1. Knowledge base for Forward- Looking Information and Assessment (FLIS) Development of a platform to support long-term decision making

2. Introduction and overview of FLIS: The need to look ahead The world we have made, as a result of thinking we have done thus far, creates problems we can not solve at the same level of thinking at which we created them. (Einstein) For future success in almost any area, we have to incorporate future effects into our current decision policy making. (Commissioner Potočnik) New thinking Preparedness

3. Introduction and overview of FLIS: What forward-looking assessments provide Forward-looking assessment can: Frame policies by identifying priority, warning signals and emerging issues reflecting on different options for the future identify driving forces and uncertainties Check whether and how targets can be met, their relevance Develop robust measures and precautionary actions Analyse cause-effect relationships Anticipate possible surprises, discontinuities, shocks Facilitate short and long-term thinking in a structured way

4. Introduction and overview of FLIS: Gaps in environmental information systems to be addressed A 2007 EEA report identified the need to: Develop more targeted, well designed and sound forward- looking assessments that integrate environment with socio- economic issues Improve and further develop the forward-looking components of environmental information systems –including future perspectives routinely in environment reporting activities and systems –adapting existing information systems to regularly capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues Increase expertise and resources to carry out forward- looking studies at different levels

5. Introduction and overview of FLIS: Future thinking process to support long-term perspectives in decision making

6. Introduction and overview of FLIS: Relationship to system neighbours

7. Introduction and overview of FLIS: EEA activities to develop FLIS 2010/2011 Establishment of NRC FLIS, Coordination group, working groups Development of online information management structure EEA financial support Countries contributions coordinated through NFPs and MB

8. Introduction and overview of FLIS: SEIS principles in FLIS Information should be readily accessible for end users and public authorities at all levels to enable them to assess SoE, effectiveness of policies and design new policies in a timely manner Information should be collected once and shared with others for many purposes Managed as close to source as possible Enable comparisons at appropriate geographical scale Information should be supported through common, free, open source standards and if possible software tools

9. Introduction and overview of FLIS: FLIS Management Currently FLIS is managed by the EEA –Information collection via contractors –Content management systems Forward loking indicators – IMS Models – Model Inventry Scenarios – Inventory with AoA tools or SENSE system In the future –Gradual move to decentralised sytem with countries & relevant organisations

10. Introduction and overview of FLIS: Summary of the state of development of FLIS components Large amount of analysis on global drivers and megatrends completed, European partly Integration report and factsheets – pending Information to be structured and added to online FLIS 2010 / early 2011 with associated indicators Inventory and evaluation of forward-looking indicators complete Outlook indicators included in IMS IMS to be updated / supplemented as new indicators are available Inventories of models completed (models and participative models) Model factsheets included in online inventory of models Inventory to be updated / added to by experts Catalogue of scenarios completed (pending publication) Scenario factsheets (from catalogue) to be entered into online inventory of scenarios Inventory to be updated / added to by experts EEA glossary and environmental thesaurus (GEMET) in place Online inventory of methods together with definition of terms to be developed (2010 – 2011) Consideration being given to development of guidelines for appropriate selection and use of methods Numerous EIONET events and meetings completed and planned, OSCE, ENVSEC planned Specific FLIS capacity building to be developed BLOSSOM project to report – late 2010 / early 2011

11. Drivers and trends

12. Aims The aim is to provide the updated information on the main trends and their interlinkages at different spatial scales and in different timeframes which are influencing European environment. Their impacts to environment will be analysed as well. Developing a shared understanding of the nature of long-term drivers and trends and their influence on Europes environment can be an important tool in developing appropriate short and long-term policy responses within countries and at the European scale.

