1. 1 Department of Geography Geography of social vulnerability, environmental hazards and climate change (VulClim) Haakon Lein,

2. 2 Department of Geography

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4. 4 Verdal: Flood, storm surge and sea level rise

5. 5 Department of Geography Point of departure Vulnerability of a place Cutter, S.; J.T. Mitchell; M. S. Scott. 2000. Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 90(4): 713–737.

6. 6 Department of Geography Biophysical hazards + Social vulnerability = Vulnerability of a place Cutter, 2000

7. 7 Department of Geography Modifications Contextualise (Norway) Add time (the future/climate change)

8. 8 Department of Geography Climate change Demo- graphic change Social and eco- nomic changes

9. 9 Department of Geography

10. 10 Department of Geography Social vulnerability Product of Social inequalities and Place inequalities Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI ) Cutter S L, Boroff, B J, Shirley W L, 2003, Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards, Social Science Quarterly, 84 (2): 242 – 261. Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for the United States based on 1990 data County level 3,141 units Collected several variables which could act as indicators on social vulnerability Factor analysis (PCA): 42 variables 11 independent factors Additive model summary score (SoVI) Mapping SoVI identify most vulnerable counties

11. 11 Department of Geography Social Vulnerability Concepts and Metrics PERCAP89 Per capita income PCTHH7589 Percent of households earning more than $75,000, 1989 PCTPOV90 Percent living in poverty, 1990 PCTVOTE92 Vote cast for president, 1992 - percent voting for leading party (Democratic)

12. 12 Department of Geography Social Vulnerability Concepts and Metrics From Cutter et al (2003), Table 1 Socioeconomic status (wealth) Gender Race and ethnicity Age Rural/urban Education Population growth Medical services Social dependence …

13. 13 Department of Geography Kilde: http://www.cas.sc.edu/geog/hrl/sovi.html

14. 14 Department of Geography Social vulnerability index (SoVI) for Norway

15. 15 Department of Geography Figure 1. Social Vulnerability Index for Norwegian municipalities based on Cutter et al. (2003) variable list

16. 16 Department of Geography Figure 2. Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index for Norwegian municipalities

17. 17 Department of Geography Local SoVI

18. 18 Department of Geography Climate change Demo- graphic change Social and eco- nomic changes

19. 19 Department of Geography How to deal with the future? Climate is obviously not the only thing that is changing... Is it possible to say something meaningful about socio-economic changes in a 50-80 year perspective? How? Local socio-economic scenarios?

20. 20 Department of Geography Local Scenarios Welfare (environment) Growth Global Local Forever growth Forever green Forever young

21. 21 Department of Geography Using existing scenarios: Some issues to be addressed Not dealing directly with climate change issues nor hazards- how to make more relevant? Cover a period up to 2020- we need scenarios up to 2050 or longer How to make a spatial interpretation, how to map the scenarios? How to identify quantifiable/measurable indicators?

22. 22 Department of Geography

23. 23 Department of Geography About the project Funded by The Research Council of Norway (NORKLIMA) & NTNU 2007-2011 3 PhD students + department staff + master students Cooperation with: –Susan Cutter, Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, University of South Carolina, –International Centre for Geohazard (SFF) –National and local agencies

24. 24 Department of Geography

25. 25 Department of Geography Holand, I, P Lujala,JK Rød (forthcomming): Vulnerability of Norwegian Municipalities to Environmental Hazards

26. 26 Department of Geography Table 1. Factors, factor labels, factor loadings, and factor sign adjustment for SoVINOR, Cutter et al. replication

27. 27 Department of Geography Table 2. Factors, factor labels, factor loadings, and factor sign adjustment for the Socioeconomic Vulnerability

28. 28 Department of Geography Table 3. Factors, factor labels, factor loadings, and factor sign adjustment for the Build Environment Vulnerability

29. 29 Department of Geography Figure 3. Built Environment Vulnerability Index for Norwegian municipalities