1. Regions for economic change E.C. – Brussels 25-26 Jan 2007 Demography, educational supply and employment prospects - The regional dimension in the EU Géry Coomans

2. 2000-20102010-2020 Decennial growth of age group 15-24 -7%-10%

3. INDEX OF REPLACEMENT OF THE WORKING AGE POP. Age group 15-24 as % of age group 55-64 20002020 121%77%

4. Younger cohorts : declining size but better education Higher education brings Personal flexicurity higher wages improved living conditions Globallarger labour supply higher productivity growth high added value srategies better State funding and better governance

5. Demand for labour massively concentrates on tertiary educated

6. Annual growth of employment per educational attainment –1996-2003)

7. Share of young adulys Share of young adulys Share of young adults (25-34) with tertiary education 2000 2020

8. HIGH IMPACT ON FERTILITY The old relation (more education means less fertility) is being progressively reversed in a majority of Ms. Female progression IMPACT ON LABOUR SUPPLY (only Lisbon objective that will be reached by 2010 = female empl. Rate at 60%)

9. Educational progression (% of High in 25-34 group less % of High in 55-64 group) MALESFEMALES+5 pp +15 pp

10. Potential growth of employment for Low educated (15-64) 2003-2020 Average EU25= 0% (in case empl. rates were raised to « Nordic levels ») Due to their lower flexibility, more mismatches. Coping through restructuring, vocational training and immigration

11. A fast ageing of lowest occupational positions EU15 ( Isco 9 = elementary occupations) In 2001: 1 in 3 aged 45+ In 2021: 55% aged 45+

12. Potential growth of employment for High educated (15-64) 2003-2020 i.e. approx. half the 1996-2003 performance How to fuel the KBS ?

13. 2003-2010 2010-2020 Next decade: tightening supply

14. Policy implications Global level : Going beyond block structure life cycle towards lifelong development of competences Regional level: More steps towards decentralised AND RECURRENT education Reforming procedures and contents to help reform the institutional framework Regional financial incentives Setting baits for the academic fish (ex. France where local universities massively rush to vocational training since the 2003 reform).