1. The Future of Metals Center for Industrial Ecology Thomas E. Graedel
Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
The Future of Metals
Thomas E. Graedel
Yale University

2. History of Metals Production??
Mudd, 2009, Sustainability of Mining ...

3. Trends in Ore Grades … ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓
Mudd, 2009, Sustainability of Mining ...

4. The Host-Companion Flower Garden of Metals
© Yale University, 2009,
after Meskers and Hagelüken

5. Computer Chip Elemental Contents
11 Elements
+4 Elements
+45 Elements
(Potential)
Modern computer chips make use of more than half the periodic table. This suggests that there may be some situations where supply limitations could occur because suitable substitutes are not available.
Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006

6. The Yale Criticality Project Funding: US National Science Foundation and several corporations and organizations
In 2007, a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences was asked to address the issue of resource sustainability.

7. The NRC Criticality Matrix and the “Region of Danger”
High
Region of
Danger
Impact of Supply Restriction
A product designer or long-term purchaser should try to avoid materials that have both high supply risk and for which the impact of supply restriction would be high. The committee referred to this region as the “region of danger”.
Low
Low High
Supply Risk

8. Goals of the Yale Criticality Project
Goal 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical”

9. Supply Risk Components Supply Risk National and Corporate - τD100
Geological, Technological, Economic Considerations ⅓
Expanded Time to Depletion
Percentage
as Companion %
Social & Regulatory Considerations ⅓
Policy
Potential Index
100 - PPI
Human Development Index
100 - EPI
Geopolitical Considerations ⅓
World Governance Indicator
100-WGI
Global Deposit Concentration
HHI
Weight
Weight
Norm.

10. Politically unstable nations pose a higher risk of supply restriction
Economic Intelligence Unit : Political Instability Index (PII)
2009/10 Political Instability Index
Components
Underlying vulnerability
Inequality
State history
Corruption
Ethnic fragmentation
Trust in institutions
Status of minorities
History of political instability
Proclivity to labor unrest
Level of social provision
A country’s neighborhood
Regime type
Regime type and factionalism 20 40 50 30 60 80 90
100 70 10
Transformed Score Scale
Source: The Economist. “Political Instability Index: Vulnerability to social and political unrest.”
This index (or its components) can be utilized for our purpose
Underlying vulnerability
0 if lower than 40
1. Inequality Measured by Gini coefficient
1 if 40-50
2. State history Measured according to date of independence
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008; Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.
2 if higher than 50
0 if before 1900
Source: CIA, Factbook.
2 if after 1950
1 if between 1900 and 1950
0 for low
3. Corruption Economist Intelligence Unit ratings
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.
2 for high
1 for moderate
4. Ethnic fragmentation Ethnic fractionalization index (0 to 100 scale)
1if 30 to 50
0 if lower than 30
0 if more than 50%
5. Trust in institutions Percentage of population that trusts/has confidence in parliament
Source: Alesina Alberto et al, "Fractionalization", NBER Working Paper 9411, 2003.
Sources: The Euro, Latino, Africa and Asia Barometer polls; World Values Survey.
2 if less than 30% %
6. Status of minorities High rates of economic or political discrimination against minorities. Based on latest available assessment & scoring on 0 (no discrimination) to 4 (extreme discrimination) scale by Minorities at Risk Project (MRP). The MRP defines extreme discrimination (score of 4) if any minority group is subject to public policies that constitute formal exclusion and/or recurring repression, and that substantially restrict the groups' economic opportunities or political participation. There is significant discrimination (score of 3) if minority group suffers from significant poverty and under-representation owing to prevailing social practices by dominant group.
2 if extreme discrimination (if score of 4 for any minority by MRP)
1 if significant discrimination (if score of 3 by for any minority by MRP)
0 if low or no discrimination (MRP scores lower than 3)
0 if no recorded episode
7. History of political instability Significant episodes or events of political instability (regime change) as recorded by Political Instability Task Force (PITF)
Source: PITF database.
2 if two or more episodes
1 if one major episode
8. Proclivity to labor unrest Risk of labor unrest
2 if high
1 if moderate
0 if low
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Risk Briefing.
1 if ratio between actual and predicted infant mortality rate is greater than 1.1 but less than 1.5
0 if the actual infant mortality rate is lower than predicted, or if the actual rate does not exceed the predicted rate by a significant margin
9. Level of social provision Measured on the basis of the "expected" infant mortality rate; based on residuals from a regression of the natural logarithm of the infant mortality rate on the logarithm of GPP per head US$ at purchasing power parity (PPP) for 2006.
2 if ratio between actual and predicted infant mortality rate is greater than 1.5
0 if index is less than 5.8
10. A country's neighborhood Based on the average vulnerability index (calculated on the basis of all indicators except the neighborhood indicator) for all of the country's geographic neighbors.
Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008.
2 if index is higher than 6.3
1 if index is 5.8 to 6.3
2 if either a non-consolidated, "flawed" democracy or a hybrid regime (neither a democracy nor an autocracy)
0 if either a full democracy or authoritarian regime
11. Regime type Based on classification of political regimes, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy
12.Regime type and factionalism The interaction of regime type with the existence of political factionalism (according to Polity IV database). According to Polity, factionalism is defined as polities with parochial (possibly, but not necessarily, ethnic-based) political factions that regularly compete for political influence to promote particularist agendas and favor heavily group members to the detriment of a common agenda.
4 if a country is both an intermediate regime and suffers from factionalism
II. Economic distress
0 if not
Growth in incomes Growth in real GDP per head in if forecast growth in real GDP per head is positive, with minimal risks that it could be negative
2 if a forecast decline in GDP per head is greater than by 4% or there is a significant risk that this could occur
1 if a fall in GDP per head is forecast or there is a significant risk of that occurring, but the decline is less than by 4%
0 if forecast unemployment rate is less than 6% and there are only minimal risks that it could be higher than 6%
2. Unemployment rate, %.
1 if a forecast unemployment rate is higher than 6% or there is a significant risk of that occurring, but the rate does not surpass 10%
2 if a forecast unemployment rate is higher than 10% or there is a significant risk that this could occur
0 if more than US$12,000
3. Level of income per head Measured by GDP per head at PPP, US$ in 2007, on the assumption that richer countries can more easily withstand economic distress
Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; International Labour Organisation.
2 if less than US$3,000
1 if between US$3,000 and US$12,000
II. Economic distress
Growth in incomes
Unemployment
Level of income per head

