1. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand

2. Outline: Background Objective & Scope of study Study sites Method Finding (preliminary) Impact of climate change on rice production Rain-fed farmer vulnerability analysis Remarks: Surveyed data still need to be validated and verified Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed Adaptation options is to be further evaluated Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change

3. Background Part of AIACC AS07 Regional Study: Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change Joint research effort by Suppakorn Chinvanno 1 Boontium Lersupavithnapa 2 Somkith Boulidam 3 Thavone Inthavong 4 Chitnucha Budhaboon 5 1 Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand 2 Faculty of Agriculture, Ubonratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand 3 Faculty of Social Science, National University of Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR 4 National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute, Lao PDR 5 Rice Research Center, Thailand Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change

4. Climate Variability Climate Change Scenario Changes in yield of rice production Coping capacity Vulnerability Sustainable livelihood sufficient Adaptation yes no new expand Changes in yield of rice production scenarios Objectives: Pilot study to identify & characterize vulnerability & adaptation to climate change impact of rain-fed farmer and build regional capacity & network of researchers Who will vulnerable? How? How did they response to the past climate variability? Can this cope with future change? If not, what to do about future? Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Scope:

5. Study Sites: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Thailand: Ubonratchathani Province, covering 18 villages in 2 districts and devided into: Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to commercial rice – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution Lao PDR: Savannakhet Province, covering 4 villages in Songkhone District

6. Finding: Preliminary result Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Survey data still need to be validated and verified Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed Adaptation options is to be further evaluated

7. Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Simulated yield is done using 5 years climate condition under each CO2 scenarios and average the results Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR

8. Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Simulated rice yield (ton/ha) Climate scenarioMinMaxAve% change from baseline year 1xCO2919.65974.62497.4 1.5xCO2866.25470.02355.0-5.7% 2xCO21021.85877.42493.3-0.2% Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR

9. Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Simulated rice yields under different climate scenarios in 3 regions in Thailand Selected climate scenarios: by annual rainfall Dry YearMedian YearWet Year YieldSD% change from baseline year YieldSD% change from baseline year YieldSD% change from baseline year kg ha -1 Northern Thailand:1.0CO 2 2685537 2340399 2781638 Chiang Rai Province1.5CO 2 28344805.55%267848014.44%2700574-2.91% 2.0CO 2 2553875-4.92%3402110445.38%324897516.79% North Eastern Thailand: 1.0CO 2 2544557 2459591 26351083 Sakonnakorn Province 1.5CO 2 26448873.93%2257617-8.21%2355842-10.63% 2.0CO 2 261511372.79%2771140012.69%281213846.72% Central Thailand:1.0CO 2 2421732 2481743 2456720 Sakaeo Province1.5CO 2 26576239.75%26336716.13%2360681-3.91% 2.0CO 2 25278234.38%287879616.00%25168032.44%

10. Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Averaged simulated rice yields of each decade under three climate scenarios: Sakonnakorn Province, North-eastern Thailand

11. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Stakeholders engagement Engaging Local Community: Target social group – Rain-fed farmer community Conduct on-farm interview & focus group discussion with local farmer communities Thailand: North-eastern region - Ubonratchathani province (covering 600 households in 18 villages in Det-udom and Najaluay Districts) Lao PDR: Central region - Savannakhet province (covering 160 households in 4 villages in Songkhone district) Engaging Policy Maker: Series of meeting & workshop

12. Defining rain-fed farmer with risk to climate impact – potential vulnerable group: Multi-criteria analysis Coping Capacity Livelihood dependency on rice production Household Economic Condition 1. Good / sustained 2. Bad / not sustained 3. High 4. Low 5. High6. Low Potential Vulnerable Group 2+4+52+3+52+4+6 Potential Non-Vulnerable Group 1+3+61+4+51+3+5 1+4+62+3+6 Farmer community Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Identifying vulnerable group

13. NoCriteria / IndicatorDescriptionValueWeightRange Criteria I: Household economic condition 1Sufficient household productivity Total annual household productivity value / Total annual household consumption value >= 1.5 = 1 <1.5 -1= 2 <1 = 3 22 - 6 2Surplus household productivity Percentage of annual household surplus productivity value / Total household consumption >= 50% = 1 <50-20%= 2 <20% = 3 22 - 6 3Self-sufficient rice consumption Total annual rice production / Total annual rice consumption >= 1 = 1 <1 = 2 11 - 2 4Land ownershipOwn or rent farm land for farmingYes = 1 No = 2 11 - 2 5Sufficient productivity from non climate sensitive source to guarantee food security (Total livestock + Off-farm revenue) / Total food consumption >= 1= 1 <1-0.5 = 2 <0.5 = 3 11 - 3 Criteria II: Rice production dependency 6Household sustained livelihood without rice production Total other productivity value / Total household consumption *100 >70 % = 1 <70–50%= 2 <50% =3 33 - 9 7Level of food security from nature production Total value of food from natural source / Total food consumption *100 >70 % = 1 <70–50%= 2 <50% = 3 33 - 9 Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate climate risk – Lao PDR