13. Current activities A first set of 11 global megatrends has already been identified and described within the state of environment report (SOER 2010), Global megatrends assessment. Main drivers and key uncertainties are presented. European megatrends has been developed in draft to support long term research strategy (trends, drivers, uncertainties, interlinkages, research gaps) Main outputs: -SOER 2010, Megatrends assessment -Megatrend factsheets and Partial analyses on impacts to EU environment -EEA Research foresight – European drivers for long term research strategy

14. Drivers: the social, demographic technological, economic, environmental and political developments in societies Trend: the general direction in which something tends to move Megatrends: trends and groups of trends that are expected to extend over decades, changing slowly and exerting considerable force across wide array of areas of human society Drivers and trends: Definitions

15. Long term trends until 2050/2100 These drivers will influence Europes environment over the coming decades An analysis of global drivers can provide an important tool for developing short and long-term policy responses Such an analysis is being used in the SOER 2010 process (Part A) Drivers and trends: global drivers

16. Drivers and trends: 11 global megatrends Social megatrendsIncreasing global divergence in population trends: populations aging, growing and migrating Living in an urban world: spreading cities and spiralling consumption Changing patterns of disease burden globally and the risk of new pandemics Technological megatrends Accelerating technologies: racing into the unknown Economic megatrends Continued economic growth Global power shift – from a uni-polar to a multi-polar world Intensified global competition for resources Environmental megatrends Decreasing stocks of natural resources Increasing severity of the consequences of climate change Increasing unsustainable environmental pollution load Political megatrendsGovernance and regulation: increasing fragmentation by converging outcomes

17. Drivers and trends: Megatrend factsheet template Factsheet elementNote on contents IndicatorsDescription of quantitative indicators which the trend analysis is based on Link to outlook indicators in the IMS and any models used to generate indicators Driving forcesSummary of key drivers identified NarrativesShort narrative description of the megatrend UncertaintiesDescription of key uncertainties in assessment ImpactsSummary of predicted key impacts on European environment Policy implicationsSummary of policy implications of changes and impacts identified Inter-linkagesIdentification of links to and overlaps with other trends and drivers Methodology descriptionShort description of the methodology used to develop analysis References and links to other information Key references and links

18. Drivers and trends: SWOT analysis Strengths Relevance for European environmental policy Provide big-picture analyses and understand complexity and inter- connectedness Identify European implications of global drivers and trends Weaknesses New area of study A large number of uncertainties Limited data in some areas Megatrends by their nature are neither static nor permanent Single set of studies Risk that inclusion may be seen as endorsement Opportunities Expansion of analyses Development of online resources (under FLIS) Opportunity for agreement on underlying conditions for scenarios and modelling Threats Lack of institutional capacity to make use of megatrends analysis Time and resource intensive to develop

19. Development of short, summary factsheets for online inventory Synthesis analysis to enable countries to link and compare global and European drivers to national drivers and responses Clear qualitative description of specific environmental implications and impacts to support policy responses Development of an agreed EEA definition of the term megatrend Ensure uncertainties are communicated clearly Drivers and trends: SWOT – Gaps identified

20. Drivers and trends: Further information EEA Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability: European drivers for long term research agenda http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_ resources/reports/Final_Literature_Re view_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf EEA Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability: Workshop on Mega-trends and Surprises http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_ resources/reports/ResearchForesightS ummary- presentations_and_recommendations- 14-15ay07.pdf Megatrends integration report and factsheets To be available through FLIS – online inventory

21. Indicators and models

22. Aim Aim is to complement the available outlook perspectives of the EEA indicators, streamline links with data at the country level and present European outlooks in the global context. Further, the aim is to facilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in regular environment reporting activities, and to help information systems capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues.

