1. Slide 1 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 TIGGE at ECMWF David Richardson, Head, Meteorological Operations Section david.richardson@ecmwf.int Slide 1

2. Slide 2 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 ECMWF TIGGE archive  The TIGGE database now contains five years of global EPS data  Holds more than 520 terabytes (2.6 billion fields).  There are around 1300 registered users of the TIGGE data portal Slide 2

3. Slide 3 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 ECMWF TIGGE archive Slide 3

4. Slide 4 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 ECMWF TIGGE archive Slide 4

5. Slide 5 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 ECMWF TIGGE archive - changes  BoM, KMA stopped providing EPS to TIGGE archive  KMA now testing sending higher resolution EPS  New data:  JMA 00 UTC control step 0 (as analysis)  CMA analysis (06, 18)??  problem with database for 1 week – needed to ask centres to resend. All gaps filled. Thanks to all who did that  Access – new batch access to TIGGE archive (python, perl)  next generation data portal under development  Planned GEOWOW developments:  timeseries for small number of fields  TIGGE-LAM, netcdf Slide 5

6. Slide 6 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011  GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is an EU-funded FP7 project that will begin in September 2011.  GEOWOW will propose and validate a multi-disciplinary, distributed architectural model federating Earth Observation and other Earth Science data holdings and put this model forward as the European contribution to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Common Infrastructure. Slide 6

7. Slide 7 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 GEOWOW  The GEO Capacity Building Strategy focuses on three elements: human, institutional and infrastructure.  The Weather component of the GEOWOW project will address all three by improving the access to THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data and developing and demonstrating products using this data in collaboration with users in developing countries, including providing education and training.  GEOWOW will significantly enhance the accessibility of the TIGGE archive at ECMWF for the wider user community, in particular the ability to efficiently access long time series of forecast data at user-specified locations. Slide 7

8. Slide 8 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 GEOWOW  3 years: September 2011 – August 2014  Co-ordinated by ESA  Total funding from EU: 7 M euros  For weather: 1.1 M euros  ECMWF  Met Office  Météo-France  Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Slide 8

9. Slide 9 The operational forecast system  High resolution deterministic forecast: twice per day 16 km 91-level, to 10 days ahead  Ensemble forecast (EPS): twice daily 51 members, 32/65 km 62-level, to 15 days ahead extended to 32 days once a week (Monthly forecast)  Ocean waves: twice daily  Global: 10 days ahead at 28 km  Limited Area Wave (LAW): 5 days ahead at 10 km  Ensemble: 15 days ahead at 55 km  Seasonal forecast: once a month 41-members, 125 km 62 levels, to 7 months ahead a sub-set ensemble of 11 members is run for 13 months every quarter GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Slide 9

10. Slide 10 The operational ECMWF EPS The operational version of the EPS includes 51 forecasts with resolution: T L 639L62 (~32km, 62 levels) from day 0 to 10, T L 319L62 (~64km, 62 levels) from day 10 to 15 (32 at 00UTC on Thursdays). Initial uncertainties are simulated by adding to the unperturbed analyses a combination of T42L62 singular vectors, computed to optimize total energy growth over a 48h time interval (OTI), and perturbations generated using the new ECMWF Ensemble Data Assimilation (EDA) system. Model uncertainties are simulated by adding stochastic perturbations to the tendencies due to parameterized physical processes (SPPT scheme) and using a stochastic backscatter (SPBS) scheme. The EPS is run twice a day, at 00 and 12 UTC; the 00 UTC run is fully coupled to the HOPE ocean model after day 10. NH SH TR Definition of the perturbed ICs 1 1 2 2 50 51 ….. Products

11. Slide 11 Summary of EPS changes  Initial perturbations:  2009 : Combination of Singular Vectors (SVs) optimised in two 48-hour windows: [t0, t0+48h] and [t0-48h, t0]  2011 : Combination of EDA perturbations (diff. between 10 EDA analyses) and SVs optimised in the [t0, t0+48h] window with reduced (50%) amplitude  Simulation of model uncertainty:  2009 : SPPT with 1 spatial scale, white-noise time variab. with 6-hour time scale  2011 : SPPT with 3 spatial and time scales, red-noise variability in time (Markov chain), plus stochastic backscatter (SPBS)

12. Slide 12  Since 22 June 2010, differences between 6h perturbed forecasts from the ECMWF Ensemble Data Assimilation system have been combined with singular vectors to generate the EPS initial perturbations  The ten T L 399L91 EDA perturbed analyses are generated by randomly perturbing the observations and the SST, and by running the forecast model with the SPPT stochastic scheme. The random perturbations are defined by sampling a normal distribution with the observation error standard deviation Simulation of initial uncertainty using EDA  Since 18 May 2011, the EDA has been used to specify the background errors “of the day” in the high-resolution 4D- Var U850 background error standard deviation Randomization method (ope, left) – EDA (cy36r4, right)