14. NoCriteria / IndicatorDescriptionValueWeightRange Criteria III: Coping capacity 8Capacity of saving to support household livelihood Total household saving (cash + rice in the store + livestock) / Total household consumption *100 >30 % = 1 <30-10% = 2 <10% = 3 22 - 6 9External financial support mechanism Accessible to external loan to support climate impact Adequate = 1 Partial= 2 None or barely = 3 11 - 3 10Capacity to maintain livelihood with total lost rice production (Total household saving + Alternate & extra income + cash convertible product e,g, livestock) / (Household consumption 5 months + total cost of rice production) >=1 = 1 <1 – 0.5= 2 <0.5 = 3 22 - 6 11Capacity of natural product to maintain food security Total nature product / Total food consumption *100 >=70 % = 1 <70-30 %= 2 < 30% = 3 11 - 3 Total possible Range Scoring = 19 – 55 Low climate risk group = 19 – 31 Moderate climate risk group = >31 – 43 High climate risk group = >43 – 55 Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate climate risk – Lao PDR

15. Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Current SituationWith Climate Impact Stress Criteria / ScoreRangeLowModerateHighLowModerateHigh Total Vulnerability Score19 - 5519 - 31>31 - 43>43 - 5519 - 31>31 - 43>43 - 55 Average Score 26.437.246.926.536.547.0 Household Economic Condition7 - 199.113.517.09.313.717.6 Livelihood Dependency on Rice6 - 187.010.114.47.09.514.1 Coping Capacity6 - 1810.413.615.510.213.215.3 Number of Households162 1054510984913 Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 15% Household vulnerable to climate impact = 45 households (28% of total survey) Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer

16. Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Current SituationWith Climate Impact Stress Criteria / ScoreRangeLowModerateHighLowModerateHigh Total Vulnerability Score19 - 5519 - 31>31 - 43>43 - 5519 - 31>31 - 43>43 - 55 Average Score 26.437.246.926.635.947.1 Household Economic Condition7 - 199.113.517.09.714.117.9 Livelihood Dependency on Rice6 - 187.010.114.46.99.013.6 Coping Capacity6 - 1810.413.615.510.012.815.5 Number of Households162 1054510846115 Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 30% Household vulnerable to climate impact = 97 households (60% of total survey) Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer

17. Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change – Lao PDR (97 households or 60% of total survey) Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Comparison of socio-economic condition: Vulnerable VS Non-vulnerable groups Without climate stress With climate stress - lost of rice production by 30% Comparison Vulnerable to Non-vulnerable group Average from total households in each groupTotal surveyed population Non- Vulnerable Vulnerable Economic condition: Annual total productivity (per capita)$284$296$236-20.27% Annual consumption (per capita)$145$150$142-5.33% Annual total rice production (value - per capita)$81$61$54-11.48% Percentage of HH annual rice production to total productivity31.12%21.91%26.27%19.90% Percentage of annual HH on-farm production to total productivity 64.16%59.96%61.22%2.10% Percentage of HH annual off-farm production to total productivity 35.84%40.04%38.78%-3.15% HH cash saving (per capita)$39$49$39-20.41% HH other saving (includes cash convertible livestock) per capita$75$113$75-33.63% Farming system structure: HH farm size per capita0.47 0.46-2.13% HH rice productivity per land unit (ton/ha)1.661.71.63-4.12% HH cost production$36$45$30-33.33%

18. Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability: #1 – Seek for off-farm products e.g. products from natural source #2 – Implement alternate crop #3 – Increase buffer in coping capacity, e.g. community based rice bank, livestock Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Lao PDR Increase total productivity by increasing rice production by improving farming / crop management method and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing livestock and / or off-farm income.

19. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate climate risk – Thailand NoCriteria / IndicatorDescriptionValueWeightRange Criteria I: Household economic condition 1Sufficient household incomeTotal household income / Total household expenditure >= 1.5 = 1 <1.5 -1= 2 <1 = 3 11 - 3 2Surplus household incomePercentage of Total household income - Total household expenditure) / Total household expenditure => 10% = 1, >10% to <-10% = 2, =<-10% = 3 0.50.5 – 1.5 3Self-sustained rice consumption Total annual rice production / Total annual rice consumption >= 1 = 1 <1 = 2 11 - 2 4Land ownershipOwn or rent farm land for farming Yes = 1 No = 2 0.50.5 - 1 5Gross Profit & Loss from rice producing Percentage of (Total value of rice production - Total cost of production) / Total cost of production >= 150% = 1, 100% = 2, =<100% = 3 0.50.5 - 1.5 6Net Profit & Loss from rice producing (Total value of rice production - Cost of production) / (Total cost of production + Household fixed expenses 4 months) > 100% = 1, 100 to >50% = 2, =<50-0% = 3, =<0% = 4 0.50.5 - 2

20. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate climate risk – Thailand NoCriteria / IndicatorDescriptionValueWeightRange Criteria II: Rice production dependency 7Household sustains livelihood without rice production Total extra income / Total fixed expenses >=1 = 1, 0.5 = 2, =<0.5 = 3 22 - 6 8Level of livelihood dependency on rice production Percentage of (Total household expenditure - Extra income)/Total expenditure 70% = 3 22 - 6

21. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate climate risk – Thailand NoCriteria / IndicatorDescriptionValueWeightRange Criteria III: Coping capacity 9Capacity of alternate source of income to support household livelihood Total alternate income / (Total cost of rice production + Fixed household expenditure 4 month) >=1 = 1, <1 = 211 - 2 10External financial support mechanism Accessible to external loan to support climate impact Adequate = 1 Partial= 2 None or barely = 3 11 - 3 11Capacity of saving to support household livelihood (Cash saving + Total value of livestock) / (Total cost of rice production + Fixed household expenditure for one crop season: 4 month) >=1 = 1, <1 = 211 - 2 12Capacity to maintain livelihood with total lost rice production (Cash saving + Extra income + Cash convertible livestock + Loan allowance) / (Total household expenditure + Total cost of rice production) >1.5 = 1, 1.5 to >1 = 2, 1 to > 0.5 = 3, =<0.5 = 4 11 - 4 Total possible Range Scoring = 12 – 34 Low climate risk group = 12 – 19 ● Moderate climate risk group = >19 – 26 ● High climate risk group = >26 – 34

22. Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption Potential Vulnerable Group – Thailand Current SituationWith Climate Impact Stress Criteria / ScoreRangeLowModerateHighLowModerateHigh Total Vulnerability Score12 - 3412 - 19>19 - 26>26 - 3412 - 19>19 - 26>26 - 34 Average Score 1523.228.615.122.728.7 Household Economic Condition4 - 116.36.68.96.36.79.1 Livelihood Dependency on Rice4 - 124.510.512.04.310.112.0 Coping Capacity4 - 114.46.17.74.55.97.5 Number of Households 98342935322739 Climate risk group – Thailand when rice production reduced by 15% Household vulnerable to climate impact = 28 households (28.6%) Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer

23. Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change (28 households in Zone 1 Thailand) Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Comparison of socio-economic condition Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption Without climate stress With climate stress - lost of rice production by 15% Comparison Vulnerable to Non-vulnerable group Average from total households in each groupTotal surveyed population Non- Vulnerable Vulnerable Economic condition: HH income per capita$252$241$203-15.77% Income from rice per capita$142$119$1255.04% Income from rice to Total income (%)70.4965.7775.8315.30% Extra income to Total income (%)29.5134.3324.17-29.60% Total expenditure per capita$164$156$18518.59% Cash saving per capita$19$11$38245.45% Total Cash convertible livestock per capita$230$252$176-30.16% Debt per capita$190$207$148-28.50% Weighted interest rate (%)6.42 6.41-0.16% Farming system structure: Farm size per capita (Ha)1.01.20.85-29.17% Rice productivity per Ha (ton/ha)1.21.11.427.27% Gross profit from rice production per Ha (%)18814016517.86%

24. Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability: #1 – Seek for off-farm income – laboring in the city #2 – Increasing buffer in coping capacity – number of livestock #3 – Alternate crop Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Zone 1, Thailand Increase income per capita by increasing extra income, perhaps to be higher than non-vulnerable group in order to cope with higher expenditure and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing cash convertible livestock.

25. Climate risk group & their characteristics to be analyzed in the same method for the farmer in other zones ●Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to commercial rice – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution Concerned issue: Research gap Vulnerability profile not explained & multi-dimension aspect, e.g. multiple climate stress, temporal aspect of the climate impact – time of occurrence, consecutive year of extreme event, dynamic of society, etc. not yet systematically covered. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change

26. Summary: Climate change shows strong tendency to have impact on rain-fed rice agriculture system, particularly the increasing in magnitude and frequency of extreme climate variability. Rain-fed farmer’s livelihood would be affected from the damage or reduction in rice production due to climate impact. Engaging local stakeholders to get better understanding on current adaptation strategies & evaluate whether they would be sufficient to cope with future climate impact or not. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change

27. Project wrap-up plan: Planning adaptation strategy & evaluation Some concerned issues – site specific / limitation / feasibility The threshold of natural system condition to sufficiently support community in compensating the lost in rice production of farmer in Lao PDR Also degradation of the natural system as well as change in population to the threshold that such system may be overly exploited. Economic condition in the city in Thailand to support excess labor from upcountry, who try to seek for extra income to support their livelihood when income from rice production is not sufficient. Innovative new adaptation strategies to cope with the future vulnerability to climate change impact need to be developed

28. Thank You Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change