1. Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP
Teresa Ribeiro
Anita Pirc-Velkavrh
(Axel Volkery)
(AnneKathrin Jaeger)
EIONET seminar:
Forward-looking information in environment assessment
19-20 May 2008

2. PRESENTATION I – Forward-Looking Assessments
II – Improving the Information System (IS)
III - Cooperation & Capacity Building

3. I - Forward-looking assessments
PAST ACTIVITIES:
SOER ( Overview)
European Environment Outlook 2005
PRELUDE (5 land-use scenarios)
Glimpses (analysing uncertainties)

4. I - Forward-looking assessments
SOER - EUROPEAN ENIRONMENT OUTLOOK 2005
Key socio-economic developments
Demography
Macro-economy
Technological and sectoral developments
Energy and transport
Agriculture
Waste and material flows
Consumption patterns
Outlooks developed for various environmental themes
GHG emissions and climate change
Air quality
Water stress
Water quality

5. I - Forward-looking assessments
Analytical Framework of the EEO 2005
Geographical coverage - EU 25
Baseline projections ( ),
Alternative projections and variants (up to 2100)
Interactions between sectoral developments and environmental issues
Distance to target analyses
Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers
Key socio-economic developments (common set of assumptions for the driving forces to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis)

6. I - Forward-looking assessments
PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe
Project objectives and outputs
To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)
To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.
Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies

7. I - Forward-looking assessments
PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe
I - Forward-looking assessments
New approaches to scenario communication:
video/audio-animated presentation tool
Broad communication brochure with DVD
Interactive mind-stretcher
Video presentation for Green week
Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development
PRELUDE 2 Action

9. PRELUDE -Land use change scenarios
I - Forward-looking assessments
PRELUDE -Land use change scenarios
Land use type A Land use type B Land use type C
Current Situation
Future
What Changes?
...
Where?
...
Environmental impacts?
...

10. ‘Story-and-Simulation‘
Scenario development
Quant. Scen.
Qual. Scen
Stakeholders
EEA
Data &
Modelling
Group(s)
European Land Use Change Scenarios
The main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors.
The environmental impacts of land use change are complex, and may affect air quality, water quality and quantity, landscape structure and biodiversity …
Experts
☺ Floods
☺ Biodiv. …
‘Story-and-Simulation‘

11. A Prelude to Europe’s Future
5 contrasting yet plausible environ-mental scenarios of future changes in land use and European landscape
Europe of Contrast – Great Escape
Europe of Harmony – Evolved Society
Europe of Structure – Clustered Networks
Europe of Innovation – Lettuce Surprise U
Europe of Cohesion – Big Crisis

12. DUET change

13. Belgrade report findings
I - Forward-looking assessments
What are the prospects for the environment in the pan-European region?
complex and dynamic environment
Belgrade report findings
what if...
PROJECTIONS
SCENARIOS
drivers of future change
We live in a complex environment
To be able to analyes future perspectives drivers of the change
o future uncertainties and questions “what if…”
uncertainties

14. Political stability Pan-European environmental outlooks*:
Air quality
Climate change
Biodiversity loss
Waste and material use
*based on the key findings of the Belgrade report
Environmental changes are commonly driven by wider socio-economic trends, such as :
Political stability
Globalisation and trade
Macro-economic trends
Demographic patterns
Consumptions patterns
Land and natural
resources use
Global environmental
governance
Future related uncertainties

15. Example from the report: Outlook – Biodiversity loss
Impact of climate change on number of plant species, 2100
“The global target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without considerable additional effort.”

16. Example from the report: Driver: Demographic patterns
Uncertainties (e.g. migration)
Population growth
WCE
EECCA
SEE
Population projections, 2000 to 2030 (Source: UN Population Division, 2006)
Scenarios e.g:
Migration from Turkey to EU, Erzan et al., 2007

17. Example from the report: Driver: Consumption patterns
Waste growth
Energy
Total waste generation is expected to continue to grow
Energy consumption is
expected to increase.
Volumes of transport are expected to grow in unsustainable manner
Source: IEA
Transport: passenger and freight
Key future concerns
To understand better impacts on environment resulting from consumption and to more efficiently influence driving forces
Per capita household spending is increasing with food in decline and transport, health, housing, communication and recreation on raise.
Energy consumption is expected to increase, especially in RF.
Volumes of transport are expected to grow in unsustainable manner (air passenger transport and road freight transport are dominant)
Outlooks:
Renewable energy by country (2005)
per capita total energy demand - Outlook;
projected change in energy-related CO2 emission for two different scenarios, reference versus alternative, 2004 – 2030
Outlook on passenger demand (left) and freight demand (right, in billion Tonne-km per /year)
Add key words from assessment
Key oprotunities for environment in the future are within SCP
BG report messages
Household expenditure is between three
(EU‑15) and five (SEE) times higher than
public expenditure. Household consumption
per capita is on the increase in all European
countries, with levels about four times higher
in EU‑15 than in EECCA countries.
• Patterns of consumption are changing rapidly
across the region with the food component
decreasing, and the shares for transport,
communication, housing, recreation and health
on the rise. In EECCA, many rural households
still have little or no surplus for non-essential
goods. However, a small but growing urban
middle class is increasingly adopting the
consumption patterns of WCE.
• Food and beverages, private transport
and housing (including construction and
energy consumption) are those consumption
categories that are causing the highest
life‑cycle environmental impacts. In WCE,
tourism and air travel are emerging as future
key impact areas.
• Whilst some decoupling of economic growth
from domestic resource and energy use have
been noted in both EU and EECCA, it is not
clear to what extent changes in consumption
patterns have contributed to this since most
high‑impact consumption categories are
actually increasing.
• Changing consumption patterns cause
increased impacts as spending shifts to
more impact‑intensive categories (transport
and household energy use). Within these
categories, growth in consumption has
more than offset benefits from improved
technological efficiency.
Source: IEA/WBSCD

