1. Joshua Fu, Yun-Fat Lam* and Yang Gao University of Tennessee Daniel Jacob, Loretta Mickley and Shiliang Wu Harvard University Oct 20, 2009 The effects of Climate Change to the Future Air Quality in United States

2. University of Tennessee Joshua Fu, Yun-Fat Lam, University of Tennessee Harvard University Daniel Jacob (PI), Loretta Mickley, Harvard University California Institute of Technology John Seinfeld, California Institute of Technology Argonne National Lab David Streets, Argonne National Lab GISS/NASA David Rind, GISS/NASA GLOBAL CHANGE AND AIR POLLUTION (GCAP)

3. SOURCE: GCAP group GCAP: How will global change affect U.S. air quality UT

4. Effect of Global Warming in GISS General Circulation Model Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM: 9 layers, 4 o x5 o horizontal grid, CO 2 + other greenhouse gases increased yearly from 2000 to 2050. Carbon Monoxide: CO source: present-day anthropogenic emissions sink: CO + present-day OH fields Black Carbon: BC source: present-day anthropogenic emissions sink: rainout 1950 spin-up (ocean adjusts) 2000 increasing A1 greenhouse gas 2050 Timeline spin up 1995- 2002 2045-2052 { +2 o C Temp change July global mean temperature Mickley et al., 2004 SOURCE: GCAP group

5. Effect of Climate Change on Regional Stagnation Pollution episodes double in duration in 2050 climate due to decreasing frequency of cyclones ventilating the eastern U.S; this decrease is an expected consequence of greenhouse warming. GISS GCM 2’ simulations for 2050 vs. present-day climate using pollution tracers with constant emissions Mickley et al. [GRL 2004] Mid-latitudes cyclones tracking across southern Canada are the main drivers of northern U.S. ventilation 2045-2052 1995- 2002 summer Northeast U.S. CO tracer SOURCE: GCAP group

6. Climatological Fact Annual number of surface cyclones and anticylones over North America Cyclone frequency at 30 o -60 o N cyclones anticyclones 1000 100 500 1950 1980 Agee [1991] McCabe et al. [2001] SOURCE: GCAP group DECREASE IN FREQUENCY OF MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES OVER PAST 50 YEARS

7. Global model vs. Regional Model Atmospheric component Sea Ice component Ocean component Land surface model component Climate Air Quality, Heat waves, Flooding, Drought, Human Health Missing aerosol feed back Global Model Regional Model Two-ways coupled climate and chemistry One-way coupled climate and chemistry Direct affect solar radiation

8. Significant of Regional Model Resolution : down to 1 x 1 km –Taking advantages of detail geographical information in meteorology modeling, as well as highly reliable emission inventories for ozone and aerosol modeling All the equations in regional model are designed to use in fine resolution conditions –Scalability issue in global model Regional/urban climate and air quality conditions can be simulated to provide information for local and regional planning –It has better implication in model outputs

9. Development of downscaling approach – Analysis of 2000-2050 trends in air pollution meteorology – Development of GISS/GEOS- Chem interface – Development of GISS/MM5 interface – Development of future emission inventories for carbonaceous aerosols – Application of GISS/GEOS- Chem to 2000-2050 trends in ozone and PM (IPCC A1B scenario) – Statistical projection of 2000- 2050 ozone trends

10. Objective Investigate the future air quality in United States for year 2050 using regional air quality model, CMAQ & MM5 Investigate the future air quality in United States for year 2050 using regional air quality model, CMAQ & MM5 Study the effect of global warming in regional scale for both climate and air quality Study the effect of global warming in regional scale for both climate and air quality Examine the effect of change of anthropogenic emissions Examine the effect of change of anthropogenic emissions Determine the emission reduction offsets required to maintain NAAQS Determine the emission reduction offsets required to maintain NAAQS

11. Models: Models:  Global Models  GISS-GCM III (GISS/NASA)  GEOS-Chem IV (HARVARD UNIVERSITY) Regional Models Regional Models MM5 and WRF (NCAR) MM5 and WRF (NCAR) CMAQ 4.6 (EPA and others) CMAQ 4.6 (EPA and others) Interface Program Development and Regional Modeling (UT) Interface Program Development and Regional Modeling (UT) GISS2MM5 => MM5 (UT) GISS2MM5 => MM5 (UT) GEOS-Chem => CMAQ (UT) GEOS-Chem => CMAQ (UT) Model Configurations

