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Published byEzra Baldwin Modified over 9 years ago
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Deere & Company (NYSE:DE)
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THESIS Deere is a well-positioned company in the heavy machinery industry with a number of growth opportunities. It has an impressive financial track record and appears to be undervalued relative to its growth and the industry.
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AGENDA Opportunities Risks Competitive Analysis Financial Analysis Valuation
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OPPORTUNITIES Agriculture and Turf Makes up 78.4% of revenues Saw 8% growth over last quarter and 12% over the past three quarters Continued expansion in emerging markets (specifically Brazil, Africa, and Middle East) Increased financing in Africa, agricultural automation Construction and Forestry 14.7% of revenues 11% decline over last quarter and 8% decline over the past three quarters U.S Census Bureau showed 5.4% growth in construction spending during the first seven months of 2013 YoY Financial Services 5.9% of revenues but 14% of operating profits
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RISKS Economic growth rate in emerging markets has been lower than expected The Brazilian Real has been depreciating against the USD and could hurt Deere in exchange rates Construction and Forestry could continue to drag on the business
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COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS Main competitors: Cummins, Caterpillar, CNH Global, AGCO Cummins revenue fell 4.0% last year Caterpillar is the biggest player in the mining industry. The mining industry has performed poorly recently. CNH Global – subsidiary of Fiat AGCO – promising company, however, DE has better margins and I believe DE has a better valuation
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COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 12.9% revenue growth from the 2011 to 2012 39.0% revenue growth from 2010 to 2012 On pace for 4.5% revenue growth this year 10.7% EBIT growth from 2011 to 2012 43.8% EBIT growth from 2010 to 2012 On pace for 15.8% EBIT growth this year Current Ratio: 2.22 Dividend Yield of 2.46%
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VALUATION Despite all of this growth, Deere stock price is flat over the past year EV/EBIT is 10.24, below industry average of 12.41 P/E ratio is 9.44, below industry average of 11.95
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