1. October 18-20, 2010
LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA
FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Overview and Forecast Review and Approval Process
Paul Devoti
Airport Planner
Federal Aviation Administration

2. TAF Overview FAA Terminal Area Forecast TAF Uses
Online database of airport specific forecasts
Official FAA forecast by individual airport
Published annually in late December by APO-100 (Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division)
Unconstrained
TAF Uses
Air Traffic Controller Staffing Levels and Budgeting
Airport and Capacity Planning
NAS Development (Capital Investment Analysis, etc..)
NextGen modeling and planning

3. TAF Development Preparation of TAF is a year-long process
APO-100 uses several different methodologies to prepare the airport forecasts in the Terminal Area Forecast. The airports are grouped into the following categories:
OEP (35 OEP airports)
Second Tier (roughly the remaining top 100 airports in terms of enplanements)
Other FAA and Contract Towers
Non FAA facilities

4. TAF Development – Forecast Inputs
Historic Activity
Enplanements, Operations, Based Aircraft
Socioeconomic Data
Income, Population, Employment
Cost of Flying
Yield, Fare
Operational Factors
Seats per aircraft, Load Factors, Operations/Based Aircraft

5. Aviation Forecasts
Airport sponsors generate aviation activity forecasts for use in defining scope and timing of airport development
FAA is concerned with sponsor forecasts when used in FAA decision making, including:
Key environmental issues (determination of Purpose and Need, noise, air quality, and land use analyses in an EA or EIS)
Initial financial decisions including issuance of an LOI (Letter of Intent) and calculation of a BCA (Benefit Cost Analysis)
Noise compatibility planning (Part 150)
Approval of development on an airport layout plan (ALP)

6. FAA Review of Sponsor Forecasts
Forecast approval always rests with FAA Airport District Office (ADO) / Regional Office. FAA Headquarters may, however, review and provide recommendations.
Items that FAA looks for during review…
Forecast based on latest available data
Realistic assumptions
Appropriate methodologies
Forecasts provide justification for planning and development recommendations
Forecasts are consistent the FAA Terminal Area Forecast

7. Comparison with TAF
For all classes of airports, forecasts for total enplanements, based aircraft, and total operations are considered consistent with the TAF when the meet the following criterion:
Forecasts differ by less than 10 percent in the five-year forecast period
Forecasts differ by less than 15 percent in the ten-year forecast period
If the forecast is not consistent with the TAF, differences must be resolved if the forecast is to be used in FAA decision making
Latest Guidance: “Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts, June 2008”

8. FAA HQ Review Forecasts that require FAA Headquarters review are:
Those inconsistent with the TAF, OR
Forecasts for projects that are expected to require an EIS and/or BCA, even if the forecasts are consistent with the TAF.
Exception- FAA Headquarters review is not required for forecasts at non-towered general aviation and reliever airports where:
Five and ten-year forecasts do not exceed 200 based aircraft or 200,000 total annual operations, AND
The related development is not expected to require an EIS and/or BCA

9. FAA HQ Review HQ Review Common Issues:
May take up to 45 days and require coordination with APO-100, if necessary.
Common Issues:
Fiscal Year vs. Calendar Year
Non revenue passengers and military charter passengers excluded from TAF
New service unknown to APO-100
Letters of support/other documentation
Goal: thorough sponsor forecast consistent with TAF (10%/15%)

10. Resources and Guidance
FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts (FAA Airports Guidance)
FAA Forecast Review Checklist (for HQ review)
Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport (APO Guidance)
FAA Advisory Circular 150/5370-6B, Airport Master Plans (Ch. 7)
ACRP Synthesis Report 2 – Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting
FAA Aerospace Forecasts