1. OST What is ‘futures’ and what benefit can it bring? What is ‘futures’ and what benefit can it bring? Jo Marsden Office of Science and Technology 26 October 2005 www.foresight.gov.uk

2. OST Presentation structure The Horizon Scanning Centre and Foresight Background Ways of working Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs: some techniques used with one project Foresight projects: what happened next?

3. OST ………..produce challenging visions of the future to ensure effective strategies now……… ……….. by providing a core of excellence in science- based futures expertise and access to leaders in government, science and business. Foresight and the OST Horizon Scanning Centre…

4. OST Setting strategic context Priorities, Innovation Capability building Public engagement priorities Wild cards! Challenging visions….. Living databases Scanning the Scans Scientists’ views Horizon Scanning Innovation priorities 3

5. OST ∑ Scan Strategic context Authoritative evidence E.g.…….. -ageing -geopolitics -culture -climate Scan Strategic scanning Emerging S&T Explore implications E.g.….. -stem cells -neuroimaging -plastic electronics -teleportation (!)

6. OST Key stakeholders Research Councils Funding charities Foresigh t and horizon scanning Science base Business Government strategy and policy Academics Investigators Innovation support Markets infrastructure Procurement Science informing policy decisions Gov’t needs Business needs Knowledge

7. OST Projects must tackle issues which: Look ahead at least 10 years Are driven by science and technology Have outcomes that can be influenced Are not covered by work carried on elsewhere Require an inter-disciplinary approach Command support Value added impact Futures Networks Value added: existing work Buy in S & T

8. OST Project Organisation Structure Ministerial Stakeholder Group Project Director Sir David King OST Team Expert Advisory Group Expert Engagement Wider Stakeholder Engagement Lead science co-ordinators

9. OST State of the art reviews Visions of the future Consequential actions Enduring networks Innovation in engagement Project Outputs

10. OST Brain science, addiction & drugs: project aims How can we manage the use of psychoactive substances in the future to best advantage for the individual, community and society. What will the psychoactive substances of the future be? What are the effects of using psychoactive substances? What mechanisms do we have to manage psychoactive substances? State of Science Assessment of current and future capabilities Horizon Scan Highlighting advances of greater future impact Scenarios Considering those advances in different social environments Project launch Responses to the findings from interested organisations

11. OST Shell’s 7 questions technique Scoping phase 1.If you could speak to an oracle in the year 2015 what would you like to ask? 2.What is your vision for success? 3.What are the dangers of not achieving your vision? 4.What needs to change (systems, relationships, decision making processes, culture for example) if your vision is to be realised? 5.Looking back 10 years, what are the successes we can build on? And the failures we can learn from? 6.What needs to be done now to ensure that your vision becomes a reality? 7.If you had absolute authority and could do anything is there anything else you would do?

12. OST Structuring our thinking: project issue tree Inputs from 7 questions, scoping workshops (March and April 2004) meetings and discussions with various interested organisations Identified the project’s key questions

13. OST How can we manage the use of psychoactive substances by individuals and society in the future? What psychoactive substances are there likely to be in the future? What are the effects of using psychoactive substances? What mechanisms do we have to manage the use of psychoactive substances? What motivates people to use them? What can scientific advances offer us? Level 1Level 2Level 3 What are their benefits? What are their harms? How can we prevent use? How can we respond to use? Example of part of the Issue Tree

14. OST Areas covered by State-of-Science Reviews Clinical Psychology Experimental Psychology Neuroscience Genomics Pharmacology and Treatments Cognition Enhancers Imaging History of Addiction Drug Testing Behavioural Addiction Life Histories and Narratives Social Policy Sociology Economics Ethics

15. OST Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs Project: horizon scanning Key advances from the state of science reviews Inputs from the state- of-science writers Analyses by the key scientific experts Contributed to the development of the scenarios process Stand alone publication

16. OST Scenarios Henley Centre/Waverley Management Consultants 3 stage process/3 workshops Driver assessment Scenario development Scenario testing and assessment Stakeholders involved at all stages

17. OST Life enhancement Life preservation View-based regulation Evidence-based regulation High performance Decision making is based on scientific knowledge Widespread use of psychoactive substances to optimise performance and for recreation UK pharmas manufacture and supply cognitive enhancers Addiction is seen as an illness to be treated Neighbourhood Watch Decision making is based on prevailing social views Widespread use of psychoactive substances in early stages, declining latterly UK pharmas manufacture and supply Addiction is not tolerated; the regime is punitive Dispense With Care Decision making is based on prevailing social views General intolerance of psychoactive substances other than for treatment UK pharmas have withdrawn from manufacture because of cost constraints in the NHS Addiction is not tolerated; those who self- harm are excluded Treated Positively Decision making is based on scientific knowledge Widespread acceptance of psychoactive substances for treatment; recreational use less so UK pharmas under treat from open-source niche players Addiction is not stigmatised; increasing use of preventative treatment

18. OST Flooding: cross departmental action plan led by Defra Minister Cognitive Systems: four Research Councils and the Wellcome Trust encourage joint research proposals Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum: Technology Strategy support for priority areas identified Cyber Trust: gaming workshops to test robustness of new policies Examples

19. OST Exploiting the electromagnetic spectrum (EEMS) Aims Identify areas of rapidly moving science which presented a significant potential future commercial opportunity for the UK Agree a plan of action to ensure that the UK captures a share of those emerging markets

20. OST EEMS outcomes (12 month evaluation) (full report available on Foresight website) Informing research and development DTI Innovation Group funded 2 projects (£1.6M) Research Councils funded >100 proposals (£37M) Establishing links between business, investors and researchers Venture capital events Conferences Publications Media coverage (New Scientist, Physics World) Strengthening communities of interest Impact of ICT on Healthcare Medical Imaging Network Informing government and other agencies OfCom (pervasive radio frequency area of EEMS) RDAs (findings fed into RDA’s long term research strategies)

21. OST Reflections on futures Futures work is a leap into the unknown for many! Need to carry people with you through a process that isn’t always easy to grasp Use of technical jargon Explain what these futures’ outputs could do for those involved