1. Fire Emissions from 30,000’ – Regional Haze Planning Needs and Level(s) of Effort Tom Moore & Lee Alter Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meeting Tucson, AZ – December 10, 2003

2. Fire Emissions from 30,000’ 4 subject areas today -  Intercontinental Transport  Historic Patterns: Fire Activity Data for R x, Ag, & W x  Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods  Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

3. Intercontinental Transport http://wrapair.org/forums/dejf/documents/2002JD002204.pdf JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 107, NO. D24 Asian aerosols in North America: Frequency and concentration of fine dust Richard A. VanCuren Research Division, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, California, USA Thomas A. Cahill DELTA Group, Department of Applied Science, University of California, Davis, California, USA Received 14 February 2002; revised 27 April 2002; accepted 2 June 2002; published 28 December 2002.

4. Intercontinental Transport

9. http://www.epa.gov/air/airtrends/asian_dust4.pdf

10. Intercontinental Transport

15. http://www.awma.org/em/pdfs/2003/12/wilcox.pdf

16. Intercontinental Transport

19. http://www.awma.org/em/pdfs/2003/12/ramanathan.pdf

22. Intercontinental Transport

23. Historic Patterns: Fire Activity Data for R x & W x http://www.nifc.gov/news/sitreprt.pdf National Interagency Fire Center website

24. 2003

26. Historic Patterns: Fire Activity Data for R x & W x Number of Fires (2002 final)88,458 10-year Average (1992-2001)103,112 Acres Burned (2002 final)* 6,937,584 10-year Average (1992-2001)4,215,089

27. Historic Patterns: Fire Activity Data for R x & W x Number of Fires (2001) 84.079 10-year Average (1991-2000)106,400 Acres Burned (2001) 3,570,911 10-year Average (1991-2000)4,083,347

28. Historic Patterns: Fire Activity Data for R x & W x Number of Fires (2000)122,827 10-year Average (1990-1999)106,393 Acres Burned (2000)8,422,237 10-year Average (1990-1999)3,786,411

29. Historic Patterns: Fire Activity Data for R x & W x

30. YearFiresAcres 1990122,0435,454,773 1991116,9411,502,665 1992103,9461,812,219 199397,0302,309,418 1994114,0664,727,272 1995130,0192,316,595 1996115,1666,701,842 199789,5173,662,357 199881,0432,329,709 199993,7025,661,976 10-Year Average106,3473,647,883 Total Fires and Acres Reported to NIFC as of December 30, 1999

31. Historic Patterns: Fire Activity Data for R x & W x Prescribed Fires and Acres Reported to NIFC as of December 30, 1999 Geographic AreaNumber of FiresNumber of Acres Treated Alaska1544,289 Northwest1,056143,683 California64182,554 Northern Rockies901102,844 Great Basin - East267149,550 Great Basin - West2611,266 Southwest642221,758 Rocky Mountain376124,366 Eastern Area21324,559 Southern Area1,800938,578 Total for United States5,9371,843,456

32. Emission Inventories for Wildfire, Prescribed Fire & Agricultural Burning Fire Emissions Joint Forum Western Regional Air Partnership Prepared for the Fire Emissions Joint Forum of the Western Regional Air Partnership June 7, 2002 – Denver, CO Prepared by Air Sciences Inc.

33. Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods 1996 Inventories 2018 Projections  WF & Rx: Actual activity data (acres or fuel burned)  Calculate emissions.  Plume characteristics  Rx: Predictive model (1995 FEP) provides 50km emissions  Ag: Typical activity data (residue burned per crop per county); calculate emissions.  Refine the data Realistic fire sizes Temporally Spatially Plume characteristics Reasonable? Representative?Accurate? Can quantify uncertainty.

34. Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods  Wildfire Activity data collected by ETT from ICS-209 (and others)  Prescribed Fire Collected by ETT from state sources augmented by 1202 for DOI (and others) 1996 Wildfire and Rx Fire – Activity Data ACTUAL Based on ACTUAL acres burned data

35. Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods

38. Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

48. Carbon Dating at Yosemite  Lower bound on anthro  Upper bound on biomass burning  Data from abnormally high OC days

49. Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/ogden/maps/ma p_products.html Interior West Forest Inventory & Analysis -- Map Products -- We are currently developing spatially explicit map products of several forest attributes for ecoregions in the Interior West. The maps are generated by modelling forest inventory variables as functions of satellite data along with digital topographic and geographic data.

50. Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas (http://erg.usgs.gov/isb/pubs/factsheets/fs10800.pdf)http://erg.usgs.gov/isb/pubs/factsheets/fs10800.pdf Data Classification System Key 11 Open Water 12 Perennial Ice/Snow 21 Low-Intensity Residential 22 High-Intensity Residential 23 Commercial/Industrial/Transportation 31 Bare Rock/Sand/Clay 32 Quarries/Strip Mines/Gravel Pits 33 Transitional 41 Deciduous Forest 42 Evergreen Forest 43 Mixed Forest 51 Shrubland 61 Orchards/Vineyards/Other 71 Grasslands/Herbaceous 81 Pasture/Hay 82 Row Crops 83 Small Grains 84 Fallow 85 Urban/Recreational Grasses 91 Woody Wetlands 92 Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands

51. Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas Select an ecoregion: Southern Rocky Mountain Steppe/Open Woodland/Coniferous forest/Alpine Meadow ProvinceSouthern Rocky Mountain Steppe/Open Woodland/Coniferous forest/Alpine Meadow Province - The Southern Rocky Mountain Steppe province is characterized by rugged glaciated mountains oriented north-south and east-west. The climate is influenced by westerly winds and elevation gradients ranging from 3,000 ft (900 m) to 14,000 ft (4,300 m). The vegetation is also influenced by wind and elevation along with latitude and slope exposure. In the upper, subalpine zone, Engelmann spruce coexists with subalpine fir. Below the subalpine zone, in the montane zone, ponderosa pine occurs on dry, exposed slopes and Douglas-fir occurs in more moist, sheltered areas. Aspen and lodgepole appear following fire in both the subalpine and montane zones but are gradually replaced by the original forest trees. The foothill (woodland) zone, below the montane zone is composed of dry rocky slopes with scrub oak and mountain-mahogany trees or ponderosa pine and pinyon-juniper forests, depending on slope exposure (Bailey 1980). Nevada-Utah Mountains Semi-Desert/Coniferous Forest/Alpine Meadow ProvinceNevada-Utah Mountains Semi-Desert/Coniferous Forest/Alpine Meadow Province - The Nevada- Utah Mountains Semi-Desert province is composed of linear mountains rising steeply from semiarid plains with altitudes ranging from 3,000 ft (900 m) to 13,000 ft (3,960 m). The climate varies with elevation but generally has a long drought season and a short humid season. The vegetation is again influenced by elevation with Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir at high elevation, subapine zones and Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine occurring in the Montane zones. Bristlecone pine also occurs in some of the supalpine zones, reaching almost 1,000 years of age. The foothill or woodland zone consists mainly of pinyon-juniper forests on lower mountain slopes merging with the sagebrush zone occuring just under the foothill zone and dominated by sagebrush species (Bailey 1980).

52. Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas Select an ecoregion: Northern Rocky Mountain Forest-Steppe-Coniferous Forest-Alpine Meadow ProvinceNorthern Rocky Mountain Forest-Steppe-Coniferous Forest-Alpine Meadow Province- The Northern Rocky Mountain province is characterized by high, rugged mountains reaching up to 9,000 ft (2,700 m). The climate includes severe winters with the average temperate of the coldest month below 32°F (0°C) and the average temperature of the warmest month below 72°F (22°C). The vegetation consists of two major types of mixed evergreen-deciduous forest predominates; Douglas-fir and cedar-hemlock-Douglas-fir forests. (Bailey 1980). Middle Rocky Mountain Steppe-Coniferous Forest-Alpine Meadow Province- The Middle Rocky Mountain province consists of deeply dissected granitic mountain ranges with elevations ranging from 3,000 to 7,000 ft (900 to 2,130 m). The climate is influenced by the Pacific Ocean, with mild temperatures and western winds. The vegetation is influenced by elevation with Douglas-fir dominant below the subalpine zone and grand fir occurring on west of the continental divide and lodgepole pine occurring in basins on the east of the divide. The lower slopes are characteristically sagebrush semidesert or steppe (Bailey 1980). Map Products Montana Ecoregions http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/ogden/maps/map_products.html

53. Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas Rocky Mountain Steppe/Open Woodland/Coniferous forest/Alpine Meadow Province Forest Attribute Maps Metadata Metadata Predicted forest cover PD F Predicted tree crown cover PD F Predicted tree basal area PD F Predicted stand age PD F Predicted trees per acre PD F Predicted quadratic mean diameter PD F

55. WRAP-up  Intercontinental and international transport very important and affect regional haze planning process  Wildfire most important of fire emissions categories  Lesser initial level of effort on R x and Ag fire  Likely subsequent focus on near-Class I area/subregional needs for R x and Ag fire  Need to think about development and applications of fire emissions data in the context of reasonable progress and uncontrollable versus controllable emissions