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Published byGeorgia York Modified over 9 years ago
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Belgrad nov. 2013 SEECOF-10 Forecasts for DJF Christian Viel Météo-France
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2 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary
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3 Oceanic analysis SST Oct. 2013 Ocean analysis From MERCATOR, reference GLORYS 1992-2009
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4 Ocean analysis AugustSeptemberOctober Equatorial Pacific Equatorial AtlanticEquatorial Indian Kelvin waves time
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5 Weak SST anomalies in equatorial regions : –Atlantic : ~neutral –Pacific : weak positive anomaly in the western part, becoming neutral in the eastern part (warming) ENSO phase : neutral –Indian : west neutral, east positive IOD still negative (but now ~0) Ocean analysis Niño3.4
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6 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary
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7 Ocean forecasts SST forecasts Météo France ECMWF
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8 Niño3.4 Ocean forecasts – Central Pacific
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9 Ocean forecasts - Atlantic Northern tropical Atlantic (TNA) :
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10 Tropics : Pacific : weak positive anomaly around the Warm Pool; ENSO neutral Indian : IOD ~0 Atlantic : warmer than normal conditions in Northern sub-tropics Ocean forecasts
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11 Ocean forecasts
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12 NAO- NAO+ Atlantic ridge Blocking SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regime occurrences in DJF (MF model) Lower Tercile Upper Tercile Lower Tercile (significance threshold 70 %) Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes
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13 Regime et mean TT,RR in winter
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14 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary
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15 Tropical response and forcing - DJF Shaded areas : velocity potential anomalies (divergent circulation anomalies) green upward motion anomaly pink downward motion anomaly Isolines : stream function anomalies (rotational circulation anomalies) blue lines cyclonic (in NH) red lines anticyclonic (in NH) Upper troposphere circulation fields (200 hPa) + + + - - -
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16 Mid-Latitude Response - DJF
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17 Mid-Latitude Response - DJF
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18 Relatively good consistency in tropical response to SST forcing But no trace of teleconnection from tropics to NH mid-latitude limited predictability related to tropical forcing General Circulation forecasts - DJF
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19 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary
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20 Temperature probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001)
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21 Temperature probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001)
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22 Precipitation probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001) outer-quintile categories
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23 Precipitation probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001) outer-quintile categories
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24 Summary for DJF. - close to normal conditions in equatorial waveguides, despite of warming of SST anomalies over the central part of Equatorial Pacific ENSO : neutral conditions - limited predictability over mid-latitudes (Europe) - some signal (for T) over the Mediterranean basin : slightly enhanced probabilities of warmer than normal conditions
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25 Temperature and rainfall scenarios for Europe : DJF Skill (1987-2001) T RR http://elaboration.seasonal.meteo.fr Not yet available
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27 NAO- NAO+ Atlantic ridge Blocking SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regime occurrences in DJF (MF model) Lower Tercile Upper Tercile Lower Tercile (significance threshold 70 %) Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes
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28 Regime et mean TT,RR in winter
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29 Les produits « génériques » Distribution (pdf) de l’ expérience de référence Limites des catégories Catégorie « en-dessous de la Normale » (33% fréquence) « forte » Anomalie Négative (16% fréquence) Catégorie « au-dessus de la Normale » (33% fréquence) « forte » Anomalie Positive (16% fréquence) - 1,0 * σ 1,0 * σ 0,43 * σ- 0,43 * σ Catégorie « Normale »
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