues or aspects of the environment
are estimates of future developments usually based on available data, past trends and/or models

6. Forward-looking indicators: Use
Forward-looking indicators can be used to:
Discuss possible short-medium term policy options
Inform distance to target analyses
Identify possible impacts under defined conditions and policy frameworks
Help to improve the consistency of assessments related to the past, present and future
Facilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in regular environment reporting activities and systems
Help existing information systems capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues

7. Forward-looking indicators: Management
EEA, latest update 2008
Software: IMS outlooks
Outlook indicators in the Indicator management service (IMS)
A review of forward-looking indicators identified those relevant for EEA environmental assessments, primarily linked to EEA CSI
Relevant indicators entered in the IMS – as outlook indicators
In IMS users can select indicators relevant to themes (energy, air pollution)
Allows indicators for past, present and forward-looking information to be compared

8. Forward-looking indicators: Linking CSI with outlooks
Example – energy
EEA Core Set of Indicators (CSI) on energy: 5 indicators
Outlook indicators for energy: 10 indicators
Final energy consumption by sector (CSI27)
Final energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 48)
Final energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 11)
Total primary energy intensity (CSI28)
Total energy intensity – outlook from EEA (outlook 49)
Primary energy consumption by fuel (CSI29)
Total energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 30)
Total energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 50)
Total electricity consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 51)
Total electricity consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 28)
Renewable primary energy consumption (CSI30)
Renewable energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 52)
Renewable energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 39)
Renewable electricity consumption (CSI31)
Renewable electricity – outlook from EEA (outlook 53)

9. Forward-looking indicators: Example from W. Balkans
[Source: EEA (2010) Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns]

10. Evaluation of indicators: criteria
1. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target?
7. Is the indicator clear, transparent and easy to understand?
2. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target?
8. Is the indicator conceptually and methodologically described and well founded?
3. Is the indicator based on readily available and routinely available data?
9. Is scenario analysis available for that indicator?
4. Is the indicator consistent in spatial coverage and covering most of EEA and collaborating and neighbourhood countries?
10. Is the indicator timely (i.e. can it be produced in reasonable and “useful” time)?
5. Does the indicator present data at the appropriate temporal coverage and sufficiently detailed time trends?
11. Is the indicator well documented and of known quality? (i.e. Is the indicator used by other international organizations)?
6. Is the indicator presented at the appropriate geographical resolution (EEA country groupings) or can be disaggregated to the national level?
12. Does an institutional agreement exist between EEA and indicator producer to produce forward- looking indicators?

11. Evaluation of indicators: results

12. Evaluation of indicators: results
Comparison
AGRI-F01/ AGRI-F02

13. Forward-looking indicators: SWOT analysis
Strengths
Scrutiny of underlying models
Can help to communicate clearly
High number of indicators with policy relevance
Regulator updates possible via IMS
Weaknesses
Difficulty communicating assumptions and uncertainties
Capture of non-numerical information
Not available for all themes or spatial scales
Problems with compatibility
Only as strong as models used
Opportunities
Development of new or improved indicators
Linkage to policy targets
Greater use in policy development and decision-making
Threats
Indicator availability could drive policy decisions
Lack of institutional arrangements for regular updates

14. Forward-looking indicators: Future developments?
Update/ expand?
Provide guidelines for selection?
Improve management?
Establish of cooperation with countries and institutions for updata and management and use of the indicators?

15. Forward-looking indicators: Further information
EEA website – environmental scenarios/indicators
Indicator Management Service (IMS)
Catalogue of forward-looking indicators from selected sources
Overview of available outlook indicators for South Eastern Europe (SEE) and Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asian countries (EECCA)

16. Models: Definition Models
Are often mathematical representations or computer simulations that attempt to describe the characteristics or relationships of physical events or socio-economic developments
[Source: EEA Technical Report no. 11/2008]
Note: models also provide input to scenarios, drivers and trend analyses etc. – as well as developing indicators

17. Models: Use
Can simulate environmental change, e.g. at global, European and other scales
Provide the data to develop and support forward-looking indicators
Can be developed and used as education and awareness-raising tools
Participatory models can be use in policy making for negotiation processes

18. Models: FLIS online inventory
Provides an information source about modelling tools that can be used to underpin current and future state of the environment assessments in Europe
Establishes an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results
Plays a role in fostering exchanges between research communities to improve existing or develop new modelling tools that can support forward-looking environmental assessments

19. Models: FLIS online inventory
Thematic focus
IMS category
Agriculture
Air quality
Air pollution
Biodiversity
Climate
Climate change
Energy
Land use
Terrestrial
Forest
Transport
Waste and material flows
Waste
Water
Demography
(Socio-economic)
Economy
Tourism
Integrated
Thematic focus of models in FLIS and corresponding IMS categories

20. Models: What is available?
Example – Energy
Models related to energy – 9 models
Models providing projections on energy development in future
WEM – IEA's
World Energy Model Prometheus
Models related to energy sector impacts on the environment
ECO2-Regio / ECO2-Privat
RAINS-Europe (GAINS)
Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS)
EcoSense
Other models
V GAS
International Futures

21. Models: SWOT analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Provide a quantitative base for forward-looking assessments
Can be combined with participative approaches
Multiple models can be used
Weaknesses
Can become rapidly outdated
Only as strong as the underlying methods and assumptions
Significant gaps in thematic areas
Consistency, comparability difficult when using multiple models
Opportunities
Awareness of models can be higher
Opportunities to facilitate their use
Exchanges between research groups can improve models
Model ‘suites’
Promote acceptance of pan-European models
Threats
Systematic evaluation of models is lacking
Are imperfect representations but can appear authoritative

22. Models: Example inventory content
Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model
Short summary of model
The RAINS model provides a tool for analysis of reduction strategies for air pollutants. The model combines information on economic and energy development, emission control potentials and costs, atmospheric dispersion characteristics and environmental sensitivities towards air pollution. The model addresses threats to human health posed by fine particulates and ground-level ozone as well as risk of ecosystems damage from air pollutants.
Model dimensions
Thematic coverage
Air
Energy
Transport
Agriculture
Input (key drivers)
Economic development
Sectoral activity (for agriculture, transport, energy, fuels etc.)
Outputs (key indicators)
Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), ammonia (NH3), non-methane — volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), particulate matter (PM)
Air pollution effect of energy consumption, transport and agriculture
Health impact and acidification
Geographical coverage
Coverage: almost all European countries, incl. the European part of Russia
National versions available for Italy and the Netherlands (also RAINS versions for other — regions, e.g. Asia, available)
Resolution: country-level (can be linked with finer resolution dispersion models)
Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model

23. Models: Further information
EEA Online Inventory of Models
Modelling tools for the 2010 State of the Environment and Outlook Report – model inventory and participative model inventory
Various
Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory

24. Thank you!