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The Success Stories and its Limits: The Concrete Case Studies (3 lectures) - Russia/Soviet Union - Latin America in the Era of Catching Up Industrialisation - East Asian Miracle: The Rise of the New Industrial Pole
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The empire model of modernisation Goals – maintenance of military-political power, ability to defensive and offensive war Means – modernisation of army & the state governance, selective borrowings of the advanced technolo- gies and scientific accomplishments important for militarisation
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The Rise of Dualism in Russia Army & military industry resources Exploitation of country-side Conservation of backwardness as the main obstacle to further modernisation
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Alexander Pushkin on the internal central-peripheral structure of Russia “Whatever for caprice of spending ingenious London has been sending across the Baltic in exchange for wood and tallow; all the range of useful objects that the curious Parisian taste invents for one – for friends of languor, or of fun, or for the modishly luxurious – all this, at eighteen years of age adorned the sanctum of our sage.” (Eugene Onegin)
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GDP per capita in some countries of Latin America and Europe (including Russia), 1870-1938 Countries Absolute amount of GDP per capita, measured by PPP (in dollars of 1990) The ratio of countries’ GDP per capita to the world average 1870190019131929193818701900191319291938 France 1 8582 8493 4524 6664 4242.022.182.172.472.30 Germany 1 9133 1343 8334 3355 1262.082.402.412.302.67 United Kingdom 3 2634 5935 0325 2555 9833.553.523.162.793.11 Russia/USSR 1 0231 2181 4881 3862 1501.110.93 0.741.12 Argentina 1 3112 7563 7974 3674 0721.432.112.392.322.12 Brazil 7407048391 1061 2910.800.540.530.590.67 Chile -1 9492 6533 3963 139-1.491.671.801.63 Mexico 7101 1571 4671 4891 3800.770.890.920.790.72 Venezuela -8211 1043 4264 144-0.630.691.822.15 World in average *) 9201 3051 5921 8841 9231.00
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For comparison of Uruguay with Denmark Dieter Sengaas. The European Experience: A Historical Critique of Development Theory. Leamington Spa, Dover (N.H.): Berg Publishers, 1985 (1-st published in Frankfurt-am- Main, 1982, in German)
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The ratio of some Latin American and European countries’ (including Russia/USSR) GDP per capita to the world average, 1929-1970 Countries19291938195019601970 France2. 472. 302. 332. 552. 92 Germany/FRG2. 302. 671. 912. 893. 03 United Kingdom2. 793. 113. 142. 922. 70 Russia/USSR0. 741. 121. 271. 341. 40 Argentina2. 322. 122. 231. 901. 84 Brazil0. 590. 670. 750. 800. 77 Chile1. 801. 631. 711. 471. 32 Mexico0. 790. 720. 930. 95 Venezuela1. 822. 153. 32 2. 73 World in average *) 1. 00
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Limits of Import Substitution Industrialisation to itself (Latin America) 1) A shortage of material, financial, and human resources; 2) Conservation of the internal central- peripheral structure; 3) Necessity to enlarge importation of capital goods and to maintain the traditional export; 4) Impossibility to redistribute national income in extending degree
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Brazil – dynamics of GDP (1965-1980) and the public external debt (1965-1975)
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Brazil – skyrocketing growth of the external debt, 1978 – 1980 – 1985, billions US$
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Two generations of ‘tigers’ The first-tier ‘tigers’ - Hong Kong - Singapore - Taiwan - South Korea The second-tier ‘tigers’ - Malaysia - Thailand - Indonesia (‘semi- tiger’) - The Philippines (‘under-tiger’)
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GDP p/c (US$ of 1990 on PPP) – 1960-1970- 1980-1990
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1960197019801990 Brazil 2335305751984923 Mexico 3155432062896119 Hong Kong 313456951050317541 Singapore 23104439905814365 Taiwan 1492298058699886 South Korea 1105195441148704 Ghana 1378142411571063 Congo, DR (Zaire) 755782617525
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Flying Geese Model K. Akamatsu. A Historical Pattern of Economic Growth in Developing Countries. – The Developing Economies, vol. 1, N 1, March – August 1962. P. Korhonen. The Theory of the Flying Geese Pattern of Development and Its Interpretations. –Journal of Peace Research, vol. 31, N 1, 1994. M. Tateishi. Southeast Asian Flying Geese? – In: Southeast Asia’s Misunderstood Miracle: Industrial Policy and Economic Development in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Ed. by K. S. Jomo. Boulder (Col.), Oxford: Westview Press, 1997. UNCTAD. Trade and Development Report 1996. N.Y., Geneva: UN, 1996, pp. 75-81.
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The gross internal investments in fixed capital, as percentage of GDP, in East/Southeast Asian Newly Industrialising Countries, 1970-1995 Countries Y e a r s 197019751980198519901995 Hong Kong 18.619.333.221.526.130.6 Korea 24.525.632.128.637.336.7 Singapore 32.535.140.742.232.533.7 Taiwan, prov. n. a. 18.822.422.9 Indonesia 13.6 a)20.3 a)20.9 b)23.128.328.4 Malaysia 16.125.131.136.332.443.0 Thailand 24.122.325.227.240.441.1
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The gross internal investments in fixed capital, as percentage of GDP, in East/Southeast Asian Newly Industrialising Countries, 1970-1975-1980-1985-1990-1995
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The Developmental State The Developmental State. Ed. by Meredith Woo-Cumings. Ithaca – London: Cornell University Press, 1999 Ha-Joon Chang. The East Asian Development Experience: The Miracle, the Crisis and the Future. London – New York: Zed Books, 2006
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The colonial heritage and development
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