2. Structure of presentation 1.Introduction 2.The Core Network and its status Discussion 3.Investment programming Discussion 4.Analysis of sub-sectors Discussion

3. Project organisation

4. Previous projects Commission services paper: "Transport and Energy Infrastructure in South East Europe" (2001) Commission services paper: "Transport and Energy Infrastructure in South East Europe" (2001) TIRS study (2002) TIRS study (2002)

5. Pan-European corridors

6. Proposed core road network

7. Routes and corridors, roads

8. Propsed core rail network

9. Routes and corridors, railways

10. Proposed core seaports Seaports Rijeka Split Ploce Dubrovnik Bar Durres Vlore

11. Airports Tirana Tirana Sarajevo Sarajevo Zagreb Zagreb Skopje Skopje Belgrade Belgrade Banja Luka Banja Luka Pristina Pristina Podgorica Podgorica Dubrovnik Dubrovnik Nis Nis Split Split

12. Proposed core road network

13. Propsed core rail network

14. Road Geometry

15. Road condition

16. Present technical condition, railways

17. Ongoing initiatives Balkan Stability Pact Balkan Stability Pact Southeast European Co-operation Initiative (SECI) Southeast European Co-operation Initiative (SECI) EU CARDS programme EU CARDS programme World Bank Trade and Transport Facilitation in Southeast Europe Programme (TTFSE) World Bank Trade and Transport Facilitation in Southeast Europe Programme (TTFSE)

18. Road border crossings on Core Network and location of border crossings which are presently or potentially bottlenecks and are not already supported

19. Rail border crossings on core network and location of border crossings which are presently or potentially bottlenecks and are not already supported

20. Projected road traffic 2006, moderate economic growth scenario

21. Projected rail passenger traffic 2006, moderate economic growth scenario

22. Growth in passenger traffic 2001 - 2025 Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Macedonia Serbia and Montenegro Car Rail Air 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900%

23. Growth in freight traffic 2001 – 2025 Truck Rail Inland waterway Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Macedonia Serbia and Montenegro 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600%

24. The planning process

25. "European" standards Road:AGR 80 - 120 km/h 80 - 120 km/h min. 7m asphalt min. 7m asphalt Rail: AGC/AGTC Corridor X 160 km/h, double track Corridor X 160 km/h, double track other lines: basic modernisation (100-120 km/h) other lines: basic modernisation (100-120 km/h)

26. Long-term investment requirements: Roads: 4 Billion Euro Roads: 4 Billion Euro Railways: 12 Billion Euro Railways: 12 Billion Euro

27. Location of road investments

28. Proposed rail modernisation

29. Short term investment plan Recommended actions may be: studies (e.g. feasibility studies) studies (e.g. feasibility studies) design design construction construction All infrastructure projects on the Core Network for which action is recommended before end of 2004. Covers the period 2004 - 2009 Projects may be: ongoing ongoing committed committed new new

30. Project screening Two phases: Collection of project data in the region => project fiches Collection of project data in the region => project fiches Screening of projects = ranking with multi-criteria model Screening of projects = ranking with multi-criteria modelOutput: Projects ranked according to score Projects ranked according to score

31. Example of project fiche

32. Weights of criteria Criteria-weight Criterion I:Economic appraisal0.50 Criterion II:Financial viability0.20 Criterion III:Environmental effects0.05 Criterion IV:Functionality and coherency of the network0.15 Criterion V:Readiness of the Authority0.10

33. Example of output from screening model

34. Number of road and rail projects on the Core Network comprised by the quantitative screening AlbaniaBosnia and Herzegovina CroatiaSerbia and Montenegro FYRO Macedonia Total Highway 9127191158 Railway 171314843

35. Project costs by corridor/route 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Total investment cost (EUR million) Corridor Vb Corridor Vc Corridor VIII Corridor X Corridor Xb Corridor Xc Corridor Xd Route 1 Route 2a Route 2b Route 4Route 8Route 7Route 8 Route 10 Road projects Rail projects