23. Current activities Current EEA/FLIS work Currently, 44 forward-looking indicators are published on the EEA scenario- website and managed by the EEA Indicator Management Service (IMS) for Outlooks. They address 9 topics, from socio-economics to biodiversity. Models are key tool for developing forward-looking indicators. Currently, the online model inventory is a key product to support. It is intended to have two main uses: –To provide an information source about modelling tools to produce forward- looking indicators and analyses –To establish an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results. Main outputs: Catalogue of forward-looking indicators (EEA Technical report)Forward- looking indicators published on the EEA Scenarios web site Use of forward-looking indicators in Part B of SOER 2010 Evaluation of forward-looking indicators - methodology and evaluation of 44 indicators (internal report) On-line model inventory on the web

24. Forward-looking indicators: present quantitative information on issues or aspects of the environment are estimates of future developments usually based on available data, past trends and/or models Forward-looking indicators: Definition

25. Forward-looking indicators can be used to: Discuss possible short-medium term policy options Inform distance to target analyses Identify possible impacts under defined conditions and policy frameworks Help to improve the consistency of assessments related to the past, present and future Facilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in regular environment reporting activities and systems Help existing information systems capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues Forward-looking indicators: Use

26. EEA, latest update 2008 Software: IMS outlooks Outlook indicators in the Indicator management service (IMS) –A review of forward-looking indicators identified those relevant for EEA environmental assessments, primarily linked to EEA CSI –Relevant indicators entered in the IMS – as outlook indicators –In IMS users can select indicators relevant to themes (energy, air pollution) –Allows indicators for past, present and forward-looking information to be compared http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators Forward-looking indicators: Management

27. Example – energy Forward-looking indicators: Linking CSI with outlooks EEA Core Set of Indicators (CSI) on energy: 5 indicators Outlook indicators for energy: 10 indicators Final energy consumption by sector (CSI27) Final energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 48) Final energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 11) Total primary energy intensity (CSI28)Total energy intensity – outlook from EEA (outlook 49) Primary energy consumption by fuel (CSI29) Total energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 30) Total energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 50) Total electricity consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 51) Total electricity consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 28) Renewable primary energy consumption (CSI30) Renewable energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 52) Renewable energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 39) Renewable electricity consumption (CSI31) Renewable electricity – outlook from EEA (outlook 53)

28. Forward-looking indicators: Example from W. Balkans [ Source: EEA (2010) Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns ]

29. Evaluation of indicators: criteria 1. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target? 7. Is the indicator clear, transparent and easy to understand? 2. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target? 8. Is the indicator conceptually and methodologically described and well founded? 3. Is the indicator based on readily available and routinely available data? 9. Is scenario analysis available for that indicator? 4. Is the indicator consistent in spatial coverage and covering most of EEA and collaborating and neighbourhood countries? 10. Is the indicator timely (i.e. can it be produced in reasonable and useful time)? 5. Does the indicator present data at the appropriate temporal coverage and sufficiently detailed time trends? 11. Is the indicator well documented and of known quality? (i.e. Is the indicator used by other international organizations)? 6. Is the indicator presented at the appropriate geographical resolution (EEA country groupings) or can be disaggregated to the national level? 12. Does an institutional agreement exist between EEA and indicator producer to produce forward- looking indicators?

30. Evaluation of indicators: results

31. Comparison AGRI-F01/ AGRI-F02

32. Forward-looking indicators: SWOT analysis Strengths Scrutiny of underlying models Can help to communicate clearly High number of indicators with policy relevance Regulator updates possible via IMS Weaknesses Difficulty communicating assumptions and uncertainties Capture of non-numerical information Not available for all themes or spatial scales Problems with compatibility Only as strong as models used Opportunities Development of new or improved indicators Linkage to policy targets Greater use in policy development and decision-making Threats Indicator availability could drive policy decisions Lack of institutional arrangements for regular updates

33. Update/ expand? Provide guidelines for selection? Improve management? Establish of cooperation with countries and institutions for updata and management and use of the indicators? Forward-looking indicators: Future developments?

34. Forward-looking indicators: Further information EEA website – environmental scenarios/indicators http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/sce narios/indicators Indicator Management Service (IMS)http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and- maps/indicators Catalogue of forward-looking indicators from selected sources http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/ technical_report_2008_8 Overview of available outlook indicators for South Eastern Europe (SEE) and Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asian countries (EECCA) http://root.ew.eea.europa.eu/scenarios /fol048557/detailed_outlooks_for_EW. doc

35. Models Are often mathematical representations or computer simulations that attempt to describe the characteristics or relationships of physical events or socio-economic developments [Source: EEA Technical Report no. 11/2008] Note: models also provide input to scenarios, drivers and trend analyses etc. – as well as developing indicators Models: Definition

36. Can simulate environmental change, e.g. at global, European and other scales Provide the data to develop and support forward-looking indicators Can be developed and used as education and awareness-raising tools Participatory models can be use in policy making for negotiation processes Models: Use

37. Provides an information source about modelling tools that can be used to underpin current and future state of the environment assessments in Europe Establishes an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results Plays a role in fostering exchanges between research communities to improve existing or develop new modelling tools that can support forward-looking environmental assessments Models: FLIS online inventory

38. Thematic focusIMS category Agriculture Air qualityAir pollution Biodiversity ClimateClimate change Energy Land useTerrestrial ForestTerrestrial Transport Waste and material flowsWaste Water Demography(Socio-economic) Economy(Socio-economic) Tourism(Socio-economic) Integrated(Socio-economic) Thematic focus of models in FLIS and corresponding IMS categories

39. Example – Energy Models: What is available? Models related to energy – 9 models Models providing projections on energy development in future WEM – IEA's World Energy Model Prometheus Models related to energy sector impacts on the environment ECO2-Regio / ECO2-Privat RAINS-Europe (GAINS) Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) EcoSense Other models V GAS (Virtu@alis) International Futures

40. Models: SWOT analysis Strengths Provide a quantitative base for forward- looking assessments Can be combined with participative approaches Multiple models can be used Weaknesses Can become rapidly outdated Only as strong as the underlying methods and assumptions Significant gaps in thematic areas Consistency, comparability difficult when using multiple models Opportunities Awareness of models can be higher Opportunities to facilitate their use Exchanges between research groups can improve models Model suites Promote acceptance of pan-European models Threats Systematic evaluation of models is lacking Are imperfect representations but can appear authoritative

41. Models: Example inventory content Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model Short summary of model The RAINS model provides a tool for analysis of reduction strategies for air pollutants. The model combines information on economic and energy development, emission control potentials and costs, atmospheric dispersion characteristics and environmental sensitivities towards air pollution. The model addresses threats to human health posed by fine particulates and ground-level ozone as well as risk of ecosystems damage from air pollutants. Model dimensions Thematic coverage Air Energy Transport Agriculture Input (key drivers) Economic development Sectoral activity (for agriculture, transport, energy, fuels etc.) Outputs (key indicators) Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), ammonia (NH3), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), particulate matter (PM) Air pollution effect of energy consumption, transport and agriculture Health impact and acidification Geographical coverage Coverage: almost all European countries, incl. the European part of Russia National versions available for Italy and the Netherlands (also RAINS versions for other regions, e.g. Asia, available) Resolution: country-level (can be linked with finer resolution dispersion models) Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model

42. Models: Further information EEA Online Inventory of Modelshttp://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/fol0 79729/online-model-inventory Modelling tools for the 2010 State of the Environment and Outlook Report – model inventory and participative model inventory Various Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/ technical_report_2008_11/

43. Scenarios

44. Aims The aim of this component is to provide an overview of available scenarios relevant for European environmental integrated assessments in transparent way, to analyse gaps, enhance awareness about scenarios, possible future developments and uncertainties and its use in policy making. In parallel, the aim is to evaluate to degree possible available related methods and tools and provide some guidelines for the use for the future of environmental matters, supporting the use of existing scenario studies for different purposes and in different assessment context.

