1. Gone up…now 77.6

3. The Demography of Aging Lecture 3 – Chapter 3

4. Demographics? Study of the size, distribution, and composition of a population 284.5 million in US…

5. 65 years & Older? 35 million…12.4% New England + Maine + New Hampshire + Vermont + Rhode Island + Connecticut + Montana + Idaho + Wyoming + Colorado + New Mexico + Arizona + Utah + Nevada 12.4% now 2020  16.5 2040  20.5 2060  20.8

6. The Demographics of Life USA Source www.populationconnection.org/Communications/demfacts. PDF World 300 millionPopulation, Jan 20076.5 billion 77Population per square mile118 15Births per 1,000 people22 9Deaths per 1,000 people9 2.1Total fertility rate2.8 21% of pop under age 1530 13% of pop over age 657

9. Us: 32 nd : 12.4

11. Median Age is also increasing 50% Above 50% Below

12. Demographic transitions No surprise increase in older adults Theory of Population Change: fertility & mortality will decline from high to low levels because economics & social development Stage I Hi BR Hi DR *Preindustrial Stage II Hi BR low DR Stage III low BR low DR

13. Population Pyramid: bar graph age categories (5 yr) male & female length = percentages 3 types: Expansive: “Broad Base” More younger peeps Constrictive: fewer in younger peeps Stationary: = # peeps in all cats

14. Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 1950 MaleFemale Millions Male Female 8.1%

15. Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2000 Millions MaleFemale = Year 1950

16. Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2050 MaleFemale Millions = Year 2000

17. Baby Boomers

19. What’s causing so many older people since 1900s? Cohort Baby Boomers (fertility) Declining infant & adult mortality Increases in life expectancy Lowering of Fertility “baby bust” (late 1960s-70s) 2045-2050 Slower to marry Fewer children Mortality rates: tot # of deaths in a year per 1,000 individuals Fertility rates: tot # of births in a year per 1,000 individuals Age composition: proportion of young & old in a society

20. Fertility Rates USA

21. 2.33

22. The human life cycle divisions are arbitrary differing from society to society and changing from one time in history to another The five stages of adulthood early adulthood (18-30), middle adulthood (30-50) Later adulthood (50-65) young-old age (65-80) old-old age (> 80) OctogenarianOctogenarian: Someone in their eighties. NonagenarianNonagenarian: Someone in their nineties. CentenarianCentenarian: Someone 100 or more. SupercentenarianSupercentenarian: Someone 110 years old or more (no upper limit) Riley (1986) "young-old" (ages 65 to 74) "old-old" (ages 75 to 85) "oldest-old" (over age 85) important

23. 1. SEX COMPOSITION: Sex Ratio: the # of males for every 100 females 1900: 102 1930: 100.4 1980: 94.5 1990: 95.1 2000:96.1 2025: 96.0

24. 12.4% (2000) 59% female 41% male 6 million more women!!!! At birth 105 boys to 100 girls 35 years of age Female begin to surpass Males Centenarians & super 1. SEX COMPOSITION

25. Where to go to get a date…

26. Race Ethnicity Composition of US 2003: Minorities represent about 18% of 65+ 2050: Projected 40% of 65+ 2. ETHNICITY

27. Inequities among the races Blacks have lower life expectancy as compared to whites

28. Inequities among the races

29. - 5.4 - 6.3

31. Where do older adults live?

32. Where do older adults not live? CA  3.6 million (11%) Florida  2.7 (18%) New York  2.4 (13%) Texas  2.0 (9%) Alaska  5.5 % 1. LOCATION

34. Old-age dependency ratio: 65+ (too old to work) _____________ 18-64 (working) 1930: 1:11 1980: 1:5.4 2000: 1:5 2030: 1:3 Familial old-age dependency ratio: 65 to 84 (elderly parents) ___________________ 45 to 54 (elderly children) 1980: 1.02:1 2000:.8:1 2030: 1.6:1