1. The South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative’s Third Thursday Web Forum Using SLAMM in Modeling Sea Level Rise for Conservation Planning Thursday, August 16, 2012

2. Third Thursday Web Forum Agenda Introductions Updates Monthly Topic: Using SLAMM in Modeling Sea Level Rise for Conservation Planning Questions & Discussion of Monthly Topic Questions & Discussion of SALCC Close

3. Introductions Janet Cakir, Socioeconomic Adaption Coordinator Amy Keister, GIS Coordinator Ginger Deason, Information Transfer Specialist/Forest Service Liaison Laurie Rounds, Gulf Coast Liaison Hilary Cole, Intern Ken McDermond, Coordinator Matt Rubino, NCSU BaSIC

4. Updates Natural Resource Indicators Francis Marion NF Forest Plan Revision Kick-off Meeting SE SHPO meeting last week SALCC-funded projects on web Private landowner dialogue Any web site member can share news through a blog post www.southatlanticlcc.org

5. a tour of new spatial data products SALCC Third Thursday Web Forum

6. a tour of new spatial data products SALCC Introduction

7. forum The SALCC is a forum in which the private, state and federal conservation community… develops a shared vision of landscape sustainability cooperates in its implementation; and collaborates in its refinement Mission: Create a shared blueprint for landscape conservation actions that sustain natural and cultural resources

8. SALCC Introduction What is the Blueprint? An interactive, living plan that describes the places and actions needed to meet the SALCC’s conservation priorities in the face of future change Conservation Priority = Measurable indicator of success

9. SALCC Introduction *calculated from the NOAA medium resolution digital vector shoreline About the SALCC area Portions of 6 States 89 million acres 92% private land 18,700 miles of coastline*

10. SALCC Introduction Why is the SALCC interested in these spatial data? mission forces that drive change on the landscape To achieve our mission, we need to be able to understand and model the forces that drive change on the landscape cover the entire SALCC area The spatial data products we are highlighting cover the entire SALCC area and as far as your staff knows, these are currently the best data available for our region Do you know of other comparable data that cover our entire region?

11. SLAMM Modeling of Sea Level Rise for Conservation Planning Matt Rubino Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit North Carolina State University SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012

12. What is SLAMM?  Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model  Developed by 1 Park et al. for EPA in the 1980’s  Simulates nearshore processes such as accretion, erosion, marsh migration due to sea level rise  NOT simply an inundation “bathtub” model  Interface for SLAMM v. 5 developed by 2 Clough – Warren Pinnacle Consulting SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012 1 Park, R. A., T. V. Armentano, and C. L. Cloonan. 1986. Predicting the Effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands. Pages 129-152 in J. G. Titus, ed. Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Vol. 4: Sea Level Rise. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. 2 Clough, J. S. 2008. SLAMM 5.0.1. Technical documentation and executable program downloadable from http://www.warrenpinnacle.com/prof/SLAMM/index.html. http://www.warrenpinnacle.com/prof/SLAMM/index.html

13. SLAMM for Conservation: DSL  Designing Sustainable Landscapes (DSL) Project  Coordinated research project between USGS Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Units of NC and AL Atlantic Coast Joint Venture Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center  In part: Predict landscape-level change effects on avian habitats in SE due to urban growth, succession, climate change, and conservation programs  http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/dsl/index.html SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012

14.  2008 – 2010  South Atlantic Migratory Bird Initiative (SAMBI) region: Southeastern Coastal Plain from southern VA to northern FL  SLAMM Vegetation dynamics SLAMM for Conservation: DSL SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012

15. SLAMM Application in the SAMBI SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012 http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/dsl/slr.html Requires 4 spatial inputs:  National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) data cross-walked to 23 (22) SLAMM categories Dikes / Impoundments  Digital Elevation Model – National Elevation Dataset (NED) used at 30m resolution augmented with LiDAR data for NC  Slope derived from DEM  Impervious surface from National Land Cover Dataset

16. SLAMM Application in the SAMBI SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012 “Site” file information:  Tidal datum data  Sea level rise trend data  from NOAA NOS/CO- OPs stations  downloadable from NOAA website: http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/station_retrieve.shtml?type=Datums

17. SLAMM Application in the SAMBI SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012 SLAMM v5.0 Interface 6 Sea Level Rise scenarios Option to “protect developed” GIS outputs Adjustable simulation time steps

18. SLAMM Application in the SAMBI SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012 DSL in the SAMBI:  Ran in 10 year increments from 2000 to year 2100  Ran with emission scenarios (SLR) A1B, A2, A1FI, and B2  Protect Developed  Ran separately for each of 39 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes (HUCs)  Outputs available for download from project website

19. 2000 2100 Example A1B

20. SLAMM & Vegetation Dynamics: Process SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012 Urban Growth Models: SLEUTH Global Climate Models Existing Landscape Conditions Range of Future Landscape Conditions (10, 20, 50, 100 yrs) Scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4… Succession & Disturbance Models: TELSA, VDDT Sea Level Rise Modeling: SLAMM Avian Habitat: Species Distribution Models Alternative Management Scenarios

21. SLAMM & Vegetation Dynamics: Scale SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012 DSL in the SAMBI:  Output rasters 30 meters  TELSA modeling polygons MMU ~10 hectares  SLAMM processed by 8-digit HUC ≈ 1800km 2  Scale not appropriate for: Parcel level threat assessments Finer scale land cover type transitions Anything other than regional scale analyses or as a first tier filter for finer scale studies

22. SLAMM Issues SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012  Accretion rates – doesn’t allow for vegetative decay after inundation – no build up of new marsh, only inundation of old marsh  Offshore direction forces transitions  Cross-walking/clumping NWI to 23 SLAMM classes means lose of information  Elevation data – NED has numerous problems – potential fix is LiDAR

23. SALCC Web Forum 16 August 2012 Questions?

24. SALCC Introduction Next steps and how the SALCC will use this product

25. Questions/Comments Questions or comments about Matt’s presentation on SLAMM? Questions or comments in general about the SALCC, what we’re doing, where we’re going, etc.?

26. Contacts Matt Rubino – mjrubino@ncsu.edumjrubino@ncsu.edu Ken McDermond – ken_mcdermond@fws.govken_mcdermond@fws.gov Rua Mordecai – rua@southatlanticlcc.orgrua@southatlanticlcc.org Janet Cakir – janet_cakir@nps.govjanet_cakir@nps.gov Amy Keister – amy_keister@fws.govamy_keister@fws.gov Laurie Rounds – laurie.rounds@noaa.govlaurie.rounds@noaa.gov Ginger Deason – ginger@southatlanticlcc.orgginger@southatlanticlcc.org Hilary Cole – hlcole@ncsu.eduhlcole@ncsu.edu