1. SPECS Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services F.J. Doblas-Reyes ICREA and IC3, Barcelona, Spain

2. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 2 Progression from initial-value problems with weather forecasting at one end and multi-decadal to century projections as a forced boundary condition problem at the other, with climate prediction (sub-seasonal, seasonal and decadal) in the middle. Prediction involves initialization and systematic comparison with a simultaneous reference. Meehl et al. (2009) Climate time scales

3. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 3 Seasonal predictions DJF T2m JJA T2m JJA Prec DJF Prec Correlation of System 3 seasonal forecasts of temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) wrt GHCN and GPCC over 1981-2005. Only values significant with 80% conf. plotted.

4. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 4 (Top) Near-surface temperature multi-model ensemble-mean correlation from CMIP5 decadal initialised predictions (1960-2005), five-year start date frequency; (bottom) correlation difference with the uninitialised predictions of 2-5 year (left) and 6-9 year (right) wrt ERSST and GHCN. Init ensemble- mean correlation Init minus NoInit ensemble- mean correlation difference Doblas-Reyes et al. (2013) Decadal predictions

5. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 5 Averaged precipitation over 10ºW-10ºE for 1982-2008 for GPCP (climatology) and ECMWF System 4 (systematic error) with start dates November (6-month lead time), February (3) and May (0). GPCP climatology ECMWF S4 - GPCP (MAY)ECMWF S4 - GPCP (FEB)ECMWF S4 - GPCP (NOV) Systematic error: WAM (NOV ) (FEB) (MAY )

6. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 6 Seasonal forecasts of November Niño3.4 ERSST (four-month lead) with a persistence-based statistical model, the ECMWF System 3 and CFSV2 forecast systems and the combination of the two. Calibration/combination Rodrigues et al. (2013)

7. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 7 SPECS motivation What: to produce quasi-operational and actionable local climate information Why: need information with improved forecast quality, a focus on extreme climate events and enhanced communication and services for RCOFs, NHMSs and a wide range of public and private stakeholders How: with a new generation of reliable European climate forecast systems, including initialised ESMs, efficient regionalisation tools and combination methods, and an enhanced dissemination and communication protocol Where: over land, focus on Europe, Africa, South America When: seasonal-to-decadal time scales over the longest possible observational period http://www.specs-fp7.eu

8. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 8 SPECS objective SPECS will deliver a new generation of European climate forecast systems, including initialised Earth System Models (ESMs) and efficient regionalisation tools to produce quasi-operational and actionable local climate information over land at seasonal-to- decadal time scales with improved forecast quality and a focus on extreme climate events, and provide an enhanced communication protocol and services to satisfy the climate information needs of a wide range of public and private stakeholders. Substantial links to GEOSS for Climate

9. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 9 Consortium + Brazil 20 partners, coordination IC3 No.Participant organisation nameParticipant legal nameCountry 1 Institut Catal à de Ci è ncies del Clima IC3ES 2Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas EspaciaisINPEBR 3 Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur F ö rderung der Wissenschaften e.V. represented by Max-Planck-Institut f ü r Meteorologie MPGDE 4Het Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch InstituutKNMINL 5Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of OxfordUOXFUK 6 M é t é o-France MeteoFFR 7 Centre Europ é en de Recherche et Formation Avanc é e en Calcul Scientifique CERFACSFR 8Norsk Institutt for LuftforskningNILUNO 9 Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l'Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile ENEAIT 10University of LeedsUNIVLeedsUK 11University of ExeterUNEXEUK 12Meteorologisk InstituttMet.noNO 13VortexVORTEXES 14Met OfficeMETOFFICEUK 15Sveriges Meteorologiska Och Hydrologiska InstitutSMHISE 16 Institut Pierre et Simon Laplace, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique CNRSFR 17University of ReadingUREADUK 18 Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient í ficas CSICES 19European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsECMWFUK 20 Universit ä t Hamburg UniHHDE Long list of affiliated partners and stakeholders, among which GEO

10. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 10 SPECS is part of ECOMS European Climate Observations, Modelling and Services (ECOMS) initiative with these objectives:  ensure close coordination between projects and activities in Europe in the area of seasonal to decadal climate predictions towards climate services  provide thought leadership to the European Commission on future priorities in the area of seasonal to decadal climate predictions towards climate services. Three EU projects are the core of ECOMS: EUPORIAS, NACLIM and SPECS, with a total funding of 26 Meuros. All EU projects related to climate research and climate services are part of ECOMS.

11. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 11 Overall strategy

12. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 12 SPECS impact SPECS and ECOMS bring together several communities: climate modelling, weather and climate forecasting, impact modelling, downscaling. The main project deliverables are a set of public tools and data from the most ambitious coordinate seasonal-to-decadal global prediction experiments to this date. Coordinated experiments  Core: impact of soil moisture and sea-ice initialization, increased resolution, improved stratosphere and enhanced sample size  Tier 1: impact of snow initialization, interactive vegetation/phenology, sensitivity to aerosol and solar irradiance.  Central repository using revised CMIP5/CORDEX standards. Large number of affiliated partners and stakeholders, including major international programmes.

13. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 13 Future GLACE-3  SPECS could be the European contribution to the future GLACE- 3.  GLACE-3 will aim at assessing the impact of initializing soil moisture and snow.  Four-month long forecasts, 10-member ensembles, 1986-2012, start in November, February, May, June, July, August, ERA- Interim based forcings (WFDEI, WATCH), prescribed and fixed vegetation maps and biophysical properties.  Four experiments:  CLIM: initialize with soil moisture and snow climatology.  INI1: initialize with reanalysis of soil moisture and snow.  PERFECTBOUNDARY: prescribe daily soil moisture and snow reanalysis.  INI2: initialize with multi-model reanalysis of soil moisture and snow.

14. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 14 CMIP5 decadal predictions Decadal predictions (2-5 forecast years) from the CMIP5 multi-model (6 systems, initialized solid, historical and RCP4.5 dashed) over 1960-2005 for global-mean temperature, the Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. GISS and ERSST data used as reference. Doblas-Reyes et al. (2013) Forecast time (4-year averages) Correlation of the ensemble-mean prediction as function of forecast time. Grey area for the 95% confidence level. Root mean square error, where dots represent the forecast times for which Init and NoInit are significantly different at 95% confidence level.

15. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 15 Predictions of the recent hiatus Guemas et al. (2013) (Top) First three forecast years of the decadal predictions (five-member ensembles performed with the EC- Earth2.3 forecast system over 1960-2005 for global-mean sea surface temperature. The ensemble mean is plotted with a thicker dot. (Bottom) Three historical simulations (extended with the RCP4.5 scenario) performed with EC-Earth2.3. The ensemble mean is plotted with a thicker line. ERSST data used as reference in black. Positive impact of the initialization.

16. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 16 Seasonal predictions of 10- metre wind speed from ECMWF System 4 from the November 2010 start date, with the climatology computed from 1981-2010. Reference from ERA Interim. Probability most likely tercile (%) DJF 2010 Very likely (>90%) Likely (>66%) About as likely as not (33-66%) Likely Very likely Below Normal Normal Above Normal Observed 10m wind speed (m/s) DJF 2010Forecast 10m wind speed (m/s) DJF 2010 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.8 -2.0 Climate information

17. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 17 SPECS and GFCS

18. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 18 SPECS links to GEO  Direct link to task “CL-01 Climate Information for Adaptation” through the use of the climate-observing component of GEOSS and the acceleration of the integration of climate products and services into adaptation processes.  “C3 Weather, Climate and Earth-System Prediction Systems” through the SPECS contributions to WWRP’s Subseasonal-to- Seasonal (S2S) and Polar Prediction Project (PPP), and in particular via the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), and the strong role played in the WCRP Working Group of Seasonal-to- Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) and the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI). SPECS will play a central role in the design of CMIP6.  “C4 Easy Access to, and Use of, Climate Information” through the contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and the public dissemination of the SPECS products.

19. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 19 Seasonal prediction: resolution Three-month lead SST correlation for predictions of August ensemble-mean from (left) EC-Earth3, (right) ECMWF System 4 and (bot) EC-Earth3 high (0.25) ocean resolution. Hindcasts 1993-1999.

20. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 20 Overarching objectives  Evaluation of current forecast quality  Implementation of current model improvements  Process-based verification  Innovative methods for forecast quality assessment  Integration of multidimensional observational data  Improved forecast quality at regional scales  Deal with the uncertainties in climate prediction  Achieve reliable and accurate local-to-regional predictions  Illustrate the usefulness of climate information  Support the European contributions to WMO initiatives  “Operationalization”, “climate services” and “reliability” are key concepts of the project.

21. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 21 Genealogy Seasonal PROVOST (FP4), DEMETER (FP5), ENSEMBLES (FP6), AMMA (FP6), APPOSITE (NERC), EUROSIP (operational) Decadal ENSEMBLES (FP6), THOR (FP7), COMBINE (FP7), EPIDOM (France), Miklip (Germany), RUCSS (Spain), CMIP5 Impacts and climate services DEMETER (FP5), QWeCI (FP7), CLIM-RUN (FP7), ECLISE (FP7), EQUIP (NERC) Downscaling and calibration DEMETER (FP5), ENSEMBLES (FP6), QWeCI (FP7), EUROBRISA (Leverhulme) Infrastructure IS-ENES (FP7), PRACE (FP7)

22. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 22 Dependencies ECOMS

23. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 23 Coordinated experiments  Core (to which most forecast systems are expected to contribute) and tier1.  Not prescriptive, general purpose, linked to international activities, definition to evolve during the lifetime of the project.  Most experiments with two phases: development (quick to run and analyze) and production (redesign possible depending on results of development phase).  Standard set up:  Seasonal: 10 members, May and November starts, 1981-2012, seven- month forecast length.  Decadal: 5 members, starts in 1960, 63, 65, 68, 70, 73, 75, 78, 80, 83, 85, 88, 90, 93, 95, 98, 2000, 03, 05, 08, 10, 13, five-year forecast length  Common archiving and dissemination.  Need to define a list of variables to be exchanged.

24. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 24 Core experiments  Assessment of impact of soil-moisture initialisation (WP3.1, EC- Earth, IFS/NEMO, CNRM-CM5, UM, MPI-ESM); phase 1 over May 2003, 2011; phase 2 1991-2012, start dates May, June, July, August, forecast until end of September, two parallel series (one with best possible and another with climatological initialisation) with only difference being the continental initialisation.  Assessment of impact of sea-ice initialisation (WP3.1, EC-Earth, IPSL-CM5, CNRM-CM5, UM, MPI-ESM); phase 1 over November 1996 and 2007; phase 2 over 1991-2012 for three start dates (May, August, November), two parallel series (one with the best possible initialisation and another one with climatological initialisation) with only difference being the sea-ice initialisation.  Assessment of impact of additional start dates (WP3.1, EC- Earth, MPI-ESM, IPSL-CM5); hindcasts over 1960-2012 (preferably starting earlier if initial conditions using long reanalyses are available), one start date every year.

25. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 25 Core experiments  Assessment of impact of increased horizontal resolution (WP4.1, CNRM-CM5, EC-Earth, MPI-ESM, IPSL-CM5, UM); 1) seasonal hindcasts over 1991-2012, five-member ensembles, two start dates per year (first of May, November), four-month forecast length, and 2) decadal hindcasts with the standard decadal set up, with two series (highest possible and standard resolutions).  Assessment of impact of an improved stratosphere including interannually-varying ozone (WP4.3, EC-Earth, IFS/NEMO, CNRM-CM5, UM; phase 1 with 1) seasonal hindcasts with standard seasonal set up but a restricted set of start dates including 1999/2000 and 2009/10 and 2) decadal hindcasts with the standard decadal set up but start dates 1960, 1965, 1990 and 1995; phase 2 experiments with 1) seasonal hindcasts and 2) decadal hindcasts with the standard set up; two parallel series (one with a domain extending to 1 hPa, ~50 km, or higher and at least 15 model levels between the tropopause and 1 hPa/50 km and one with a standard vertical resolution).

26. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 26 Tier-1 experiments  Assessment of impact of snow initialisation (WP3.1, EC-Earth, IFS/NEMO); hindcasts over 2004-2012, six start dates per year (15th October, 1st November, 15th November, 1st December, 1st February, 1st March), forecast length until end of February or May according to the start date, two parallel series (one with best possible and another one with climatological initialisation) with the only difference being the snow initialisation.  Assessment of impact of interactive vegetation/phenology (WP4.2, EC-Earth, IFS/NEMO); hindcasts over 1991-2012, one start date per year (first of May), seven-month forecast length, two parallel series (one with the best possible vegetation/phenology specification, preferably interactive, and one with a fixed vegetation/phenology) with the only difference being the vegetation/phenology.

27. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 27 Tier-1 experiments  Assessment of the sensitivity to aerosol (WP4.3, EC-Earth, IFS/NEMO, UM); 1) seasonal with standard set up, 2) decadal with standard set up, two parallel series (one with best possible and another one with the standard aerosol specification and initialisation) with the only difference being the aerosol specification and initialisation; the CTM experiments will consist in five-year, three-member ensemble decadal hindcasts for the 1980s and 1990s with a comparison with a twin experiment using specified aerosols.  Assessment of the sensitivity to solar irradiance variations (WP4.3, IFS/NEMO, UM); 1) seasonal with standard set up, 2) decadal with standard set up; two parallel series (one with varying solar irradiance following the best observations and another one with a constant value) with the only difference being the specification of the solar irradiance.

28. GEO European Project Workshop, 15 April 2013 28 Affiliated and stakeholders Stakeholders: institutions (either public or private) that are interested in the application of the outcomes of the project and, at the same time, are ready to provide feedback on their development; to be linked to the dissemination in RT6 European RCOFs (SEECOF), AMMA, ACMAD, JRC-MARS, IDAE (Spain), EWEA, Alstom Wind, TERNA (Italy), ONS (Brazil), PRIMET, Willis Research Network Affiliated partners: institutions and international programmes that, not being SPECS partners, have expressed an interest in collaborating with SPECS GFCS, WCRP (WMAC, WGSIP, DIG), WMO’s LC-LRFMME, WMO’s RAVI RCC, ESA’s CMUG, JPI-Climate, APCC, PRACE, GAW, WWRP (PPP, SSP), GEO, GMES-Climate, NOAA-MAPP; New: IRI, DWD, Italian Civil Protection, CCCma