1. Economic Trends and The Oil and Gas Industry September 15, 2015 Carlsbad, New Mexico Jim Peach Department of Economics and International Business and Arrowhead Center New Mexico State University jpeach@nmsu.edu

2. The US economy: Not bad, but not booming Since 2009 Q3 (Beginning of recovery) – GDP increased in 22 quarters – GDP fell in 2 quarters (2011 Q1) and 2014 Q1) Average rate of growth since 2009 q3= 2.2 percent Average 1957 to 2007 = 3.4 percent 59 consecutive months of employment gains

3. “Economy not bad but not booming” Warren Buffet CNBC: September 8, 2015 Photo public domain from Wikipedia commons

4. US GDP

5. Jobs

6. Not Bad! 2015 is NADA forecast

7. Housing

8. Scary Stuff? “The fundamentals of the economy are sound.” Mike Jackson, CEO, Autonation CNBC Sept 2, 2015 Photo from autonation website

9. What will Janet (and friends) do? Public domain photos Wikipedia commons

10. What will Janet (and friends) do?

11. Some Global Issues Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/ref_maps/political/pdf/world.pdf World population = 7.1 b World GDP = $74 T

12. China Matters Source: Map CIA World Factbook; Data World Bank Population = 1. 4 billion GDP = $10.4 Trillion

13. Greece matters but Turkey is more important Source: CIA World Factbook Greece population 11.0 million GDP $240 b Turkey population 75.0 million GDP $800 b

14. New Mexico: Weak recovery with few bright spots Photo by Jim Peach Sept 2014

15. NM Rank = 49

16. Weak Recovery in New Mexico

17. Not pretty in most sectors

18. Unemployment Rate Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions, Monthly Labor Review

19. Unemployment Rate Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions, Monthly Labor Review

20. Population: first decrease in 50 years

21. New Mexico Poverty Rank = 1

22. Per Capita Income: NM and its neighbors NM Rank = 45

23. US Crude Oil EIA estimates released Friday Sept 11, 2015 June 15 9,296 June 14 8,676

24. Cushing inventories?

25. US Crude Oil EIA estimates released Friday Sept 11, 2015 June 15 9,296 April 15 9,612

26. NM Crude Oil EIA estimates released Friday Sept 11, 2015 Percent Change June 2014 to June 2015 +27.8% 2014 total = 123.6 mmb 338 bpd

27. Thank you!