1. Monthly Review – November 2013 Some tropical indices and SST, and MJO Some mid-latitude anomalies Global climate change issues Noteworthy weather events Other ongoings Special: “The fluid is falling”, both in the ocean/atmosphere Huug van den Dool, Dec, 6, 2013

2. 6 th of the month is early No NMME Only some monthly updates are in

9. Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014.

10. MJO

11. Mid-Latitude (or global)

19. A few global climate change issues

21. September 2013: 392.93 ppm September 2012: 390.40 ppm

24. Noteworthy weather

26. /home/www/cpc/htdocs/products/people/wd 51hd/sst/201311

28. Thanksgiving eve!

29. 2 nd “once in 20 year” storm in NW Europe, in a 2 month window! Dec, 5 and Oct, 28.

30. Greatest pressure drop: 12 mb/6 hours.

31. Nov, 13, 2013: Tropical cyclone 3A hitting Somalia

35. Other ongoings

36. YearWgtYearWgtYearWgtYearWgtYearWgtYearWeigt 1956 11966 01976-21986-71996 32006 2 1957 51967 61977 41987-111997-72007 3 1958 41968 01978 419881998-32008 8 1959 31969 21979111989-31999-82009 6 1960-21970 41980-71990112000 6201013 1961-6197119811991-32001 92011 8 1962 01972 41982-51992-22002 32012 5 1963-619731983-81993-112003 42013NA 1964-31974-61984 21994 22004 1 1965-31975-61985-81995 02005 6 CA-SST weights at the end of October 2013

37. YearWgtYearWgtYearWgtYearWgtYearWgtYearWeigt 1956 119661976-21986-51996 32006 2 1957 51967 41977 41987-111997-62007 6 1958 41968 01978 3198811998-42008 5 1959 51969 419798198931999-72009 7 1960-21970 41980-4199082000 420109 1961-21971-31981-21991-52001 92011 8 1962 01972 71982-41992-22002 32012 7 1963-419731983-51993-132003 72013NA 1964-31974-51984 -21994 22004 3 1965-41975-51985-61995 -32005 4 CA-SST weights at the end of November 2013 Little changes in weight in one month (that is good!) Last 13 years are positive (supports or is consistent with “OCN”) Weights are small, only three in excess of |0.10|, very unusual 1987 continues as a high –ve weight. Reaching 2 years soon. Determinism?

38. Specification or down-scaling at lead -3

39. Specification or down-scaling at lead -3

41. The fluids are falling Not about November - Heat Burst (atmosphere) - Brinicle (ocean)

43. http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/15835017

44. Have a safe Sunday, Dec, 8, 2013