Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byChristopher McFarland Modified over 11 years ago
1
The EU PESETA project: effects of climate change in Europe Juan Carlos Ciscar, EC, DG JRC, IPTS European Week of Regions and Cities 11 October 2007, Brussels
2
Outline Outline 1.About PESETA oBackground, Purposes oApproach, Sectors and partners oThe Climate Scenarios oMethodologies oAdaptation 2.Early results (EC Green Paper on Adaptation to Climate Change)
3
Background l l European Council (March 2004) request: analysing costs and benefits of EU post-2012 climate policy l l Winning the battle against climate change EC Communication (2005) l l "Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond" EC Communication (2007) l l Green Paper on Adaptation to climate change impacts (2007)
4
Main Purposes l l Quantitative assessment of the monetary estimates of impacts of climate change in Europe l l Potentially useful for policymakers l l Based on bottom-up physical assessments l l Applying existing methods/studies
5
Sectors and Partners Six sectors m Agriculture: U. Politécnica de Madrid, A. Iglesias m Human health: AEA Technology, L. Horrocks/P. Watkiss m River basin flooding: JRC/IES, A. de Roo/L. Feyen m Energy demand: FEDEA, J. M. Labeaga m Coastal systems: FEEM/Southampton U., R. Nicholls m Tourism: U. Maastricht-ICIS, P. Martens/B. Amelung
6
Climate Scenarios Data needs: 50 km resolution; daily and monthly Selection of scenarios l l 2011-2040 period: A2 IPCC SRES scenario data from the Rossby Center l l 2071-2100 period: data from PRUDENCE m A2, B2 IPCC SRES scenarios m 2 regional climate models, RCMs (HIRHAM, RCA) m 2 global circulation models, GCMs (HadCM3, ECHAM4)
7
Methodologies for Physical Impacts Assessment Detailed process modelling l l Agriculture, DSSAT crop model l l River basin flooding, LISFLOOD hydrological model l l Coastal systems, DIVA model Reduced-form exposure-response functions l l Energy l l Tourism l l Human Health
8
Adaptation measures Agriculture: farm-level adaptation l No constraint on water irrigation l No constraints on use of fertilizers Coastal zones: hard adaptation measures l Building dikes l Beach nourishment Rest of sectors
9
Temp, Precipit. A2 Scenario, 2071-2100
10
Effects in agriculture A2 scenario 2071-2100
11
Effects in heat-, and cold-related mortality
12
Tourism climate index
13
River discharge A2 scenario 2071-2100
14
l Adaptation Assessments l Treatment of the cascade of uncertainty in a systematic way: probabilistic approach l Integrate further sectors (water); include other sectors l Dynamic land use scenarios Possible research needs
15
http://peseta.jrc.es/
16
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.