45. Current activities Current EEA/FLIS work: review of available scenario studies in the Wider European region in 2006 and updated it in 2007 and again in 2008 –Fact sheets and SWOT analyses were provided to enhance transparency and comparability. –Studies were characterised by a set of icons which illustrates at first glance the main characteristics of the scenario study. In the catalogue is presented the initial work done. Icons will be further developed for web presentation when they will find their real purpose. Main outputs: Review of scenario studies: 882 reviewed scenario studies, organised by geographical coverage, thematic focus, time horizon, and with web links to the source information Catalogue of scenario studies (forthcoming) 51 fact sheets filled in SWOT analyses of 12 scenario studies Template Fact sheet for common description of scenarios and bases for evaluation Set of icons

46. Scenarios can be defined as plausible descriptions of how the future may unfold based on 'if-then' propositions (EEA, 2005) Scenarios: Definition

47. A representation of the initial situation, or baseline A description of drivers for change and of uncertainties A description of changes, typically in time-steps A description of the end-state – and image of the future situation over a specified time-frame A description of alternative pathways to the future [Source: Alcamo (2008), Environmental Futures] Scenarios: Key elements

48. Academic research In businesses to explore potential opportunities, threats and issues for the future To provide the platform for policy discussions, to provide a framework to assess future policies and options, to support policy decisions To raise stakeholder awareness and understanding of future perspectives Scenarios: Use

49. Scenarios: SWOT analysis Strengths Explore ways to achieve policy goals Help think beyond policy cycles Represent differing views Consider broad range of issues and uncertainties Easily understood by non-experts Weaknesses May not be taken seriously May be misinterpreted Sufficient resources, capacity required Opportunities Involving right officials can improve policy effectiveness / engage and educate Government bodies can be organised to better use scenarios Integrate into policy assessments Deal with complexity and uncertainty Threats Lack of institutional capacity Cost – resources and time Lack of information systems support Poor fit with policy process Lack of high-level support Lack of methodologies

50. Scenarios: Further information EEA website - scenarioshttp://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/ scenarios/ Environmental Scenarios Information Portal - EnviroWindows Review of available scenarios studies relevant for environment assessment http://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/ List of scenarios studies relevant for Europe Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/looking- back-on-looking-forward-a-review-of- evaluative-scenario-literature The Pan-European environment: glimpses into an uncertain future http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_rep ort_2007_4 Western Balkans reporthttp://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/publication s/western-balkans/ Catalogue of scenarios (publication and in FLIS online) Under development

51. Scenarios: Example – EEA Prelude Five scenarios: Great escape Evolved society Clustered networks Lettuce surprise U Big crisis

52. Scenarios: Example – Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Four scenarios looking at global economic and political developments and their biodiversity implications

53. Scenarios: Example – GEO4 These graphs compare the outcomes of the four GEO4 scenarios in terms of energy use and carbon emissions

54. Methods and tools

55. While other components of FLIS provide structured information about the future itself, this component is dedicated to practical methods and tools of studying the future Methods and tools: Definition

56. Methods and tools: How it fits in FLIS Information about the future itself Practice of studying the future

57. Methods and tools: EEA approach EEA approach literature review scenario development horizon scanning exploration drivers analysis megatrends analysis modelling Foresight methods diamond R. Popper, 2008

58. Methods and tools: SWOT analysis Strengths Unique resource – bring together large amount of existing information and research High level of support Value-added applications in decision making, strategic planning and policy Presentation of methods & tools in wider context Weaknesses Inclusion could be interpreted as endorsement of quality Not possible to cover all themes and issues Opportunities Overview of trends and patterns in forward- looking approaches Potential to create building blocks for developing forward-looking approaches Threats Very dynamic field – hard to keep up-to-date Relies on active engagement Guidelines are needed, but costly to develop

59. Methods and tools: Further information EEA EnviroWindows - methodshttp://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/fol9 39663 GEMET - GEneral Multilingual Environmental Thesaurus http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/ EEA glossaryhttp://glossary.eea.europa.eu/