36. Pre-feasibility studies - 19 Criteria for selection of projects: Above 70% of maximum score in screening process Above 70% of maximum score in screening process Up-to-date feasibility study is not available Up-to-date feasibility study is not available An initial assessment of the project is a precondition for further action An initial assessment of the project is a precondition for further action Approval or financing of the project is not secured Approval or financing of the project is not secured

37. Pre-feasibility studies - 19 Focus in pre-feasibility analyses: Project is compared with a realistic reference alternative Project is compared with a realistic reference alternative Change in investment, operating and maintenance costs of infrastructure Change in investment, operating and maintenance costs of infrastructure Change in travel time Change in travel time Change in operating costs of rolling stock/vehicles and equipment Change in operating costs of rolling stock/vehicles and equipment Change in traffic safety Change in traffic safety

38. Location of pre-feasibility studies - Road

39. Location of pre-feasibility studies - Rail

40. Basis for Short term Investment Plan General REBIS policy recommendations: Maintain present infrastructure - rather than constructing new links/increase capacity Maintain present infrastructure - rather than constructing new links/increase capacity Concentrate investments on most important regional connections Concentrate investments on most important regional connections Strike a balance between transport modes Strike a balance between transport modes National priorities are reflected Affordable investment level Reasonable distribution between countries Results of the screening and pre-feasibility analyses

41. Total investment costs broken down by project status (EUR million) DataCommitted projects Ongoing projects New projects Grand Total Investment cost8287912,0743,693 Percentage distribution of investment costs 22%21%56%100% Number of projects 223179132

42. Location of ongoing, committed and new road and airport projects

43. Location of ongoing, committed and new railway and ports projects

44. Short Term Investment Plan implications Timing of investment costs 2004-2009 Timing of investment costs 2004-2009 Investments by corridor and route Investments by corridor and route Investments by project status and transport mode Investments by project status and transport mode Investments by country Investments by country

45. Investment costs broken down by project status phased over the implementation period (EUR million) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Annual investment level (EUR million) New projects Ongoing projects Committed projects

46. Investment costs by transport mode and scope for all projects (EUR million) Airport Border Cros- sing I. Water- ways Multi- modal Rail Road Sea port Construction Provision of equipment Rehabilitation/reconstruction Upgrading 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

47. Investment costs by transport mode and scope for all "New projects" (EUR million) Construction Provision of equipment Rehabilitation/reconstruction Upgrading Airport Border crossing Multi- modal Rail Road Sea port 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

48. Roads and Rail - phased investment costs broken down by project status (EUR million) Roads Rail 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Million Eur 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Million Eur New projects Ongoing projects Committed projects

49. Investment costs and GDP Estimated GDP Total GDPAssumed real growth in period Estimated investment costs (mill. EUR) (2003 -prices) Investment/ GDP Year20032004-2009 UnitBn EURBn EUR (2003 prices)Real growth (%)Bn EUR (2003 prices)% of BNP Albania5.540.945%5551.4% Bosnia6.149.228%5311.1% Croatia25.3206.427%9500.5% Kosovo*1.714.733%1060.7% Macedonia3.839.326%2920.7% Serbia & Montenegro12.3108.132%1,2581.2% Source: The GDP figures are estimated based on the World Bank's GDP figures for 2001 and projected based on real growth rates between 3.7% and 6.5% per year. The figure for Kosovo is estimated by IMF who assess the GDP to be 3 bn Deutsche Mark corresponding to around 1.5 bn EUR in year 2000.

