1. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU- wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Objective: support of the annual assessing of progress in GHG emission reduction in the EU as a wholesupport of the annual assessing of progress in GHG emission reduction in the EU as a whole Responsibilities within ETC/ACC: AEA Technology, Oeko-Institute, RIVM, UBA-BerlinAEA Technology, Oeko-Institute, RIVM, UBA-Berlin

2. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions reason why Two approaches for assessing emission projections for the EU: EU-aggregate national emission projectionsEU-aggregate national emission projections delivered by Member States EU-wide emission projectionsEU-wide emission projections from studies modelling the EU as one region (Sectoral Objectives Study, Blok/de Jager/Hendriks 2001)

3. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Total GHG emissions for EU15 in 2010 101 based on EU-wide projection 100 based on national projection

4. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Total GHG emissions for Member States in 2010 136 129 130 117 127 139 123 122 120 118 119 117 101 110 100 81 94 85 83 81 159 143 111 102 113 114 108 107

5. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Comparison by sectors for total GHG for EU15 in 2010 Emissions assessed by EU Member States or by EU-wide model study are projected to decline significantly or remain stable. So, what is the more probable message?

6. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Comparison by Member States for total GHG in 2010 for the energy sector

7. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Obstacles Policies and measures uncertain state of implementation; since when, really in effect? Consideration in what scenario? (With meas., With additional meas.? Less concrete identification in model runsPolicies and measures uncertain state of implementation; since when, really in effect? Consideration in what scenario? (With meas., With additional meas.? Less concrete identification in model runs Sectoral disaggregation various sector splits and definitionsSectoral disaggregation various sector splits and definitions driving forcesdriving forces only little detail of energy structures, fuel mix, renewables, cogeneration, etc. in some cases Framework assumptions possibly some inconsistency with regard to energy prices, electricity imports/exportsFramework assumptions possibly some inconsistency with regard to energy prices, electricity imports/exports

8. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Follow up More appropriate reporting of emission projectionsMore appropriate reporting of emission projections Further analysis of projections on the basis of more detailed informationFurther analysis of projections on the basis of more detailed information Communication of key factors and reasons for differencesCommunication of key factors and reasons for differences Experts networkExperts network

9. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Thank you and please start discussion now

10. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions support to Under the Monitoring Mechanism: Actual progress supported by Projected progress supported by European Community and Members States greenhouse gas emission trends 1990 – 1999 Prepared by ETC/ACC, EEA Topic report MS analysis of policies and measures and national GHG projections Prepared by AEA T and Fraunhofer Inst. Comparison and analysis of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Prepared by ETC/ACC, to become an EEA Topic report Progress report Prepared by DG Env (AEA T and Fraunhofer Inst.)

11. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Comparison by gases for EU15 in 2010 101 104 84 82 100 103 85 69 020406080100120 GHG (total) CO2 (energy related) N20 CH4 EU-wide projectionsNational projections 1990 = 100

12. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Comparison by Member States for total GHG in 2010 for the transport sector

13. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Comparison by Member States for total GHG in 2010 for the agricultural sector

14. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE February 2002 UBA-B, Bernd Strobel Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions Comparison by Member States for total GHG in 2010 for the waste sector