1. Adapting to climate change in decision making Mark Goldthorpe, UK Climate Impacts Programme Climate change adaptation strategies in Impact Assessments Exeter, 8 th October 2009

2. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Set up by Government in 1997 funded by Defra based at University of Oxford Works through: stakeholder-led research partnerships programmes capacity building “Helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts” Provides free guidance, tools and datasets: www.ukcip.org.uk A boundary organisation

3. UKCIP & IEMA IEMA Practitioner, July 2009 – “Adapting to climate change: a guide to its management in organisations” 1. Managing the process 2. Understanding the climate risk 3. Developing an adaptation strategy

4. 1. Managing the process Understanding the problem Identifying drivers and barriers Overcoming the constraints Who to involve? Mainstreaming adaptation

5. Understanding the problem: from climate... Trends Hotter, drier summers Milder, wetter winters Greater proportion of rain in heavy downpours Sea level rise Events Heat waves Droughts Floods Fewer cold snaps Storms Impacts Damage to physical assets Loss of access to buildings Effects on biological/ industrial processes Uncomfortable indoor environments Damage to critical infrastructure Changing lifestyles and consumer tastes Changing commodity prices/ availability Consequences Loss of business continuity Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs Health/ comfort implications for employees Increased/ decreased productivity Changing markets Effect on reputation

6. ... to consequences Climate Change Potential impacts on: Markets Logistics Process Finance People Premises Management response Reputational risk Health & safety risk Strategic risk Financial risk Operational risk Environmental risk Impacts on Markets Finances Logistics Processes Premises People Consequences for organisation & stakeholders

7. IEMA members’ survey Around 1,000 IEMA members provided feedback, September 2009 62% of organisations are planning now for adaptation to climate change (local government 90%, utilities 76%, other business sectors 62% - 65%) Identifying risks relating to their oMarkets 53% oFinances 46% oLogistics 44% oProcesses 53% oPremises 57% oPeople 49%

8. Identifying drivers and barriers Stakeholder requirements Increasing exposure to liability or costs Opportunities for improvements Adaptation ForAgainst Lack of knowledge or resources Long term / short term decisions Attitudes to risk & uncertainty

9. 2. Understanding the climate risk Vulnerability Critical thresholds Scoping future impacts From impacts to risk

10. Vulnerability is a function of osensitivity to climatic variability & change oexposure to climate risk ocapacity to adapt Affected by factors such as osupply chain, physical assets, activities, market features, locations, resources, institutional arrangements What is vulnerability? An organisation should be able to identify ohow particular types of weather have affected it in the past ocritical thresholds

11. Developing a Local Climate Impacts Profile Uses past experiences and events to review where operations are currently affected by weather risks oreview significant recent local weather events, the consequences and institutional responses in order to understand current vulnerability oassess effectiveness of current response arrangements ouse information to raise awareness and prompt action on high priority threats and opportunities oprocess can then be developed into a more systematic monitoring of impacts oidentify critical thresholds, which, if exceeded will cause unacceptable risks

12. Scoping future impacts: BACLIAT 1.markets 2.logistics 3.process 4.finance 5.people 6.Premises Leading to management responses Climate change provides both ‘challenge’ and ‘opportunity’ Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool A generic framework for considering climate impacts on business areas

13. 3. Developing an adaptation strategy Making a commitment Setting adaptation objectives Prioritising areas for action Identifying adaptation options Evaluating adaptation options Putting together a programme Keeping it relevant

14. Identifying adaptation options Building Adaptive Capacity 1.Create, gather or share information e.g. research 2.Create supportive governance e.g. standards 3.Create supportive organisational structure e.g. partnerships Delivering Adaptation Actions 1.Accept, spread or share loss e.g. Insurance 2.Avoid or minimise negative impacts 3.Exploit positive opportunities e.g. introduce new activity For example: Strategic solution Temporary arrangement Separate hazard from receptor Technical fix Change working practice System for quick recovery Actions for others

15. And finally – important to remember! Support is available Use the skills and knowledge in your organisation Use your professional bodies and networks Use the experience within your sector Use the resources within your region Use the expertise of researchers and consultancies Use national tools and resources – e.g. Defra, Met Office, UKCIP

16. www.ukcip.org.uk Thank you! business@ukcip.org.uk