1. Project and Workshop on inventories and projections of GHG and NH 3 emissions from agriculture in Central and Eastern Europe Ispra, 23-24. Juni 2005 Projections of Agricultural Activities in CEE Countries in the timeframe 2003-2012 Hungary I. Pazsiczki 1 - G. Borka 2 - Zsófia Ördögh 3 1 Hungarian Institute of Agricultural Engineering, Gödöllő 2 Institute for Animal Breeding and Nutrition, Herceghalom 3 National Directorate for Environment and Nature

2. General information on the Hungarian agriculture 1980 – 1985 Hungarian agriculture in accordance with the countrys ecological and economic potentials 1986 – 1990 Decrease 1991 – 1995 Dramatic fall The area of the country 93,033 km 2 of which 62.9% agricultural area (48% arable land, 3.2% garden, orchard and vineyard, 11.3% grassland), 18.9% forest, 0.9% reed and fish-pond, 17.2% uncultivated land area)

3. General information on the Hungarian agriculture Number of agricultural producers has decreased by more than 30%, number of employees has decreased by more than 50%. Between 1990 and 2000, volume index of gross production of agricultural products decreased by over 30%, and livestock population decreased by nearly 50%. Efficiency of production has been deteriorating in several sectors simultaneously. Production per one hectare of agricultural land has declined both in crop cultivation and animal farming.

4. Trends and situation in generally Ecological potential we are far from it predicts growing Technological level further development, investments needed prediction depends on economy and supporting system constant production / growing Supporting system Direct payment system more money we get predicts growing of production Special support > Support for investments of animal welfare, environment protection (meeting standards) Farm concentration number of farms decrease effect ??? Economy ?????

5. Method Data for estimation of ammonia and GHG emission can get Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Research Institutions AKII (Research Institute of Agricultural Economics HUSIM – Hungarian Simulation Model agriculture and food industry prediction in national level /not usable for local or regional level/ it assumes that word economy is unitary so uses the trends of word economy it uses 34 agricultural and 30 food products (~ 80 %) prices, inflation, rate of exchange, yields, population, wages etc. National Ministry of Finance(2004), OECD(2004), FAPRI(2004), EC DG AGRI(2004)

6. Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012 Other cattle Dairy cattle

7. Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012 Swine

8. Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012 Sheep

9. Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012 Total poultry

10. Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012 Fertilizer N

11. Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012

12. Difficulties to collect data that concerning future, additional research needed accuracy ????? The key problem pertaining to the improvement of agricultural emission inventories is the financing and the co-ordination of the research capacity scattered in the country. For the time being, negotiations have been started between the Ministry of Environment and Water, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and several research units on establising a working group of agricultural emissions. Major problems encountered for the projections of NH 3 and GHG emissions arising from agriculture

13. Thank you for your attention!