1. US Economic Outlook
Ryan Wang US Economist
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
June 2015
Disclaimer & Disclosures: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it

2. Industrial production since the Great Recession
Source: Federal Reserve, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis 2 2

3. Global industrial production growth has slowed
Source: Federal Reserve, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis 3 3

4. Sharp drop in oil prices since the middle of 2014
Source: Bloomberg

5. US: Oil drilling has plunged, production still climbing
Source: US Energy Information Administration, Baker Hughes 5 5

6. US: Manufacturing and energy sectors have weakened this year
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 6

7. US: Weakness in Q1 GDP was likely overstated
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 7 7

8. US: Labor force participation on a downward trend
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 8

9. US: Composition of workforce is changing
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 9

10. US: Wage gains subdued by historical standards
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. US: Housing recovery has been slower than in previous cycles
Source: US Census Bureau

12. US: Homebuilders reluctant to overbuild
Source: US Census Bureau 12 12

13. US: Core inflation below 2%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

14. FOMC projections for federal funds rate
Source: Federal Reserve

15. Fed balance sheet would shrink following a change in reinvestment policy
Source: Federal Reserve, HSBC

16. Interest rates in advanced economies
Source: Bloomberg