1. Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing This material (Comp4_Unit10a) was developed by Oregon Health and Science University, funded by the Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology under Award Number IU24OC000015. Lecture a

2. Future of Computing Learning Objectives Describe the latest advances in technology (Lecture a, b) Discuss the implications of advances in technology for healthcare systems, including potential risks (Lecture a, b) 2 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

3. Trends in Computing Past predictions Changes in ownership Changes in physical size Changes in system memory Changes in system storage Changes in system connectivity 3 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

4. Past Predictions “I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” (Prentice-Hall editor of business books, 1957) "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” (Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977) Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 4

5. Changes in Ownership Governments in the 1940s Businesses in the 1950s and 1960s Personal computers (PCs) in 1970s Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 5

6. Changes in Physical Size (Gerstenberger, 1968, PD-US) 6 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

7. Changes in Physical Size (continued) (Kögl, S. 2005, CC BY-SA 3.0)(Flominator. 2009, CC BY-SA 3.0) 7 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

8. Changes in Physical Size (continued) (Stele 2007, CC BY-SA 3.0)(Yoggy 2009, CC BY 2.0) 8 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

9. Changes in Physical Size (continued) ( Reggel 2009, PD-US) 9 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

10. Changes in System Memory 1 KB for early home systems 2 or 4 GB common for today’s home systems Demonstrates Moore’s “law”: trend showing that the number of components that can be placed on a circuit doubles every two years Observation by Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder, in 1965 (Schaller, R.R., 1997). Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 10

11. Changes in System Storage (Hankwang 2009, CC BY-SA 3.0) 11 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

12. Changes in System Connectivity Early computers were stand-alone systems Connected by telephone lines in 1970s and 1980s Internet for personal use through dial-up connections in 1990s –Slow speed – 56 Kbps typical –Still available today Wireless hotspots and WiMAX Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 12

13. User Interfaces Mechanism used to provide data and commands to the computer system Mechanism by which the results of computer processes are displayed to the user Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 13

14. Plug-In cables (US Army c1947 to 1955, PD-US) 14 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

15. Punch Cards Left image: (Ranveig 2005, PD-US) Right image: (waelder 2007, CC BY-SA 3.0) 15 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

16. Keyboard and Video Monitor (Fischer 2009 CC BY-SA 3.0) 16 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

17. Mouse (emijrp 2009, CC BY-SA 3.0) 17 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

18. Touch screens (Platt 2006, PD-US)(Paranoid 2004, PD-US) 18 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

19. Tablets Commercially available since late 1980s Small and thin Designed to use without keyboard Limited adoption – until recently –Apple iPad over 3,000,000 units sold in first three months –Apple iPad 2 over 1,000,000 units sold in first 3 days Is it a trend? Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 19

20. Mobile Devices PDAs Telephones Internet access Will the tablet and mobile device merge? Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 20

21. Voice Recognition Science fiction in the 1960s Some support for computer systems Mobile device usage –Siri on the iPhone 4S Vocera Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 21

22. Motion Interfaces Latest advances seen in mobile phones and gaming systems User interfaces include device or remote device orientation and accelerometer sensors –Mobile phones –Nintendo Wii Motion detection interfaces –Microsoft Xbox 360 Kinect gesture keyboarding Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 22

23. Tables and Walls? Think large Why be limited to a computer screen? (Ford 2009, PD-US) 23 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

24. Flexible Hardware Flexible, ultra-thin displays undergoing development Flexible keyboards now available OLED displays Smart textiles Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 24

25. Implications for Healthcare Smaller test and monitoring equipment –Small, portable ultrasounds –Monitoring patch instead of a holster Improvements –Handheld ultrasound instead of stethoscope –Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE http://www.qualcommtricorderxprize.org/ Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a 25

26. Future of Computing Summary – Lecture a Trends in computing User interfaces 26 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

27. Unit Title References – Lecture a References Apple Inc. (2012). Siri. Your wish is its command. Retrieved Jan 2012 from: http://www.apple.com/iphone/features/siri.html. http://www.apple.com/iphone/features/siri.html Penedo, M. (2002 Spring/Summer). Technology Trends and Predictions: What Will the Future Bring to Our Lives? Technology Review Journal, pp. 137-151. Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE: http://www.qualcommtricorderxprize.org/http://www.qualcommtricorderxprize.org/ Schaller, R.R. (1997 June). “Moore's law: past, present and future," Spectrum, IEEE, vol.34, no.6, pp.52-59. Simon, Stephanie (2011 March 28). Medicine on the Move: Mobile devices help improve treatment. Retrieved Jan 2012 from The Wall Street Journal website: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703559604576174842490398186.html. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703559604576174842490398186.html Venugopal, S.M.; Allee, D.R.; Quevedo-Lopez, M.; Gnade, B.; Forsythe, E.; Morton, D. (2010 2-6 May). "Flexible Electronics: What can it do? What should it do?," Reliability Physics Symposium (IRPS), 2010 IEEE International, vol., no., pp.644-649, doi: 10.1109/IRPS.2010.5488757. Retrieved Jan 2012 from: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=5488757&isnumber=5488659.http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=5488757&isnumber=5488659 vocera: Transforming Hospitals. (n.d.). Retrieved January 2012, from VOCERA website: http://vocera.com/.http://vocera.com/ Welsh, H. F. and Porter, V. J. (1956 December 10 - 12). A large-capacity drum-file memory system. In Papers and Discussions Presented At the December 10-12, 1956, Eastern Joint Computer Conference: New Developments in Computers (New York, New York,. AIEE-IRE '56 (Eastern). ACM, New York, NY, 136-139. DOI= http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/1455533.1455564. http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/1455533.1455564 27 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