18. Driver: Consumption patterns
Uncertainties
Development of the future EU policy in energy, transport
Future development of policies in EECCA region
Prospect of technology breakthroughs
Global politics and unexpected events
Changes of consumption patterns
IEA energy scenarios
WBCSD transport scenarios
National energy scenarios in EECCA and SEE region
The future European food chain: Sweden
Scenarios, e.g.:

19. II - IS with forward-looking components
PAST ACTIVITIES
Review of available scenario studies in pan-European region
Review of relevant available models at EU level
Review of available outlook indicators from different sources
Developing outlook indicators for EU/EEA
Gathering, analysing and assessing available outlooks indicators ( Belgrade report, IMS(F), catalogue).

20. AN OVERVIEW OF SCENARIO STUDIES (2007)
II - IS with forward-looking components
AN OVERVIEW OF SCENARIO STUDIES (2007)
Scope of the overview
Pan-European relevance
More than 100 studies reviewed
internet, contacts with experts,
English and Russian studies, all SEE languages
Main issues covered were economy, energy, political scenarios
Russia, Bulgaria, Turkey, SEE regional level
Review is available on Envirowindows scenario website
Information gaps in scenario studies
Environmental impacts: water quality, biodiversity, impacts of climate change, waste
Transport, fisheries, technology, demography, land and natural resources use, env. integration with socio-economic issues
Problems in methodological soundness, reliability, lack of direct relevance to policy issues

21. REVIEW OF MODELLING TOOLS
II - IS with forward-looking components
REVIEW OF MODELLING TOOLS
20 modelling tools are described in standardised model
descriptions out of a list of 130 models
based on public available information - review by
experts
Overview of 35 participative models

23. Towards an online model inventory
Transfer of templates into an online model inventory:
One-off review activities do not capture dynamic developments
There is a need for pooling knowledge and expertise
Broaden perspectives of modellers and model users – feedback function
A web-based inventory developed collaboratively by the EEA and the respective modellers
Hosted by EEA but updated by modellers

24. II - IS with forward-looking components
Overview of available outlook indicators
-relevant to pan-European region
IMS and CIRCA
Key results
Review ~ 150 indicators
from 14 institutions
14 models
Themes and issues not well covered:
terrestrial, fisheries, water quality, land and natural resources use,
environmental management, integration with socio-economic issues
59 are in the IMS (F)
30 outlook indicators used in the Glimpses report
10 outlook indicators used in Belgrade report
12 are related to the EEA CSI
All included in Catalogue (2008)

25. Comparison of relations outlooks to EEA CSI
CLIMATE CHANGE
GHG emissions
Projections of GHG emissions from National Communications under UNFCCC
Projections of GHG emissions from UNECE
GHG emissions - outlook from IEA model
GHG emissions - outlook from RAINS model
GHG emissions - outlook from IEA/ETP model
GHG emissions - outlook from IMAGE model
Global and European temperature
Global and European temperature – outlook from National communications under UNFCCC
Global and European temperature– outlook from IMAGE model
TERRESTRIAL
Land cover distribution
Land cover distribution and change -outlook from GLOBIO/IMAGE model
WASTE
Municipal waste generation
Municipal waste generation - outlook from National communications under UNFCCC
Municipal waste generation - outlook from OECD model
Municipal waste management- N/A
Municipal waste management - outlook from OECD model

26. Catalogue of outlook indicators
59 outlooks: 20 available in May 2008, the rest by summer

27. Assessment of outlooks for three Pan-European subregions:
Indicator
Time
WCE Region
EECCA
Region
SEE Region
Source
Population
2000 to 2030
WCE
+1%
-6.1%
SEE
+16%
World population prospects. UN Population Division, 2007.
GDP
2005 to 2030
EU-15
EU-10
+64%
+141%
+182%
SEE w/o Turkey
OECD Outlook, OECD (forthcoming).
Working age population per one person over 65
2000 to 2020
-53%
-51%
- 61%
Emissions of acidifying pollutants (SO2)
EU 25
-63% to -85%
-1.5%
-33%
EMEP Inventory Review. EMEP, 2005.
Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NOx)
-46% to -69%
+48%
-16%
Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NH3)
-5% to -42%
+36%
+5%

