1. Employment, Income and Population Change in Curry County May 6, 2009 Mallory Rahe Extension Community Economist Oregon State University

2. 2 Positioned on the border of California, Curry is a relatively small county compared to its regional neighbors with a population of 21,523 and a total employment of 11,620. Total employment has been growing on average 2.3 percent a year since 1969, faster than the national average. The manufacturing industry’s dominance and decline has been balanced by growth in services and retail trade and an expansion of a tourism industry. Modest population growth has been driven by in migration. Although the county has low average wages, a majority of the county’s total personal income comes dividends, interest, rent and transfer payments which supports higher per capita incomes than counties with a similar economic base.

3. 3 Understanding Employment: Compared to its neighbors Curry Co. has a smaller employment base Curry county employment stood at 11,672 in 2005 and contracted slightly to 11,620 jobs in 2007

4. 4 Even as growth has recently slowed, the county continues adding jobs faster than the national average. The 1970’s brought the largest percentage increases in total employment. The county has seen less volatility in annual employment change since 1995. The county enjoyed annual increases in total jobs from 1986- 2006.

5. 5 35.5% Growth Avg 5.1% annual 20.8% Growth Avg 1.6% annual 17.2% Growth Avg 1.9% annual 11.0% Growth Avg 2.2% annual 1971-1978 1978-1991 1991-1999 2001- 2005 Understanding employment change during different business cycles: the following five slides use shift-share analysis to look at Curry County’s employment by industry 2005- 2007 0.4% decline Business cycles were chosen as the time periods between peak employment years in the county.

6. 6 – Government jobs- federal civilian positions and state and local government -added another 446 jobs to the county – Curry farm jobs were expanding as the national farm sector was employing fewer people. Together with strong employment growth in the Agricultural services, forestry, fishing, and related activities added an additional 396 jobs. Rapid growth from 1971-1978 Local industries added more jobs than the national average employment growth, manufacturing and construction were two exceptions Employment growth in Services and Retail trade accounted for 45 percent (842 of the 1,891) jobs that were added. The two industries grew 3 times and 2 times as fast as the national average respectively

7. 7 Growth slows in Curry County from 1978-1991 Local growth is driven solely by national growth, Curry had an unfavorable mix of employment- more jobs were held in industries that were declining nationally. Growth was further slowed as local industries added fewer jobs than the national averages – The county loses 585 manufacturing jobs, nationally the manufacturing sector is employing fewer people during this period, but employment falls faster locally – The service industry adds 994 jobs and increases its share of employment in the county from 14.7% to 23.6% – Construction jobs in the county nearly double, locally the industry grows over 4 times faster than the national average and now represents 7.2% of local employment – Farm employment also declines in the county as 95 farm jobs are lost during this period

8. 8 1991-1999 period of moderate growth Local growth is spurred by strong national growth, Curry had a favorable mix of employment- more jobs were held in growing industries than declining industries. Growth was slowed as local industries added fewer jobs than the national averages – Services, Retail Trade, and Agriculture service, Forestry and Fishing industries added the most jobs in the county – Retail trade, Services, Construction add fewer jobs at a slower pace than the national average in these industries – Manufacturing, Transportation and Public Utilities lose jobs locally while these industries added employment nationally – The county loses 117 Federal Civilian jobs

9. 9 2001-2005 produce 2.2 % annual employment growth rates Curry retains a favorable mix: Larger shares of employment are found in industries that are growing nationally ½ of the jobs that were added during this period as Curry’s industries grew faster than their respective national averages – Construction industry grows three times as fast as national average, this industry added 306 jobs, the most of any reported industry – Accommodation and Food Services added 175 jobs and grew at a rate almost twice the national average in this industry – Real Estate, Rental and Leasing industry grew slower than the national average but still added an additional 118 jobs locally

10. 10 2005-2007 slight decline in total employment Manufacturing and Other services add jobs while most industries reduce employment The three industries (construction; real estate, rentals, and leasing; accommodation and food services) that added the most jobs from 2001-2005 slowed during the next two years and did not meet the national average growth rates

11. 11 The job ratio has been increasing, as Curry county grows job creation has outpaced population increases Historically Curry has always had a lower job ration than the state or nation. Part of this difference reflects the county’s older population. The recent rise in the employment to population ratio represents growth in both full and part-time jobs alike.

12. 12 Understanding Population: Curry county in a period of stable population growth, slower than the state average Curry county’s population has at times grown faster than the state average. Since 1995 the county has been in a period of slower population growth. Population peaked at 22,082 persons in 2005.