12. GISS general circulation model III  Global climate model  Provide initial guess values for MM5 (Both current and future climate conditions - e.g. 2000 and 2050)  4° x 5° horizontal resolution  30 vertical sigma/pressure layers Global Model Configurations Climate Model GEOS-Chem IV  Global chemistry model  Provide initial and boundary conditions for CMAQ  2° x 2.5° horizontal resolution  28 vertical sigma/pressure layers  Take into account of volcanic events, wild fire, lightning and dust storm across the globe Chemistry Model

13. MM5  Regional climate model  Terrain followed sigma coordination  Resolution: 108km and nest down to 36km (can be down to 1 km)  43 vertical sigma/pressure layers  Preprocessor: TERRAIN, REGRID, LITTLE_R, INTERPF and NESTDOWN Regional Model Configurations Climate Model CMAQ 4.6  14 layers (from the MM5 sigma levels)  36 km horizontal resolution (in this study)  ICON and BCON from GEOS- Chem from 3 hrs to one hour average  GISS/MM5 meteorological Inputs  Input emission is compatible with 2001 EPA National Emission Inventory Chemistry Model

14. Example Results of MM5 Outputs from GISS GISS surface wind and temperature Inputs Year 2000 Year 2050 Source:L. Mickley (Harvard) 108 km - CONUS 36 km - CONUS GISS MM5

15. GISS Vs. MM5

16. GISS Vs. MM5 (JJAS) NE SE MidN Average Temperature (K) MAX & AVG Temperature

17. GISS Vs. MM5 (JJAS) Temperature RMSE is below 0.4 K. And the mean bias is close to 0.1 K << 0.5 (benchmark) Wind speed RMSE is less than 0.2 m/s << 2 m/s (benchmark). For the mean bias, the value is 0.1 m/s Wind direction RMSE is less than 20° and mean bias is less than 1 ° << 10 °

18. CMAQ Simulations Scenarios 2000 climate with 2000 emission 2050 climate with 2000 emission 2000 climate with 2050 emission 2050 climate with 2050 emission Climate/Emission Contributions  Study period: June 1 to September 1 (Ozone season) IPCC NOx Emission Scenario X 2000 NO 2 2050 NO 2 Emission Projection

19. Maximum Ozone Concentration 2000climate-2000emi2050climate-2000emi 2000climate-2050emi2050climate-2050emi warmer Fu et al. 2008 Emission has more effect than climate change on pollution events

20. CMAQ Simulations – Output (JJAS) MAXIMUM OZONE AVERAGE OZONE

21. Source: Harvard University

22. GEOS-Chem Vs. CMAQ (JJAS)

24. GEOS-Chem Vs. CMAQ (JJAS) – MidN Large difference in temperature Small difference in wind speed The CMAQ’s trend is similar as GEOS-Chem’s trend (Temperature dominated case)

25. GEOS-Chem Vs. CMAQ (JJAS) - NE Small difference in temperature Small difference in wind speed The CMAQ’s trend is not similar as GEOS-Chem’s trend (Emission domination case)

26. GEOS-Chem Vs. CMAQ (JJAS) – SE Large difference in temperature Large difference in wind speed The CMAQ’s trend is not similar as GEOS-Chem’s trend (Cloud dominated case) ?? Why different from NE ??

27. Global downscaling of GISS and GEOS-Chem have successfully performed with high confidence. The ozone trend (2050 – 2000) of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ are found to be quite difference, where GEOS-Chem is much more temperature driven (may due to the coarse resolution of meteorological data) In GEOS-Chem, climate change is a stronger factor than emission change for MidN and NE, but not showing in SE In CMAQ, only MidN have shown stronge climate change effect. Overall, the maximum zonal ozone concentration in 2050 is much higher than 2000. However, the probability of getting higher ozone may not higher. The convection and cloud cover have played important role on this issue. Remarks

28. THANK YOU!

29. Average Aerosol (PM 2.5 ) Concentration BLACK CARBON SULFATE AEROSOL Climate Effect Emission Effect Emission has more effect than climate change on pollution events ? Climate change doesn’t effect South-East ? USUS