1. Ups and Downs To what extent is this the worst economic downturn in over 30 years? Nick Langston-Able ESRC Festival of Social Science The Future of Economics Bristol University November 2011 www.economicsrevealed.co.uk www.economicsrevealed.blogspot.com

2. The 1980s – a reminder …

3. Economic Growth

4. Inflation

5. Interest Rates

6. Unemployment

7. Government Spending

8. BoP Current Account

9. Your very own recession Is the current recession the worst in the last 30 years and is it the worst you will experience? Is the current recession the worst in the last 30 years and is it the worst you will experience?

10. Economic Growth (worse)

11. Inflation (better)

12. Interest Rates (better!)

13. Unemployment (better)

14. BoP Current Account (worse than 1980-82 but better than 1990-92)

15. Govt Borrowing (worse)

16. Government Spending Comparisons

17. Conclusion The evidence suggests that the current economic downturn is not as bad as previous downturns. Inflation is much less of a problem, interest rates are low and whilst unemployment is high, it has still not reached levels seen in the 1980s and early 1990s. Put simply – we’ve had it worse. The evidence suggests that the current economic downturn is not as bad as previous downturns. Inflation is much less of a problem, interest rates are low and whilst unemployment is high, it has still not reached levels seen in the 1980s and early 1990s. Put simply – we’ve had it worse.

18. Conclusion 2 The evidence suggests that this is indeed the worst economic downturn in over 30 years. Whilst there has been less of a problem with inflation and high interest rates, unemployment is almost as high and may well still rise. The government is also running a large budget deficit in addition to the UK experiencing a reasonably large current account deficit. Put simply – we’re doomed. The evidence suggests that this is indeed the worst economic downturn in over 30 years. Whilst there has been less of a problem with inflation and high interest rates, unemployment is almost as high and may well still rise. The government is also running a large budget deficit in addition to the UK experiencing a reasonably large current account deficit. Put simply – we’re doomed.

19. Conclusion 3 The extent to which this is the worst economic downturn in over 30 years is up for debate. There are a number of indicators which suggest this may be the case but equally there are other indicators which suggest that the UK experienced worse problems in the 1980s and 1990s. It is also difficult to judge the nature of the current downturn in terms of whether the UK is past the worst and how long a recovery might take. Put simply – dunno really. The extent to which this is the worst economic downturn in over 30 years is up for debate. There are a number of indicators which suggest this may be the case but equally there are other indicators which suggest that the UK experienced worse problems in the 1980s and 1990s. It is also difficult to judge the nature of the current downturn in terms of whether the UK is past the worst and how long a recovery might take. Put simply – dunno really.

20. Thank You Nick Langston-Able www.economicsrevealed.co.uk www.economicsrevealed.blogspot.com