28. Unit Title References – Lecture a Images Slide6: Gerstenberger, S. (1968). http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:IBM2314DiskDrivesAndIBM2540CardReaderPunch.jpg. Retrieved January 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org. (PD-US). http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:IBM2314DiskDrivesAndIBM2540CardReaderPunch.jpghttp://www.mediawiki.org Slide 7: Kögl, S. (2005, December 18). PDP11/40. Retrieved January 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Pdp-11-40.jpg. http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Pdp-11-40.jpg Slide 7: Flominator. (2009, September 27). Tandy Corporation (Radio Shack) TRS-80 Model I computer system. Retrieved January 2012, from WikiMedia Commons website: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TRS- 80_Model_I_-_Rechnermuseum_Cropped.jpg. (CC BY-SA 3.0).http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TRS- 80_Model_I_-_Rechnermuseum_Cropped.jpg Slide 8: Stele. (2007, December 24). Three-quarter view of a Compaq Presario 1200 series (model 12XL405) notebook. Retrieved January 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Compaq_presario_12XL405.jpg. (CC BY-SA 3.0). http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Compaq_presario_12XL405.jpg Slide 8: Yoggy (2009, January 8). Sony VAIO P. Retrieved January 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Sony_VAIO_P.jpg. (CC BY 2.0) http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Sony_VAIO_P.jpg Slide 9: Reggel. (2009, June 28). iPhone, iPhone 3G and 3GS. Retrieved January 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Iphone2g3g3gson.jpg. (PD-US). http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Iphone2g3g3gson.jpg Slide 11: Hankwang. (2009, February 25). Hard disk capacity between 1980 and present (2011), based on for- retail products. Retrieved January 2012, from Wikimedia Commons website: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hard_drive_capacity_over_time.svg. (CC BY-SA 3.0). http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hard_drive_capacity_over_time.svg Slide 14: US Army. (c1947 to 1955). The ENIAC. Retrieved January 2012, from Media Wiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Eniac.jpg. (PD-US). http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Eniac.jpg Slide 15: Ranveig (2005, February 13). Punchcard without holes. Retrieved January 2012, from Wikimedia Commons website: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hollerith_card.jpg. (PD-US).http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hollerith_card.jpg 28 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a

29. Unit Title References – Lecture a Images Slide15: waelder (2007, March 21). IBM card punch station 029. Retrieved January 2012, from Media Wiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:IBM_card_punch_029.JPG. (CC BY-SA 3.0).http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:IBM_card_punch_029.JPG Slide 16: Fischer, D. (2009, July 18). IBM 3279 block mode terminal, with console-style keyboard. From the collection of the RCS. Retrieved January 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:IBM- 3279.jpg. (CC BY-SA 3.0).http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:IBM- 3279.jpg Slide 17: emijrp, D. (2009, July 18). IBM 3279 block mode terminal, with console-style keyboard. From the collection of the RCS. Retrieved January, 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Varios_ratones.jpg. (CC BY-SA 3.0). http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:Varios_ratones.jpg Slide 18: Platt, M. (2006, June 5). Automated teller machine (ATM) produced by NCR. Retrieved January, 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:NCR_ATM.JPG. (PD-US).http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:NCR_ATM.JPG Slide 18: Paranoid (2004, July 1). PDA: Palm IIIxe. Retrieved January, 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:PDA.jpg. http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:PDA.jpg Slide 23: Ford, C. E. (2009, October 2). In the Future Warfare Center's Simulation Center, Justin Novak of SMDC/ARSTRAT illustrates the uses of the Virtual Sandbox table-top display. Retrieved January 2012, from MediaWiki website: http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:US_Army_52292_In_the_Future_Warfare_Center's_Simulation_Center,_Justin_ Novak_of_SMDC-ARSTRAT_illustrates_the_uses_of_the_Virtual_Sandbox_table-top_display.jpg. (PD-US). http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/File:US_Army_52292_In_the_Future_Warfare_Center's_Simulation_Center,_Justin_ Novak_of_SMDC-ARSTRAT_illustrates_the_uses_of_the_Virtual_Sandbox_table-top_display.jpg 29 Health IT Workforce Curriculum Version 3.0/Spring 2012 Introduction to Information and Computer Science The Future of Computing Lecture a