1. KETAHANAN EKO- SISTEM Millenium Assessment smno.psdl-ppsub.2013

2. MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT

3. An international scientific assessment of the consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being: – Modeled on the IPCC – Providing information requested by: Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD) Ramsar Convention on Wetlands Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) other partners including the private sector and civil society – With the goals of: stimulating and guiding action to conserve ecosystems and enhance their contribution to human well-being building capacity to undertake integrated ecosystem assessments and to act on their information. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

4. HUMAN CHALLENGE Considerable progress has been made in fighting poverty –life expectancy increasing –infant mortality decreasing –agricultural production increasing, etc. Major problems remain –1.2 billion people live on less than $1 per day –1 billion people do not have access to clean water –More than 2 billion people have no access to sanitation –1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards considered acceptable by WHO –700 million people suffer from indoor air pollution due to biomass burning Source: Serageldin, 2002, Science 296:54. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

5. Why a Multi-Scale Assessment? Expect that findings at any scale of a multi- scale assessment will be improved by information and perspectives from other scales Rationale –Characteristic scale of processes –Greater resolution at smaller scales –Independent validation of conclusions –Response options matched to the scale where decision-making takes place Regional Users Regional Development Banks, etc. National Government Local Community Global Assessment National Local. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

6. First MA Product: Conceptual Framework. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

7. Ecosystem Services: The benefits people obtain from ecosystems Regulating Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes climate regulation disease regulation flood regulation detoxification Provisioning Goods produced or provided by ecosystems food fresh water fuel wood fiber biochemicals genetic resources Cultural Non-material benefits obtained from ecosystems spiritual recreational aesthetic inspirational educational communal symbolic Supporting Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services. Soil formation Nutrient cycling Primary production. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

9. ECOSYSTEM CHANGES AFFECT HUMAN WELL-BEING Security is affected both by changes in provisioning services, which affect supplies of food and other goods and the likelihood of conflict over declining resources, and by changes in regulating services, which could influence the frequency and magnitude of floods, droughts or other catastrophes. It can also be affected by changes in cultural services as, for example, when their loss contributes to the weakening of social relations in a community. These changes in turn affect material well-being, health, freedom and choice and good social relations. Human well-being can be enhanced through sustainable human interactions with ecosystems supported by necessary instruments, institutions, organizations, and technology. Creation of these through participation and transparency may contribute to freedoms and choice as well as to increased economic, social, and ecological security. By ecological security, we mean the minimum level of ecological stock needed to ensure a sustainable flow of ecosystem services.. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

10. Major issues related to security Examples: Desertification in China (sand storms) Eutrofication in western coastal ecosystems Long-term droughts and rainfall variability in the Sahel Crop failures in rural Africa Food and water insecurity is a second primary area of concern in changes in ecosystems services. Multiple domains of vulnerability exist in food security regimes and livelihood systems. Production, economic exchanges, and nutrition are key elements as well as more structural issues associated with the political economy.. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

11. Framework Examines Multiple Drivers as they Influence Ecosystems and Human Well- being Driver Response Human Impact Ecosystems HealthEconomicsSocial Climate Change Land Cover Change Biodiversity Loss Nutrient Loading Etc. Millennium Assessment IPCC Climate Change Energy Sector Biodiversity Food Supply Water HealthEconomicsSocial. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

12. Framework allows examination of trade-offs among services Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686. Freshwater supply and demand Food supply and demand Forest product supply and demand Biodiversity loss Climate change Water availability Water use and nutrient loss Erosion and water flow Loss and fragmentation of habitat Reduced resilience to change Habitat loss Loss of crop genetic diversity Habitat change Change in transpiration & albedo N, CH 4, N 2 0 emissions Hydrologic CO 2 and temperature changes Precipitation & temperature Land transformation. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

13. KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL

14. . Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

15. KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL

16. . Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL

17. . Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL

18. . Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL

19. PRELIMINARY FINDINGS At a global level there have been substantial improvements in human wellbeing since the 1950s. World population has almost tripled, but the ability to support that population expanded even more. Life expectancy increased and infant mortality rates declined almost everywhere.. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

20. PRELIMINARY FINDINGS More important, however, has been the enormous expansion in human capital. Literacy rates are a proxy for the number of people with at least primary education. Literacy has increased everywhere. Secondary and tertiary education rates have also expanded greatly.. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

21. PRELIMINARY FINDINGS The growth in human well-being over the last several decades has come in large part because of increases in provisioning services from several major ecosystems. Over the last few decades, these changes have been the largest in cultivated systems, with the biggest changes in this time period coming from increased intensification rather than from large-scale conversion of land to agriculture, and coastal and marine systems, from harvesting fish resources and the addition of nutrients in coastal regions as pollutants.. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

22. Preliminary findings Nutrient cycling is one of the services that has been profoundly affected by human activities over long periods of time, with a significant acceleration in the last few decades. Most of the impact on nutrient cycling has come from the large-scale agricultural changes and its inputs over the last decades. Therefore, most of the tradeoff of increased production against other non- provisioning services, such as nutrient cycling, can be tracked by focusing on areas where agriculture has changed substantially. In the same vein, biodiversity is critical to the performance of all the buffering mechanisms that ensure an efficient use and cycling of nutrients.. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

23. Preliminary findings of Ecosystem changes due to trade-offs for enhancing provisioning services have played an important role in the emergence or resurgence of infectious diseases. Ecological processes have included: niche invasion, biodiversity loss or animal species extinction, habitat degradation, loss of predator species, or alteration or replacement of animal host population densities.. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University

24. PRELIMINARY FINDINGS It is well established that losses in biodiversity are occurring globally at all levels, from ecosystems through species, populations and genes. The current rate of species extinction is higher than at any time in the last 65 million years, and there is an increasing trend for conversion of naturally occurring, species- rich ecosystems into more intensively managed habitats, with reduced biodiversity. The extent of loss of genetic diversity is less well understood, although recorded losses in agricultural genetic diversity are widespread.. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen University