1. Line fits to Salar de Uyuni Data Dry Season 2012 Preliminary Results

2. Location D: Plot of Full, Waxing and Waning Data will be split into three categories: Waxing, Waning, and Full (Moon Phase < 10°)

3. Waning Moon

4. First Order Polynomial (Linear) P(x) = -0.1235x + 76.0743 Degrees of Freedom: 41 Norm of residuals: 36.2294 Residuals random w/ Range -10 to 10 except for outlier at 23 Probably point outside 99% conf

5. Second Order Polynomial P(x) = 0.0024x² - 0.3599x + 80.5672 Degrees of Freedom: 40 Norm of residuals: 35.3460 Similar to 1 st Order Residuals look random. One major outlier, but < 1 st order

6. Third Order Polynomial P(x) = -0.0000x³ + 0.0044x² - 0.4465x + 81.5664 Degrees of Freedom: 39 Norm of residuals: 35.3334 Similar to 1 st and 2 nd as to fit. 0 value for x³

7. Waning fit comments: Not much difference between the three Orders. 2 nd Order appears the best. Looks like a possible curve on the end like waxing, but we don’t have enough data to resolve it.

8. Waxing Moon

9. First Order Polynomial (Linear) P(x) = 0.2236x + 68.1435 Degrees of Freedom: 18 Norm of residuals: 21.3404 Residuals seem to separate. Residuals between -6 to 10 One outlier at 95% confidence

10. Second Order Polynomial P(x) = 0.0095x² - 0.4611x + 78.0640 Degrees of Freedom: 17 Norm of residuals: 19.4375 Curve seems to fit better. Residuals between -7 to 7. Still one outlier at 95% conf.

11. Third Order Polynomial P(x) = 0.0007x³ - 0.0698x² + 2.1745x + 53.3342 Degrees of Freedom: 16 Norm of residuals: 17.4951 Interesting curve that does seem to fit. Residuals between -7 to 4, except for one major outlier(10).

12. Fourth Order Polynomial P(x) = 0.0000x⁴-0.0042x³ + 0.1791x² - 2.9487x + 88.5519 Degrees of Freedom: 16 Norm of residuals: 17.4951 Similar to 3 rd Order, but left end flat. Residuals between -6 to 6; Outlier now within 95% confidence However, value 0 for x⁴

13. Waxing fit comments: 2 nd Order polynomial visually looks good. One outlier at 95% confidence, with random residuals within small range around 0. 3 rd Order looks interesting, but shows one major outlier in residuals 4th Order similar to 3 rd Order except for left end. Residual range smaller than 2 nd order. However, the coefficient for x⁴ is 0 to the fourth place.

14. Full Moon

15. First Order Polynomial (Linear) P(x) = -2.8232x + 95.2369 Degrees of Freedom: 9 Norm of residuals: 14.0320 All data within 95% confidence Residuals spread out at > phase Range between-8 to 10

16. Second Order Polynomial P(x) = -0.1101x² - 1.5609x + 92.1742 Degrees of Freedom: 8 Norm of residuals: 13.8883 All data within 95% confidence Residuals spread out at > phase Range smaller than 1 st (-7 to 9)

17. Third Order Polynomial P(x) = 0.0445x³ - 0.8622x² + 2.1771x + 87.0518 Degrees of Freedom: 7 Norm of residuals: 13.7597 All data within 95% confidence Residuals spread out at > phase Range similar to 2 nd (-7 to 9)

18. Fourth Order Polynomial P(x) = 0.0984x⁴-2.186x³ + 16.481x² - 50.848x + 137.769 Degrees of Freedom: 6 Norm of residuals: 12.5243 Interesting kinks to curve. Residuals look more random Range slightly smaller.

19. Full Moon fit comments: 2 nd Order polynomial visually looks good. Data all within 95% confidence, with random residuals within range between -7 to 9. 3 rd Order not much improvement over 2 nd. 4th Order is very ‘kinky’, though the fit is slightly better than 2 nd. Not sure if this is what we want, though.