1. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 1 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Stéphane Isoard Scenarios and Future Analysis Workshop on inventories and projections of GHG and NH3 emissions from agriculture in Central and Eastern Europe Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), DG JRC, Ispra 23-24 June 2005 EEA agricultural outlooks

2. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 2 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Rationales for EEAs agricultural outlooks EEA addresses policy options and long-term environmental impacts Synergies with the CAFE programme (nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), ammonia (NH3), RAINS) Projections up to 2010 should incorporate recent CAP mid- term review / reform Supplement and take stock of the existing projections (EC-DG AGRI, FAO, FAPRI, IFPRI) Projections beyond 2010 based on various global or regional studies, overlooking the specificities of the EU; inconsistencies identified (e.g. macroeconomic assumptions, modelling frameworks and the granularity of results) -> There was a need for long-term projections at EU level

3. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 3 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Approach to agriculture outlooks Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM baseline; no climate change assumptions; assumptions based on CAPRI model and CAP Models: CAPSIM (partial equilibrium model, economic accounts) Scope and timeframe: most of the EEA 31 member countries (1 st time systematic and consistent; results at national level), to 2025. Output: cropping patterns (22 per country), livestock patterns (11 animal products per country), agricultural nutrient balances for N, P, K, GHGs linked to fertilizers and livestock Alternative scenarios: Liberalisation of animal product markets (Extended CAP reform), Best practices for fertiliser handling, A stronger EURO

4. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 4 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Key messages Harvested land is expected to continue to be used mainly for fodder and the production of cereals (80% of the total area). Yields increase is expected to be the main source of production growth in Europe over the next 20 years. Arable land (2020/2001) - Use of arable land (2020) - Sources of crop growth (2020/2001)

5. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 5 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Key messages The shift in demand from beef to poultry is expected to continue. + 20% in poultry demand (to 12.2 millions tonnes by 2020) is expected, at the expense mainly of beef (-6% to 6.5 millions tonnes) Pork meat demand expected to increase slightly to 20.2 millions t in 2020, still representing about 50% of the EU market. The relative share of the EU-15 and New-8 in the EU meat market in 2020 are expected to stay fairly stable, around 87% and 13% respectively. These expected developments reflect ongoing changes in diets.

6. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 6 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Key messages Mineral fertiliser use is expected to increase considerably in the new Member States, although it remains lower than in the EU-15 in absolute terms; this may lead to increases in associated environmental pressures. EU-23 nutrient surpluses are expected to be moderately reduced in 2020. Environmental pressures (2020/2001) - Use of fertilisers - Nutrient balances, ammonia losses and GHG emissions

7. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 7 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Key messages Best practices for fertiliser handling could reduce significantly the environmental pressures. In 2020, N, P, K surpluses reduced compared with the baseline scenario by 25%, 70%, and 57% respectively. Gaseous emissions also reduced (ammonia losses by 51%, nitrous oxide naturally to a lesser extent (12%), while methane emissions are left unchanged due to the definition of the scenario). The use of organic fertilisers increases sharply (between 60% and 80%) in substitution of mineral fertilisers (reduction of 30% to 60%).

8. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 8 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook The European Environment Outlook Outlooks developed for various environmental themes GHG emissions and climate change Air quality (CAFE) Water stress Water quality Key driving forces (socio/technico/economic, DG TREN) Demography Economy activity Technological and sectoral developments Consumption patterns Energy and transport Agriculture Waste and material flows Common set of assumptions for driving forces to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis

9. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 9 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Integrated analysis European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to meet short-term targets if all additional policies and measures planned so far are implemented European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exceed long-term targets set to prevent harmful climate change

10. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 10 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Integrated analysis Air pollution and its impacts on health and ecosystems are expected to decline significantly Excess of nitrogen deposition (2000 and 2030 for the MFR scenario) Emissions of air pollutants (Baseline and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenarios, index 100 in 2000)

11. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 11 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Integrated analysis The recent enlargement of the European Union is expected to provide both opportunities for and threats to the environment Use of fertilisers, Nutrient balances, ammonia losses and GHG emissions (2020/2001)

12. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 12 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Integrated analysis The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive is expected to reduce significantly the overall discharge of nutrients from point sources Discharges of nitrogen and phosphorous from wastewater treatment plants

13. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 13 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Gaps in the analysis Spatial analysis (forthcoming CAPRI-DYNASPAT project, Bonn University & JRC-IES) Comprehensive uncertainty analysis Macro-economic implications/feedbacks of env. policies Diffuse sources and biodiversity impacts

14. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 14 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Considerations for developing projections Common misunderstanding with regard to models: (1) a complete model is necessary; (2) I believe the results of the model (outputs = inputs) Since most modelling tools are extremely time-consuming and financially demanding (1-5 million EUROS for a full model?) … Some guidelines for projections, whether these are based on simple or complex models, or a combination of experts and some modelling tools… 1. Methodology make it clear and transparent. Iterations – Interactions between stakeholders, responsible authorities and modellers are key. Simple methodologies are respectable! Real value of models = take care of complex systems + get a sense of the system dynamics, i.e. marginal assessment.

15. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 15 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Considerations for developing scenarios 2. Inputs and outputs formally validated in a series of iterations – Checking on key relationships (spatial, technical, economical - FAO) Consistency with socio-economic context (e.g. pop., GDP, policies) – Inventories are about known tech. parameters, projections are about unknown socio-economic and structural factors affecting the agriculture sector. 3. Take stock of former projections (e.g. CAPSIM) 4. Assess uncertainty: scenario developments (focus on main uncertainties) 5. Stakeholders consultation (not only experts) - at the outset of the exercise (driving forces), during the project (obvious) and at the end (comparability, dissemination) 6. Dissemination (e.g. CDs – XML show)

16. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 16 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO TAKE A CD WITH YOU.

17. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 17 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook The concept Highlight the interactions between and implications of sectoral developments and environmental issues. Link to past and ongoing Commission exercises when appropriate. Exploring sustainability of baseline projections (2020-2030), alternative scenarios and variants (up to 2100). Provide a coherent quantitative assessment as feasible, supplemented by qualitative analyses where needed. Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.

18. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 18 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Integrated quantitative assessment Water stress and water quality outlooks Models WaterGAP (water use and availability), A model on nutrients from UWWT plants Agriculture outlooks Models CAPSIM (sectoral model) Climate change and air pollution outlooks Models PRIMES (energy & transport) POLES (energy & transport) TIMER/FAIR (GHGs emissions) RAINS (air pollution) IMAGE (climate change) Euromove (ecosystem composition) Waste and material flows outlooks Models A macro-econometric waste & material flows model Results also used as input to other Technical Reports 'Household Consumption' EEA Technical Report 'Sustainable use of natural resources' EEA Technical Report 'Halting the loss of biodiversity' EEA Technical Report 'Environmental aspects of enlargement' Advisory Group 'Europes Environment & the Global Dimension' Multimedia 'Environment & health' EEA Technical Report 'Climate change & sustainable energy' EEA Technical Report State of the Environment and Outlook report 2005 'European Environment Outlook' EEA Technical Report

19. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 19 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook QA, consultation and dissemination QA and consultation processes Synergies with the EC using many of the same modelling tools Advisory Group Contributors and EEA Internal Reviews European Commission and a NFPs/NRCs Consultation SMT review MB review (ongoing) Dissemination of results EEA report + web posting Oral and poster presentations in conferences (articles) Paper for academic journals Outlooks used in related projects (e.g. EC-JRC)

20. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 20 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Key messages The more fragmented European society is expected to increase some environmental pressures Population development 1990-2030

21. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 21 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Key messages European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to meet short-term targets if all additional policies and measures planned so far are implemented European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exceed long-term targets set to prevent harmful climate change

22. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 22 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Approach to air and climate change outlooks Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline alternative SEP scenario and scenario variants Models: transport & energy: PRIMES, POLES, (TREMOVE, SCENES) emissions: TIMER, FAIR air & climate change: RAINS, IMAGE Output: emissions (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFC, PFC, SF 6, SO 2,PM 10, …) climate change (temperature, precipitation) impacts (ecosystem composition, growing season)

23. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 23 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Approach to agriculture outlooks Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline no climate change assumptions fertilizer consumption calibrated to match EFMA projections additional assumptions based on CAPRI model and CAP Models: CAPSIM (partial equilibrium model, economic accounts) Output: cropping patterns (22 per country) livestock patterns (11 animal products per country) agricultural nutrient balances for N, P, K greenhouse gas emissions linked to fertilizers and livestock

24. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 24 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Approach to waste outlooks Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline assumptions Models: macroeconomic model developed by EEA ETC Waste & Material Flows Output: waste: municipal, industrial, C&D, packaging, paper, glass material flows: minerals, biomass extraction and fossil fuels

25. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 25 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Approach to water outlooks Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline climate change scenarios from IMAGE and PRIMES models additional structural & technological change assumptions Models: WaterGAP (integrated water quantity model) simple model on urban water treatment plants Output: water stress, water availability, water use (by domestic, electricity, industry, agriculture sectors) - per 0.5° grid waste water from households, waste water treatment, nutrient discharges from treatment plants

26. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 26 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Alternative scenarios and variants Air and climate change: Air: Maximum Feasible Reductions CC: Sustainable Emission Pathway, low economic growth, accelerated diffusion of renewables, accelerated diffusion and decommissioning of nuclear Agriculture: Liberalisation of animal product markets (Extended CAP reform), Best practices for fertiliser handling, A stronger EURO Waste and material flows: Low economic growth, sustainable emission pathway (for fossil fuels only), Landfill Directive (biodegradable waste) Water stress: Sustainable emission pathway, non-convergence of per capita water use in the New-10

27. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 27 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook EEAs environmental scenarios portal Web Portal EEA Reports Links to institutions networks studies Resources News Glossary Bibliography http://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org