1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Claudio Roveda and Riccardo Vecchiato Politecnico di Milano and Fondazione Rosselli Foresight in Corporate Organizations

2. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Agenda to set up a general framework of industry foresight in relation to the business environment of the firm; to describe some foresight models (domains, methodology, organizational process, outputs and outcomes in supporting the design of a coordinated multilevel and multiunit strategy) implemented in a sample of large international companies; to draw some general features of the industry foresight models from these cases and providing some guidelines regarding the implementation of industry foresight. Paper structure

3. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Defining the business environment The micro-environment Competitors Customer groups Suppliers Comple- mentary products Industry customers needs Industry technology Industry regulation

4. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Defining the business environment The macro-environment

5. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Focus the analysis on the general functions performed by the industry products in relation to its customers needs and wants. The cases of: – Daimler Chrysler: mobility industry; – Nokia: the information and communication industry; – Shell: the energy industry. Refer to consumer needs as the cornerstone of the analysis of the business environment of a firm, with the main aim of figuring out how they can evolve, how they can be widened and enriched. Consumers needs as the cornerstone of the analysis Defining the business environment

6. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Some models of industry foresight General classification of foresight activities Macro level Meso level Micro level Politics Economics Ecology Society Technology Long term Medium term Level of analyisis Domain Time horizon Source: F. Ruff, DaimlerChrysler Short term

7. Foresight in Corporate Organizations The Shell Model Some models of industry foresight Source: P. Cornelius, Shell

8. Foresight in Corporate Organizations The BASF Model Some models of industry foresight Source: K. Heinzelbecker, BASF

9. Foresight in Corporate Organizations foresight fosters the integration and coordination among the various organizational units; foresight promotes a shared understanding of the basic drivers of change affecting the whole business; foresight is appropriate when the identification of emerging trends able to affect the sources of competition of strategic business units is relatively easy: the critical problem is the assessment of the uncertainty affecting the alternative paths of evolution of these trends and their future likely outcomes. Some models of industry foresight The Shell and BASF Models: the major features

10. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Some models of industry foresight The Nokia Model

11. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Some models of industry foresight The Nokia Model: the major features scenarios may be inappropriate when it is necessary and prior to be flexible and react quickly to weak market signals; in fast changing markets, as the technology and social driven ones, What it does matter are the results of the trend investigation at a macro level of the business environment; the Nokia World Map provides every business units within the firm the information basis on which the implications of emerging trends for the business areas and investment projects can be assessed with more details.

12. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Some models of industry foresight Foresight at Philips and Siemens Also at Philips foresight activities aim at identifying disruptive trends by means of an interactive process. Insights about socio-cultural, technological, market and business related trends are integrated and made coherent. Also at Siemens foresight is conceived as a trend scanning process, with the aim of figuring out the most relevant ones for the company business units. For each business unit, a huge number of potentially relevant trends from the PEEST landscapes are selected and prioritized on the basis of their capability of affecting the target industry.

13. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Concluding remarks Some general considerations can be drawn from the case studies of industry foresight, with regards to: methodology; organizational process; output and impact on strategy and operations.

14. Foresight in Corporate Organizations Concluding remarks Organizational process Bottom-up Top-down Methodology Scenario Focused business/technology firms (political/economical drivers of change) Trend analysis Conglomerate firms/ firms with a wide range of (unrelated) business areas Focused business/technology firms (social/technological drivers of change) Correlations between methodology and process

15. Claudio Roveda and Riccardo Vecchiato Riccardo.vecchiato@polimi.it Foresight in Corporate Organizations