11. Vulnerability- Corporate Level
Ability to Innovate
Impact of Supply Restriction
Weight 1
Substitutability ⅓
Importance
% of impacted revenue
Ability to Pass-through Costs
Importance to Corporate Strategy
Substitute Performance
Substitute Availability
Environmental Impact Ratio
Price Ratio
Components

12. The Three-Axis Criticality Evaluation ConceptEI

13. Goals of the Yale Criticality Project
Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical”
Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals (example – copper group [Cu, As, Ag, Au, Se, Te])

14. Random Results in Criticality AssessmentEC
IDA IW
NEDO
NRC
Oakd. Hollins
South
Korea Cu No
Maybe -- As Se
Yes Ag Te Au

15. Copper Group Criticality (Global)

16. Copper Group Criticality for Solar Power, Inc. (Fictional)

17. Goals of the Yale Criticality Project
Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical”
Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals
Year 3: Create a family of scenarios to study the possible evolution of metal criticality

18. 2008 EI
ISR SR

19. Summary
The long-run availability of the metals of modern technology is uncertain, and not well-studied
Existing attempts to rank the criticality of metals use diverse approaches, and reach diverse conclusions
The Yale project, aimed at generating detailed, defendable evaluations, will begin publishing results in early in 2012

21. Substitution in Optoelectronics
© C. Meskers, Umicore

22. The European Union Critical Raw Materials Project April, 2009 – April, 2010
In 2007, a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences was asked to address the issue of resource sustainability.

24. RE
PGM Ge Nb W

25. End-of-life recycling rates for sixty-two metals
<1%
1-10%
>10-25%
>25-50%
>50%
T. Graedel et al., J. Industrial Ecology, in press, 2011

26. Key Questions to be Answered
What components should be included?
How can the inclusion of these components be justified?
How can these components be evaluated?
How should the component evaluations be aggregated?