60. Networking, capacity building and governance

61. Networking, capacity, governance: EIONET EIONET partnership: EEA European Topic Centres (ETCs) National Focal Points (NFPs) National Reference Centres (NRCs) NRC-FLIS Structure demonstrating how NFPs, NRCs and ETCs interact with EEA

62. Networking, capacity, governance: Networking and building capacity 1.Scenario-building workshops in countries –Slovenia, Turkey, Austria –Network of heads of EU EPAs 2.Cooperation with other institutions: –UNEP/GEO-4 (update of global, developing regional component) –ASEF (3 times, pre-conference mind opener) –ENVSEC (Eastern Europe, Central Asia forthcoming) –OSCE ( 6 scenario-buidling workshops forthcoming: EE, CA, WB, Med, Arctic, global) For awerness raising, capacity building, enhancing stakholders participation, regional recomendations, mind opener Downscaling existing global scenarios to country level Windtunelling existing strategies through scenarios Building new scenarios

63. Awareness raising, enhancing stakeholder participation and capacity building: –Countries workshops, regional workshops in cooperation with ENVSEC, EPA network Mind opener – before or during conferences –3 ASEF conferences (scenario building exercises), Bridging the Gap conference 2009 (future cafes) Developing regional recommendations for countries policy makers (ENVSEC, OSCE) Networking, capacity, governance: Aims of scenarios exercises with partners

64. Governance means rules, processes and behaviour that affect the way in which powers are exercised at European level, particularly as regards openness, participation, accountability, effectiveness and coherence (EC White paper on governance) Networking, capacity, governance: Governance

65. BLOSSOM project – building understanding of institutional arrangements for and governance of forward-looking information in environmental policy Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analyses – Organisation and Methods Networking, capacity, governance: Governance – BLOSSOM

66. 1st phase: literature review and workshops: potential of sceanrio planning to inform policy making is often under- exploited 2nd phase: role, relevance, practical experience with institutional arrangements in ocuntries (28 interviews, FI, F, NL, PL, SI, S, SE, UK), in 2010 4 countries added: AU, DE, H, P Country Case studies: governance and administrative context,processes, major studies Crosscutting report: commonalities, lessons learnt (institutions, mechanisms, processes) Networking, capacity, governance: Governance

68. BLOSSOM SWOT-tail diagram: Netherlands

69. FLIS will draw on BLOSSOM project: –to inform and support existing and new activities to improve institutional set-up and governance –to encourage information and good-practice exchange Networking, capacity, governance: Governance

70. Networking, capacity, governance: Further information EIONET websitehttp://eionet.europa.eu/ EIONET NRC-FLIShttp://forum.eionet.europa.eu/nrc-flis/ BLOSSOM reportForthcoming 2011 EnviroWindows links to Institutions, Organisations and Networks http://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/link s/other/organisations

71. Use of forward looking information

72. Forward-looking information is increasingly accepted and used: 1.In broad policy oriented forward-looking assessments 2.To support strategic planning and decision making 3.In education, information, science and research Use of forward-looking information

73. Pan European Environment: Glimpses into an uncertain future (2007) Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns (2010) Contributions to EEA major reports: Pan European report 2007 (Belgrade), SOER 2010: –Part A: explorative LT (2050) analyses of global megatrends –Part B: thematic assessments (outlook 2020) –Part C: country profiles (include Forward-looking component) Use of forward-looking info: Assessments

74. Use of forward-looking info: Assessments – example Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption pattern Framework of analyses Assessment of assessments approach

75. Two purposes of forward-looking information in relation to policy: –Agenda setting – the identification of issues for policy attention and exploration of uncertainties. –Policy development – including long-term (regulatory) impact assessment of policies. Use of forward-looking info: Planning and decision- making

76. Education – use in class-rooms and by students, as well as educating policy makers Information – raising awareness and presenting complex issues clearly Science and research – setting research agendas and priorities Use of forward-looking info: Education, information, science

77. Thank you!