50. Long Term Investment Programming Investment planning is an on-going and continues process Investment planning is an on-going and continues process New projects need to be identified and included in the planning process immediately after 2004 New projects need to be identified and included in the planning process immediately after 2004 A starting point is REBIS identified projects not included in the Short Term Investment Plan A starting point is REBIS identified projects not included in the Short Term Investment Plan A regional monitoring mechanism with access to technical back-up is a corner stone for a coherent development of infrastructure of regional importance A regional monitoring mechanism with access to technical back-up is a corner stone for a coherent development of infrastructure of regional importance

51. Long term challenges and requirements Roads: Major investments in road capacity only after 2010 Major investments in road capacity only after 2010 STIP includes only about 50% of estimated investment requirements 2004-2015 STIP includes only about 50% of estimated investment requirements 2004-2015

52. Long term challenges and requirements Rail: Large-scale upgrading of infrastructure to AGC/AGTC standards is not recommended in the first few years, where focus should be on business development Large-scale upgrading of infrastructure to AGC/AGTC standards is not recommended in the first few years, where focus should be on business development Modernisation should be considered when rehabilitation of existing lines is planned Modernisation should be considered when rehabilitation of existing lines is planned STIP includes only about 10% of estimated costs of upgrading to European standard 2004 -2015 STIP includes only about 10% of estimated costs of upgrading to European standard 2004 -2015

53. Long term challenges and requirements Ports and airports: Long term requirements are difficult to assess in a future competitive environment where user charging will be an important source of financing Long term requirements are difficult to assess in a future competitive environment where user charging will be an important source of financingIWW: Major investments are needed, especially in the Danube. Type and level will be determined in upcoming studies Major investments are needed, especially in the Danube. Type and level will be determined in upcoming studies

54. Management information systems Infrastructure is an asset which: needs to be maintained and improved needs to be maintained and improved to ensure maximum value for money of the infrastructure to ensure maximum value for money of the infrastructure needs to build on up-to-date information on needs to build on up-to-date information on conditions and usage conditions and usage Efficient management consists of a managed series of works and activities which:

55. Road management information systems Status: In most countries dataexists, but often in separate, paper based systems, which are not always updated regularly In most countries dataexists, but often in separate, paper based systems, which are not always updated regularly Needs: Extension of traffic counting to the entire network Extension of traffic counting to the entire network Updating of data on structures Updating of data on structures Improved bridge management systems Improved bridge management systems Computerisation of data before unified systems are developed Computerisation of data before unified systems are developed Improved co-operation between police and road authorities to obtain better data on accidents in order to improve road safety Improved co-operation between police and road authorities to obtain better data on accidents in order to improve road safety

56. Rail management information systems Status: Inventories on conditions of structures and traffic are mainly paper based Inventories on conditions of structures and traffic are mainly paper based Needs: Development of computerised systems, which will facilitate assessment of needs in a more efficient way Development of computerised systems, which will facilitate assessment of needs in a more efficient way

57. Port management information systems Status: Inventories on conditions of structures are mainly paper based, whereas traffic data more often is recorded in a computerised system Inventories on conditions of structures are mainly paper based, whereas traffic data more often is recorded in a computerised system Needs: Development of computerised systems, which will facilitate assessment of needs in a more efficient way Development of computerised systems, which will facilitate assessment of needs in a more efficient way

58. Airport management information systems Status: There are generally no management information systems in the airports. There are generally no management information systems in the airports. Data are kept in a mix of paper and computerised systems; traffic data is most often recorded in computerised systems Data are kept in a mix of paper and computerised systems; traffic data is most often recorded in computerised systems Needs: Development of computerised systems, which will facilitate assessment of needs in a more efficient way Development of computerised systems, which will facilitate assessment of needs in a more efficient way

59. Inland waterway management information systems Status: Croatia and Serbia have computerised their data to some extent Croatia and Serbia have computerised their data to some extent Needs: Especially Serbia needs to develop computerised systems and to update date on traffic and conditions, which will facilitate assessment of needs in a more efficient way Especially Serbia needs to develop computerised systems and to update date on traffic and conditions, which will facilitate assessment of needs in a more efficient way