1. MDMP Class (Military Decision Making Process)

2. What is MDMP
It is a standardized planning / decision making model used by the Army:
Conceptually very easy to understand
Application in a very dynamic environment is very difficult
Art vs. science

3. Why is it important
Decision making process needs to be standardized because:
Organizational structure is very fluid (players change almost daily)
Provides a fundamental / common framework that facilitates “plug and play” nature of the Army
Imagine this:
Your signal platoon has been attached to a unit you’ve never worked with
Assigned unit is planning / preparing for a major deployment and operation
You have been asked to get linked up with and begin the planning process
Standardized planning process facilitates rapid integration of new players.

4. Basic Problem Solving Model
Identify the Problem: I need a car
Develop solutions: what are my options,
New / used
Truck, van, sedan, SUV, or motorcycle
Compare alternatives: cost, gas mileage, reliability, etc.
Decision: used Huffy 3 speed

5. Fundamentals of Planning
Troop Leading Procedures:
Eight step process used to plan and prepare for military operations.
MDMP:
Standardized planning / decision making model
Staff Estimates:
Formal process used to fully analyze a problem from a specific functional area viewpoint (S1, S3, S3, S4, etc).

6. Troop Leading Procedures (TLP)
Eight step process used to plan and prepare for military operations.
Receive the mission
Issue a warning order
Make a tentative plan
Initiate movement
Recon
Complete the plan
Issue orders
Supervise

7. MDMP Receive mission Mission analysis Course of Action development
COA Analysis
COA Comparison
COA Approval
Orders Production

8. Estimates What is an estimate: Who conducts estimates:
It is a formal process used to fully analyze a problem from a specific functional area viewpoint.
Who conducts estimates:
Staff officers: Staff estimate
Cdrs: Commander estimate

9. Staff Estimates vs. Cdr Estimates
Tailored problem analysis process specific to staff officer’s functional area of expertise
Intelligence Officer
Operations Officer
Logistics
Etc.
Commander’s Estimate:
A more broad / general analysis of a problem
Why two different estimates:
Provides a “somewhat” independent analysis of a problem
Serves as a checks and balance system to ensure all planners are thoroughly analyzing the problem

10. Estimates In Relation to MDMP
Receive mission
Mission analysis
Course of Action development
COA Analysis
COA Comparison
COA Approval
Orders Production
Staff Estimate
Cdr Estimate

11. TLP vs. MDMP vs. Estimates
Receive mission
Mission analysis
Course of Action dev.
COA Analysis
COA Comparison
COA Approval
Orders Production
Troop Leading Proc.
Receive the mission
Issue a warning order
Make a tentative plan
Initiate movement
Recon
Complete the plan
Issue orders
Supervise
ESTIMATES
Cdr Estimate
Staff Estimate
All three systems are integrated and mutually supportive

12. MDMP Receive mission Mission analysis Course of Action development
COA Analysis
COA Comparison
COA Approval
Orders Production
Next Class

13. Mission Analysis Why: Must accurately define the problem
What am I trying to do, what is the problem I am trying to solve?
Sometimes problem identification is very easy, sometimes is it very difficult
Endstate of Mission Analysis is a clearly defined mission statement.
Mission statement provides organizational focus.
Do I really need a car? OR
Do I really need transportation to/from class

14. Steps of Mission Analysis Process
Analyze HHQ operations order and other available documentation
Conduct IPB
Determine: specified / implied / essential tasks
Review available assets
Determine constraints
Identify critical facts and assumptions
Conduct risk assessment
Determine CCIR
Determine initial recon requirements
Plan use of available time
Develop restated mission
Conduct mission analysis brief
Approve restated mission
Develop initial, proposed Cdr’s intent
Issue Cdr’s guidance
Issue warning order
Review facts / assumptions
Bullets in Red are the only ones we’ll focus on.
Others are beyond the scope of ROTC instruction

15. Mission Analysis (Analyze Available and Relevant Documentation)
Operations Orders
SOPs
Verbal guidance
Polices
Regulations
Any other relevant documents
Maps / Terrain

