1. Vermont Labor Market Information: Nursing Mathew Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor Economic & Labor Market Information Chief

2. Presentation Outline PART I Discussion about Occupational Coding and Upcoming Changes PART II Historical Trends Taking a Look Forward ‘Real-Time’ Indicators

3. Part I: Occupational Coding

4. Occupational Coding and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -The BLS uses a ‘job’ coding system called the Standard Occupation Classification Manual --- or SOC manual -The SOC manual is used predominately in the BLS’ Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Program

5. SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.) -The OES Program collects/codes occupational data producing estimates of: 1. Prevalence (or count) of a particular occupation in a region -Region defined as nation, state, metropolitan areas and other sub-state regions like ‘northern balance of state’ 2. Wage data by occupation -Mean, median, ‘entry-level’, ‘experienced’, etc. 3. Staffing pattern information or occupational distribution by industry -Very interesting data; but less material to this discussion

6. SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.) -In Vermont, VDOL LMI publishes estimates on over 500+ occupations -45 occupations within the occupational family “Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations” (29-xxxx) -12 occupations within the occupational family “Healthcare Support Occupations” (31-xxxx) -Two samples of Vermont employers (or ‘panels’) are conducted each year -Aside from all other limitations related to BLS confidentiality standards, it takes six panels of data to produce OES estimates -Therefore, it takes 3 years before any changes made to the SOC manual are reflected in published OES data

7. SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.) -The 2000 SOC manual (and earlier) did not have significant detail on APRNs -Updates* related to nursing in the 2010 SOC manual: * will be reflected in the May 2013 OES estimates

8. SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.) -VDOL LMI has collected 3 panels (50% of necessary 6 panels) worth of data using the new 2010 SOC code -Estimated employment of 2,800 -Here is a preliminary breakdown of the new Registered Nurse occupational code and the three breakout codes: Occupational Title Percent of Total -Registered Nurses 95.7% -Nurse Anesthetists 1.0% -Nurse Midwives 0.4% -Nurse Practitioner 2.8%

9. Part II: Historical & Future Trending & Current Indicators

10. VT Employment Trend: Nursing -Above average growth rates in all three major nursing occupations -CNAs = 2.7%; LPNs = 1.3%; CNAs = 1.9% -versus 0.2% all covered employment between 1999 and 2010

11. 2008-2018 Long Term Occupational Projections

12. Online Job Postings Aggregate New England Data ~ Feb 2010 – Oct 2011

13. Online Job Postings: Nursing

14. Conclusions: Nursing -SOC changes will produce more data on nursing -Nursing occupations have experienced stronger than average growth over the last decade -Current long term projections expect that to continue -However, online job posting data does indicate a slow down in demand for healthcare occupations and specifically nursing over the last 18 months -Please note: Analysis on ‘real-time’ data has been problematic and should be consulted in the context of other data sources

15. Questions? Thank you Contact Information: Mathew J. Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor 5 Green Mountain Dr. Montpelier, VT 05601-0488 Phone- (802)-828-4153 Mathew.Barewicz@state.vt.us Website: www.vtlmi.info