1. Mr John Barber Program Manager, Resources Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE)

2. bree.gov.au Outlook for Australian Resources and Energy Commodities Australian National Conference on Resources and Energy John Barber Senior Economist Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics

3. bree.gov.au Overview I.Phases of the mining boom II.Outlook for Australia’s key exports

4. bree.gov.au 1. Phases of the mining boom i.High price phase ii.Investment phase iii.Output phase

5. bree.gov.au China Gross Domestic Product

6. bree.gov.au High Price Phase C ommodity Price Indexes

7. bree.gov.au Stock of Committed Investment & Flow of Capital Expenditure Source: ABS, BREE High Price Phase - Part 1 High Price Phase – Part 2 Investment Phase

8. bree.gov.au Cumulative Committed Investment Pluto LNG Sino Iron NWS Rankin B Gorgon LNG QCLNG APLNG 1 Gladstone LNG Jimblebar Prelude LNG Wheatstone LNG APLNG 2 Ichthys LNG High Price Phase - Part 1 High Price Phase – Part 2 Investment Phase

9. bree.gov.au Is the ‘mining boom’ over?

10. bree.gov.au Australia – Monthly Iron Ore Exports Source: ABS

11. bree.gov.au Australia – Monthly Thermal Coal Exports Source: ABS

12. bree.gov.au Australia – Monthly Metallurgical Coal Exports Source: ABS

13. bree.gov.au Employment Source: ABS

14. bree.gov.au Metals Prices

15. bree.gov.au World thermal coal prices Source: Bloomberg

16. bree.gov.au Australia’s Exports Source: ABS

17. bree.gov.au China’s GDP Growth Source: CEIC

18. bree.gov.au China Refined Metals Demand Source: CEIC, WBMS

19. bree.gov.au Number and Value of Projects Under Construction in Australia

20. bree.gov.au Key Project Delays and Cancellations

21. bree.gov.au Thermal Coal - Capital Spend to Build a Tonne of New Capacity Source: Minerals Council of Australia, 2012, ‘Opportunity at Risk’ 45% 188%

22. bree.gov.au Iron Ore - Capital Spend to Build a Tonne of New Capacity Source: Minerals Council of Australia, 2012, ‘Opportunity at Risk’ 56% 95%

23. bree.gov.au LNG Project Cost Increases 154% 301% 121% 250% 130% 39%

24. bree.gov.au Projected Investment in Australian Resources and Energy Projects

25. bree.gov.au 2. Outlook for Australia’s Exports

26. bree.gov.au Australia’s Iron Ore Exports

27. bree.gov.au Australia’s Metallurgical Coal Exports

28. bree.gov.au Thermal coal exports

29. bree.gov.au LNG Exports

30. bree.gov.au Total Australian Mineral and Energy Commodity Export Values

31. bree.gov.au Contact and Follow Up John Barber Senior Economist - Resources Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics 02 6243 7988 john.barber@bree.gov.au