16. Mission Analysis (Specified, Implied, Essential Tasks)
Specified: tasks you have been directed to do.
Implied: tasks you must do, but not necessarily directed to do.
Mission Essential tasks (MET): those few tasks that MUST be accomplished or risk failure.
Example:
Task: Prepare 20 page research paper integrating all concepts learned in Human Resource Management classes.
Specified:
Must be 20 pages
Must be turned in NLT 15 Dec 04
Must include 10 different sources
Topic / Outline must be approved NLT 1 Nov 04
MUST RECEIVE B OR BETTER (CAP STONE PROJECT).
Implied:
Conduct interview of local business experts
Research library for similar papers
Prepare draft, have friend proof draft
Find someone to type / edit / bound report
Mission Essential Tasks:
Conduct thorough review and selection of relevant resources
Topic / Outline must be approved by instructor
Final Draft must be complete by Thanksgiving (vacation / finals)

17. Mission Analysis (Review Avail. Assets)
Library
Internet sources
Clubs or professional associations / journals
Subject matter experts within department
Other students who have previously taken course and written papers on related subject.
Local business personnel

18. Mission Analysis (Determine Constraints)
Restrictions that limit freedom of action:
Parameters you have to operate within.
Things you have been told you have to do.
Things you have been told you can’t do.
Often are redundant with specified tasks.
Research Paper Scenario:
Must incorporate three interviews of faculty or other professionals
Must have topic and outline approved by Professor
Can’t use same topic as previous prerequisite course.

19. Mission Analysis (Facts / Assumptions)
Must be relevant to mission.
Assumptions are used to fill-in information voids (must be realistic)
Don’t want to adopt a specific course of action based on faulty / unrealistic assumptions.
Must be stated up front to ensure all planners are planning based on same approved assumptions
Facts:
My previous paper / topic was…..
Library is not going to be available due to renovation from 1-3 Oct
Have asked local business leader for assistance / interview, and he seems receptive to idea, but wants to know more. Wants to schedule an interview on 25 Sep (he’s out of town between now and then). This individual is key and you can’t pursue topic without their assistance.
Assumptions:
Local business leader will decide to assist me and give me access to information. (If this assumption proves false, you may loose 4 weeks of valuable time).

20. Mission Analysis (Recon Requirements)
What information do I need to complete my plan?
How can I best get that information?
Who is best suited to get the information?
Scenario:
You are assigned to a transportation unit that is responsible for providing Military Support to Civilian Authorities in Alabama in response to Hurricane Ivan.
You are planning a long convoy movement that crosses numerous bridges. You are told that numerous bridges may be washed out due to extensive rain fall / flooding.
Recon Requirements:
Are bridges out?
If so, is a bypass available, how long will the not be available?
Once water recedes, what will be required to repair bridges?
Will bridges support loaded trucks (moving heavy equipment and supplies)?

21. Mission Analysis (Time Analysis)
VERY IMPORTANT STEP
Using school project scenario, now till 15 Dec sounds like a long time, but consider the following:
15 Dec: Paper due
10 Dec: final revisions complete
5-10 Dec: finals week
22-26 Nov: Thanksgiving
2 Dec: semester APFT
1 Dec: final draft complete
15 Nov: interviews completed
15 Nov: topic/outline adjustments incorporated
8 Nov: Expect approval from Professor
2-4 Nov: midterms for two classes
1 Nov: Topic / outline submitted for approval
21-25 Oct: fall break
15 Oct: draft topic / outline complete
7-8 Oct: Fall FTX
15 Oct: research complete
1-4 Oct: library renovation
25 Sept: topic determined
16 Sep: receive mission

22. Mission Analysis (Mission Statement)
Your mission analysis results in a proposed mission statement answering: who, what, when, where, and why.
Who: Cadet Gwosch
What: prepares 20 page research paper
When: due 15 Dec 04
Where: Clemson University
Why: capstone research project for MGT 463.

23. Part II
Course of Action (COA) Development
COA Analysis
COA Comparison

24. COA Development
Purpose: develop feasible, suitable, distinguishable, and acceptable options that if implemented will accomplish mission or resolve problem.
Upon completion of Mission Analysis Brief, Cdr should issue guidance regarding COA development:
COAs he wants to consider.
COAs he does not want to consider
Knowing what you don’t want is just as valuable as knowing what you want.

25. Features of COAs Each COA considered / developed must be:
Suitable (can accomplish mission)
Feasible (within capabilities of unit)
Acceptable (means justify the ends)
Distinguishable (each COA must distinguishable from others)

26. Steps to Develop COAs Analyze relative combat power Generate options
Array initial forces
Develop scheme of maneuver
Assign Headquarters / task organization
Prepare COA statements / sketches
No more than the concept sketches / brief you do for projects.