13. Oregon State averaged 10.8% growth from 2000 to 2008 Curry County had a 1.8 % population growth due to people moving into the county. Like its immediate neighbor’s the county’s changing age structure resulted in more deaths than births. Map prepared by Mallory Rahe, Oregon State University Extension, data source US Census July 1, 2008 population estimates

14. 14 Understanding Income: Curry County has increased total personal income and per capita income over time, non-net earnings are important income sources Curry county’s total personal income base was $678,933 million (current dollars) in 2007. The county’s per capita income was $31,214 (current dollars) or 81 percent of the national average and 89 percent of the state average. The county has a low average wage, dividends, interest, rent and transfer payments support 32 % and 28% of total personal income. Real Total Personal Income in the county has increased 15.5 percent from 2000-2007. These increases have been similar to the statewide increases. Curry county’s percent of the statewide total personal income is 0.52% a number almost identical to the county’s share of the statewide total in 1969. Real Per Capita Income has increased 12.1% from 2000-2007, this growth has allowed Curry county to come 4.6 percentage points closer to reaching the statewide average.

15. 15 Proprietors earn 15% of all county earnings. Private industry contributes 78% of all county earnings 200120042007 Total Earnings (in thousands) $ 229,192 $ 270,028 $ 315,338 Proprietors' income15%14%15% Farm proprietors' income-8%3%7% Farm earnings0%2% Private earnings77% 78% Government and government enterprises23%21%20% Federal, civilian14%12%10% Military5%8% State government10%12%8% Local government70%68%73% Note: Proprietor’s income reflects business profit and includes adjustments for the depreciation of inventory valuation, capital consumption, and the wage and salary of the proprietor are also deducted. Farm proprietors’ income can be very volatile and showing negative income is not uncommon. Private earnings and farm earnings also include the respective amounts of proprietor earnings in each category. Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA, Table CA05N, Data for 2001 and 2005 use 2002 NAICS codes, 2007 data uses the 2007 updated NAICS.

16. 16 Contributions to private earnings by industry show the importance of manufacturing, retail trade, and construction Private earnings (in thousands) $177,136 $209,058$246,149 Forestry, fishing, related activities, and other Forestry and logging 5%3% Fishing, hunting, and trapping 3%4%5% Agriculture and forestry support activities Construction 11%12%11% Manufacturing 17%16%15% Durable goods manufacturing 17% 15% Wood product manufacturing 13% Wholesale trade 1% Retail trade 15%16%14% Transportation and warehousing 0%3%2% Information 2%1% Finance and insurance 2%3%4% Real estate and rental and leasing 4%3% Professional, scientific, and technical services 4% 6% Educational services 0% Health care and social assistance 8% Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1% Accommodation and food services 9% 8% Other services, except public administration 4%5% 2001 2004 2007 Note: Blanks reveal data suppression by Bureau of Economic Analysis to protect firm confidentiality Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA, Table CA05N. Data for 2001 and 2005 use 2002 NAICS codes, 2007 data uses the 2007 updated NAICS. Manufacturing contributes 15% to total private earnings despite only accounting for 7% of the county’s total employment. In 2001, wood product manufacturing represented 13% of all private earnings in the county, data suppression prevents understanding how this number has changed

17. 17 Additional Data Slides The following slides include additional data drawn from http://www.pnreap.org/Oregon/http://www.pnreap.org/Oregon/ Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Economic Analysis

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22. 22 ( in thousand dollars)200120052007% Change Total Earnings $ 229,192 $ 270,028 $ 315,33838% Proprietors' income $ 34,808 $ 38,129 $ 48,24739% Farm proprietors' income48%53%57%233% Farm earnings $ 157 $ 4,101 $ 7,0514391% Private earnings $ 177,136 $ 209,058 $ 246,14939% Government and government enterprises $ 51,899 $ 56,869 $ 62,13820% Federal, civilian14%12%10%-13% Military5%8% 88% State government10%12%8%-5% Local government70%68%73%25% Note: Proprietor’s income reflects business profit and includes adjustments for the depreciation of inventory valuation, capital consumption, and the wage and salary of the proprietor are also deducted. Farm proprietors’ income can be very volatile and showing negative income is not uncommon. Private earnings and farm earnings also include the respective amounts of proprietor earnings in each category. Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA, Table CA05N, Data for 2001 and 2005 use 2002 NAICS codes, 2007 data uses the 2007 updated NAICS.