28. Assessment of availability of data in Western Balkans

29. Belgrade report Annex 3

30. II - IS with forward-looking components
The way forward:
2008: Comparative analyses of 59 outlook indicators
2009: consultation with countries
Regular update of few of them?
Model based quantitative information useful to assess short term and/or more certain trends

31. III - Cooperation and capacity building
PAST ACTIVITIES:
Countries
Regions (SEE, EECCA…)
UNEP – GEO 3/GEO 4
MA – Scenarios report
Research Networks and publications

32. III - Cooperation with countries
- Use of existing scenarios (UNEP GEO) for downscaling to the country level
Workshop gathered different stakeholders in the country and liaised discussion between them
Slovenia 2005:
Analysis of existing strategic goals and measures in transport and waste sector for 4 different scenarios
Identification of gaps in existing strategies and robust goals and measures for all scenarios
Turkey 2006/7:
Discussing the energy system in the 4 scenarios
Identifyication of adequate policy measures for developing a robust energy strategy in each scenario

33. PRELUDE 2action - Austria
III - Cooperation with countries
PRELUDE 2action - Austria
Initiated by the Austrian Environment Ministry
1 Day - presentation of 4 PRELUDE scenarios in a circuit
Around 40 participants from different national and regional authorities
Lively, open discussion
What is the relevance (for EU, for Austria?)
What is the plausibility (for EU, for Austria?)
What is the desirability (for EU, for Austria?)
Positive feedback – similar exercise run by the Oesterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz in May 2008

34. III - Cooperation with countries
NEIGHBOURHOOD COUNTRIES (2009):
Cooperation with UNEP GRID Arendal within Environment and security project
Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus
scenario development activity to strengthen countries capacities and contribute to identification of sustainable options of energy security strategies in Eastern Europe
This activity would further link to EEA contribution to neighbourhood policy and EEA pan-European Astana report 2010
ENVSEC(UNDP, UNEP, OSCE, NATO, UNECE and REC)

35. DUET Change

36. Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities:
III - Cooperation -
Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities:
Contribution to UNEP GEO-4 report
Developing the European component of global scenarios-narrative (on the bases of GEO-3 scenarios)
Bringing together European stakeholder team to support this task
Contributing to the quantitative analyses to support narratives
Contributing to the chapter 9 of the UNEP GEO-4 report

37. Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities:
III - Cooperation -
Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities:
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment- MA
Scenarios team since beginning
Development of scenarios
Co-authored several chapters of the Scenario Assessment report.
MA – Manual ( forthcoming Dec. 2008)
Co-authoring chapter on Scenarios

38. Recent contributions to other foresight research projects / processes
IWRM-NET WP 3: ”Long-term research needs in integrated water resource management” (Advisory group)
STOA / Danish Board of Technology: ”The Future of Long-Distance Transport in Europe” (Advisory group) – 2007/2008
DG RTD ”Long-term research needs in agriculture” – 2007
MATISSE, FORESCENE, SENSOR, Etc.

39. Thank you!

40. Methodological developments and scenarios
Conference presentations
Linking with main Knowledge centres
(Oxford, MA, …….)
Scientific publications
(MA, MA manual, …. )
other research projects

41. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe
Project objectives and outputs
To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)
To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.
Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies
New approaches to scenario communication:
video/audio-animated presentation tool
Stylish brochure
Interactive mind-stretcher
Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development

42. BLOSSOM
Background
Long-term environmental problems require a long-term (environmental) policy perspective
A couple of challenges:
The question is not only how to better assess key drivers, impacts and uncertainties of long-term future developments...
... but also how to take decisions that are robust, or sound, against a variety of these alternative future developments?
 Quite often the ones who are producing the information are not the ones who take the decisions

43. BLOSSOM cont. Main questions
What is the actual impact of environmental scenarios and other forward-looking studies and tools on policy-making?
Anecdotal evidence that many decisions that could benefit from scenarios/other tools are not using them at all or not to the full potential advertised in the literature
Is this due to:
Lack of evaluation?
Lack of appropiate methods?
Lack of appropiate institutions?

44. BLOSSOM cont. Main rationale
Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analysis – Organisation and Methods
A systemetic effort to:
Take stock
Scrutinize institutional arragements
Analyse methods and develop case studies
Foster information exchange and learning

45. BLOSSOM cont. BLOSSOM 1.0 Started January 2008 Organisations review
Literature review
Expert workshop

46. BLOSSOM cont. First results
Literature review: 52 journal or book chapters match our criteria of ”evaluative scenario literature”, so far...
Some of the main findings:
Little to less work on factors that influence the successful use of scenarios
Most empirical cases come from the world of business
Little to less work on failure of scenario exercises
Growing literature evaluating environmental assessments does not make a significant mentioning of scenarios
Institutions – the missing debate?
Methods – how to better aling long-term scenario&policy analysis? Concepts of robust decision-making etc.