27. COA Analysis
Purpose: conduct a detailed analysis of each COA. Will result in your ability to compare each COA and will culminate with the staff’s recommendation to the Cdr.

28. Steps to COA Analysis Gather the tools List all friendly forces
List assumptions
List know critical events and decision points
Determine evaluation criteria
Select war-game method
Select method to record and display results
War-game battle and assess results.

29. COA Analysis (Gather Tools)
Maps/pictures/terrain analysis products
COA sketches
Synchronization Matrices
Event Templates
Unit symbols (to move on map/sketch)
Staff estimates

30. COA Analysis (List Friendly Forces)
List all friendly forces:
Current task organization including all units.

31. COA Analysis (List Assumptions)
Review assumptions made during mission analysis:
Are they still valid / relevant?
Do we need to make any additional assumptions?
Do we have any new information that will validate existing assumptions?

32. COA Analysis (Critical Events / DPs)
List know critical events and decision points:
Critical events: key actions you know or anticipate will occur that warrant detailed analysis.
Passage of Lines
Entering a building
Consolidation on a drop zone
Decision Points: key actions you know or anticipate that may require a significant decision.
Enemy force of significant size located on drop zone.
Unexpected enemy force blocking movement along planned route (require alternate route)

33. COA Analysis (Eval. Criteria)
Determine evaluation criteria:
What criteria will you use to analyze and compare each COA.
How will you quantify each criteria?
Criteria typically include:
Does COA facilitate flexibility?
Once we reach a given point, do we have any options remaining?
Does COA allow us to mass our combat power on objective area?
How many squads / platoons can we mass on the objective / engagement area?
Does COA facilitate good Command / Control?
How many / what types of units is each subordinate commander responsible for?
Simplicity?
How simple / complex is our plan?
Surprise?
At what point can we realistically expect the enemy to realize what we are doing?

34. COA Analysis (War Game Method)
Select war-game method:
Belt technique:
Analyze all activities between PL Red and PL Blue.
+synchronizes all activities in a given area
-time consuming
Box technique:
Analyze all activities in a selected area (typically an engagement area, objective area, obstacle breeching, etc.
+very detailed / focused
+great technique in time constrained environment (prioritize events to be war-gamed).
-typically ignores other key events
Avenues in depth:
Analyze all activities from start to finish along a given axis.
+very detailed
-very time consuming

35. COA Analysis (Record / Display Method)
Two methods:
Synchronization Matrix:
+Results in a planning tool that you need/can use later
+More detailed synchronization of events
-More time consuming
Sketch note method:
+Faster
-Less detail
-Requires synch matrix to be developed later.

36. COA Analysis (War-Game / Assess)
War-game battle and assess results.
Decide who moves first:
Attacking force typically goes first.
Fought like a chess game:
I’m doing this ………….
The enemy is reacting by ………….
My counter-action is this…..
Bn S2 typically fights the enemy:
Must be realistic.
Don’t wish the enemy away.
“Hope is not a method”.

37. COA Comparison
Review / grade each COA in relation to your evaluation criteria.
Be as objective as possible.
COA 1
COA 2
Mass Cbt. Power
4 IN Plt on Obj.
2 Tow Plts / Arty / Attk Avn in over watch, Bn mortars plt spts actions on Obj.
1 pts
1 Tow Plts / Attk Avn in over watch, Bn mortars plt (-) spts actions on Obj.
2 pts
Flexibility
Committed once we reach PL Blue (5 km from obj)
2 pts.
Retain flexibility to use alt axis until PL Red (1.5 Km from obj)
1 pt C2
A Co.=4 IN plt+TOW Plt+Eng Sq, Asslt element (a large company),
No major C2 problems anticipated
1 pts.
Simplicity
COA relies heavily on synchronization of direct / indirect fires of DS units (arty / Attk helo)
Organic assets all in position to spt in the event we experience problems with arty / attk helos
Totals (less is best)
7 pts.
5 pts

38. Decision Brief
Once COAs are developed and War-gamed and staff has completed their recommendation, they then conduct a decision brief to the commander.

39. Planning in Time Constrained Environment
This is the norm.
Experience and practice will significantly reduce planning time.
More
Available Planning Time
Less
Less
Level of Cdr Involvement
More
Less
Detail in Cdr Guidance
More
More
Flex / Latitude of Staff
Less
More
#s of COA Developed
Fewer
More
Detailed Op Ord
Less

40. Questions???