1. Public Opinion Chapter 16

2. Section 1: What is public opinion? What a large group of people feel about an issue Role of Public Opinion in Politics Because politicians rely on votes, they take public opinion very seriously. What influences your opinion on an issue? Media: where we get most information on all matters political or otherwise Ideology: you basic political beliefs Liberal, conservative, moderate Political socialization: the process through which your political ideology develops. Family, income, level of schooling, age, religion, gender, race, geographical region you are from…

3. Section 2: Polling Polls: surveys that tell us how the public feel about an issue History of polling: polling on a large scale dates back to the 1930s Gallup poll- a scientific method of polling targeting various groups of voters and asking them specific questions

4. Section 2 Types of polls In person interview Telephone interview Mail questionnaires Exit poll : a random selection of voters are asked who they voted for when leaving the voting location

5. Section 2 Factors that affect the results of polls Sampling- to get accurate results from a poll the people who will participate must be chosen at random, more accurate polls tend to include samples over 1,000 Question wording Question order Timing – as new developments occur people’s opinions change

6. Polling: Samples Random sample of 1547 people; telephone poll President Obama Job Approval 12/27-29 Gallup Poll : 47% approve 45% disapprove Example of a poll not using a random sample: Which of these albums are you most likely to buy? Cher and Christina Aguilera: Burlesque soundtrack 27% Jessica Simpson: Happy Christmas 18% Kanye West: My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy 26% Ke$ha: Cannibal 12% Nicki Minaj: Pink Friday 17% *Entertainment Weekly Website, not a random sample Why might there results not reflect actual album sales?

7. Section 2: Question wording Leading questions: “Don’t you agree that teachers should be paid more money than they currently earn?” “Most doctors believe that exercise is good for you. Do you agree?” “Voting is essential to democracy. Do you vote?”

8. Section 2: Question wording, confusing! 1992 Roper poll for the American Jewish Committee “Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?” 22% said it seemed possible the Holocaust never occurred and another 12% said they do not know Roper organization was embarrassed by the poorly worded question and suspected it may have contributed to such shocking results. It re-ran the survey with a different question “Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened, or do you feel certain that it happened?” 1% said it seemed possible that the Holocaust had never occurred Gallup also tested the differences in question wordings and found similar results

9. Question Order Effects Prior questions in a survey may prime (encourage) people to answer a certain question a certain way by the tone and wording of previous questions. 1. Does it bother you that Joe Smith voted to increase property taxes? 2. Do you approve of the job Joe Smith is doing?

10. Question Order Effects 1980 Harris poll for the Democratic presidential primary Asked at the beginning of the interview and again near the end whether they intended to vote for President Jimmy Carter or Senator Edward Kennedy In between included questions on inflation and the economy, American hostages in Iran, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, all areas where Carter was weak. Support for Carter at the end of the poll was sharply lower than support at the beginning. It is likely that the intervening questions primed people to answer the second question about who they intended to vote for based on those concerns.