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Consumer Staples Company Presentation Des Dudaney Erica Elsasser Neil Hertenstein Mun Yi Se Tho May 18 th, 2010
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary 1.Sector Summary 2.Company Comparison 3. PepsiCo Analysis 4. P & G Analysis 5. Recommendation Table of Contents
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Recommendation Sell 67 BP of Pepsi Sell 40 BP of P&G Hold Philip Morris & Wal-Mart Recomm- endations
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Sector Summary
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary SIM Portfolio SectorS&P 500 WeightSIM Weight+/- Consumer Discretionary10.55%10.44%-0.11% Consumer Staples10.91%11.71%0.80% Energy11.18%9.76%-1.43% Financials16.47%11.41%-5.07% Health Care11.55%14.63%3.07% Industrials10.76%13.10%2.34% Information Technology18.91%20.18%1.27% Materials3.45%1.64%-1.82% Telecommunication2.73%3.70%0.98% Utilities3.48%2.10%-1.38% * Weights as of 4/30/2010 Sector Summary
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary CS Sector Recap Decrease weight of Consumer Staples by 107 basis points Provides a 27 bp underweighting Defensive sector and lower returns in economic growth Allows more cyclical sectors to experience higher gains Sector Summary
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Sector Holdings Current Holdings SIM – 11.71% PepsiCo………………2.90% Wal-Mart Stores Inc…2.78% Philip Morris Int’l……..2.96% Procter & Gamble……3.07% * Weights as of 4/30/2010 Recommended Holdings SIM – 10.64% PepsiCo……………….2.23% Wal-Mart Stores Inc….2.78% Philip Morris Int’l……...2.96% Procter & Gamble…….2.67% Sector Summary
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Target Prices 10/4/20158 CompanyCurrent PriceTarget PriceDividendUpside Potential Philip Morris$46.25$574.9%28.1% Procter & Gamble$63.38$723.1%16.7% Wal-Mart$52.73$622.3%17.6% PepsiCo$66.75$742.7%13.6% Prices as of 5/13/2010 Sector Summary
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Target Prices of Sector Stocks in S&P Sector Summary
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Company Information
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Philip Morris - Hold Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is the leading international tobacco company. Spin-off from Altria(MO) in 2008. PM owns seven of the world’s top 15 brands Brand portfolio includes Marlboro, the number one cigarette brand worldwide. Products sold in approximately 160 countries. As of 2008, the company held an estimated 15.6% share of the total international cigarette market outside of the U.S. Company Comparison
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PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Wal-Mart Stores - Hold Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates various formats of retail stores and restaurants, including combination discount and grocery stores, supercenters, Sams Clubs, hypermarkets, cash-n- carry stores, department stores, and general merchandise stores Attractive Valuation Big move to online – sales, ad campaign etc. Improved merchandising capabilities, capital efficiency, inventory management Very non-cyclical Company Comparison
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PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary PepsiCo PepsiCo, Inc., founded in 1898, manufactures, markets, and sells numerous foods, snacks, and carbonated and non- carbonated beverages worldwide. Market capitalization of $106.55 billion. PepsiCo owns hundreds of brands around the world, but the most recognizable include: Company Comparison
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PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Procter & Gamble The Procter & Gamble Company (P&G), founded in 1837, engages in the manufacture and sale of consumer goods worldwide. The company operates in 3 global business units: Beauty Health and Well-Being Household Care Products are sold in over 180 countries worldwide Company Comparison
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PepsiCo Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary EPS is expected to increase, but remain significantly lower than before. EPS Growth % PepsiCo Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary ROE has been on a slight upward trend, but is expected to decrease. ROE Relative to S&P 500 PepsiCo Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary EBITDA Margin is expected to decrease. EBITDA Relative to S&P 500 PepsiCo Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Net profit margin is lower than Coca-Cola’s. Profit Margin Relative to KO PepsiCo Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Cash Flow per share PepsiCo Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Technical Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Discounted Cash Flow PepsiCo Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Sensitivity Analysis PepsiCo Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Target Price PepsiCo Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary PepsiCo Recommendation Benefits Global leadership in the snack business – Expand snack business in developing and emerging markets Taking advantage of the coincidence of consumption in snacks and beverages Purchase of PBG and PAS bottlers Focus on health and wellness – Expand the “Good for You” portfolio – Continue to make core snacks healthier through innovations in heart-healthy oil, sodium reduction and the additions of whole grains, nuts and seeds. Risks Failure to realize US bottler integration/synergies Currency Volatility – 48% of PepsiCo revenue is from operations outside the US. Largest operations are in North America (US, Canada, Mexico) and UK Recommendation: Sell 67 bps Current Price: 66.75 Target Price: 74.00 Implied Upside: 13.6% PepsiCo Analysis
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Procter & Gamble Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary EPS growth is expected to remain negative. EPS Growth % P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary ROE is at low levels of the decade. ROE % P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary EBITDA margin is below JNJ. EBITA Margin Relative to JNJ P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Net Profit Margin has low growth rate and is expected to remain so. Net Profit Margin % P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Technical Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Absolute Valuation P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Relative Valuation to S&P 500 P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Relative Valuation to Industry P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary 72.162 Price Target P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Discounted Cash Flow Model P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Sensitivity Analysis P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Procter & Gamble Recommendation Recommendation: Sell 40 bps Current Price: $63.38 Target Price: $72.00 Ratios $72.16 DCF $71.97 Implied Upside: 13.6% Dividend yield: 3.1% Implied Upside w/ Dividend: 16.7% P&G Analysis
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary P&G Analysis Benefits International initiative Product Expansion Product leadership Increased Advertising Very defensive Consistent dividends Procter & Gamble Risks and Benefits Risks Currency Volatility Pampers Lawsuit Changes in consumer spending Lower upside relative to other consumer staple companies
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Recommendations
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Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Stock Recommendation Sell 107 bp Sell 67 bp of Pepsi Sell 40 bp of Procter & Gamble Limited potential upside in both stocks Hold Wal-Mart and Philip Morris due to high upside Sale of 107 bp in our sector will allow other sectors to utilize it to gain better returns for the portfolio Risks Sale of 107 bp will leave the portfolio less defensive should the economy decline again Recomm- endations
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