13. Slide 13 500 km 6 h 1000 km 3 d 2000 km 30 d Simulation of model uncertainty: multi- scale SPPT Since Oct 1998, the EPS has included a stochastic scheme designed to simulate random model errors due to parameterized physical processes (SPPT). Since Nov 2010, the scheme includes a multi- scale pattern generator to account for parameterization errors on multiple spatial and temporal scales. (from M Leutbecher)

14. Slide 14 Since Nov 2010, a stochastic backscatter scheme (SPBS) is also used in the EPS:  Rationale: a fraction of the dissipated energy is backscattered upscale and acts as streamfunction forcing for the resolved-scale flow (Shutts & Palmer 2004, Shutts 2005, Berner et al 2009)  Streamfunction forcing is given by: Recent improvements/updates include:  Revised convective dissipation calculation  Revised dissipation rate smoothing  Changed pressure dependency of vertical correlations  Option to force only part of the spectrum [reduces computational cost and avoids problems detected with small scale forcing] Streamfunction forcing Backscatter ratio Total dissipation rate Pattern generator Simulation of model uncertainty: SPBS

15. Slide 15 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Recent operational changes 2010-2011  24 June 2010 (cycle 36r2) includes  Changes to EPS initial-time perturbations  9 November 2010 (cycle 36r4) includes  New cloud scheme  New surface analysis schemes are introduced for snow and soil moisture  EPS: revised model uncertainty; retuned initial perturbation amplitudes  18 May 2011 (cycle 37r2) includes  Data assimilation changes  Technical change: model-level data in GRIB-2 format Slide 15

16. Slide 16 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 EPS probability skill, RPSS, T850, N hem Monthly score and 12-month running mean (bold) of Ranked Probability Skill Score for EPS forecasts of T850 at day 3 (blue), 5 (red) and 7 (black) for N hem Slide 16

17. Slide 17 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 EPS probability skill, RPSS, T850, Europe Monthly score and 12-month running mean (bold) of Ranked Probability Skill Score for EPS forecasts of T850 at day 3 (blue), 5 (red) and 7 (black) for Europe Slide 17

18. Slide 18 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 EPS skill T850 NH Slide 18

19. Slide 19 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 EPS spread/skill 850 wind tropics Slide 19

20. Slide 20 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 EPS skill 850 wind tropics Slide 20

21. Slide 21 EPS probabilistic precipitation skill GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Slide 21

22. Slide 22 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Product Development  New parameters from deterministic forecast  Height of lowest cloud base  Height of 0°C level  New parameters from EPS  L, M, H cloud cover Slide 22

23. Slide 23 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 New EPS clustering  New clustering operational since 16 November  Graphical products on the ECMWF website at: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/newclusters/newclusters/  Cluster fields available via dissemination  The disseminated products are based on the day 5-7 time range (time steps 120, 132, 144, 156 and 168)  Old clusters will be switched off later this year Slide 23

24. Slide 24 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 New EPS clustering Slide 24

25. Slide 25 Regime transitions EPS forecast of large-scale weather regimes. Daily time series for November 2010 to April 2011 of the number of EPS clusters and observed climatological regimes (coloured circles). The climatological regime associated with each cluster is indicated by the colour of the bar: blue - positive NAO pattern, green - negative NAO, red – blocking, violet - Atlantic ridge. The EPS clusters are computed over forecast days 5-7. Slide 25 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011

26. Slide 26 Climatological regimes Slide 26 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011

27. Slide 27 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Tropical cyclones  Tracking of tropical cyclones developing during forecast (medium-range and monthly products on web)  Operational tracks – deterministic up to 1 hour earlier  Under test: replacement of operational tracker (will include tracks beyond 5 days) Slide 27

28. Slide 28 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Tropical cyclones Slide 28 Typhoon Songda 19-29 May 2011 Operational tracker

29. Slide 29 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Tropical cyclones Slide 29

30. Slide 30 Track plumes for the TC are plotted for the EPS members, T1279 and Control. Each colour represents 24h forecast interval (EPS) 0-24h 24-48h 48-72h 72-96h 96-120h 120-144h 144-168h Slide 30 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011

31. Slide 31 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Product Development  Extra-tropical cyclone products (web products)  Surface weather parameters (new web plots)  Extension of EFI Slide 31

32. Slide 32 ecCharts – new interactive web plots GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Slide 32