1. Possibilities for Africa in Global Action on Climate Change Lord Nicholas Stern Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, IG Patel Professor of Economics & Government, London School of Economics and Political Science African Partnership Forum Special Session on Climate Change 3 September 2009,Addis Ababa

2. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | Three Part Structure 1 Section 1: The case for a strong global Section 2:Challenges and Opportunities Section 3: Key Issues for Africa Section 1: Climate Change– Some African Perspectives

3. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | 2 East Africa ▪ Rainfall may increase in some areas ▪ Expansion of vector-borne disease transmission zone ▪ Declines in fisheries in some major East African lakes North Africa ▪ Water stress may be worsened by increased desertification of semi-arid areas West and Central Africa ▪ Low agricultural yields may be worsened by drought ▪ Cities at risk from coastal flooding Southern Africa ▪ Heightened water stress in some river basins from droughts and changes in precipitation 1Including emissions from land-use and forestry SOURCE: UNFCCC; UN ESA; IEA; Current development issues may be worsened by climate change Climate change is a critical issue for Africa Per capita GHG emission comparison 1 MtCO 2 e per capital Africa U.S. Global 2030 2.9 22.4 8.4 2005 3.3 21.8 6.6

4. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | 3 Climate change will threaten the development agenda – with some effects already here Economic growth Income poverty and hunger Direct and indirect health effects Dislocation, (cross border and cross continental) migration and conflict

5. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | A strong global deal on climate change is in Africa’s interests 4

6. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | 5 A strong global deal on climate change is in Africa’s interests

7. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | Three Part Structure 6 Section 1: The case for a strong global Section 2:Challenges and Opportunities Section 3: Key Issues for Africa Section 2:Challenges and Opportunities

8. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | Financing and fostering low-carbon growth Achieving low-carbon growth is possible and in fact an opportunity for Africa’s development, but it requires an investment strategy Low-carbon growth strategies should be embodied in holistic national action plans that integrate adaptation, mitigation and development. These plans will guide implementation and facilitate access to the necessary funding. Africa will need not only additional funding but also timely and predictable delivery on existing ODA commitments. Financial mechanisms should be performance based but should suit Africa’s specific needs. The institutional structures from a global deal should promote equity, efficiency and mutual trust. 7

9. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | 8 Key opportunities ▪ Deploy on-grid renewable technologies using climate change related funding to cover incremental costs ▪ Develop off-grid renewable power and cooking/ heating technologies with co-benefits for development ▪ Support energy efficiency programmes through capability building and knowledge sharing Energy ▪ Climate-proof agricultural yields through funds incremental to ODA ▪ Use funding for forest and land-based mitigation to capture agriculture and forestry-related co-benefits and raise value of forest/land ▪ Develop bioenergy industry for local and export markets Agriculture and forestry ▪ Make strategic development choices that reflect water demand and supply ▪ Factor climate change into design and planning of water efficiency across sectors ▪ Climate-proof existing and new water supply infrastructure ▪ Leap-frog to new water supply solutions that save both energy and carbon Water ▪ Orient transportation systems on a low-carbon pathway ▪ Protect urban development and infrastructure through construction of sea-walls, dikes and flood-protection systems with specific adaptation funding ▪ Strengthen disaster relief management capabilities and preparedness Cities and infrastructure ▪ Build on efforts to strengthen public health and health systems so they can better cope with climate change impacts ▪ Invest in climate data and track impact of climate change on health to allow for healthcare planning, improved early warning and faster response to crises Health Adaptation opportunities Low-carbon growth opportunities

10. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | 9 Opportunities to attract flows of finance to Africa The global abatement potential in 2030 is around 38Gt Co 2 e relative to BAU emissions of 70Gt Co 2 e at a cost of up to €60 per tonne Co 2 e

11. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | Adapting to climate change and the opportunity to move to a low carbon economy: the costs in Africa The cost of action on climate change in Africa could amount to around $30 billion per year in 2015. This figure includes around $20 billion per year for adaptation and $10 billion per year for the transition to a low carbon economy (mitigation). In the 2020s, the additional costs for adaptation together with the mitigation costs for Africa could rise to between $50–100 billion per year. Adaptation costs, in particular, are likely to rise rapidly as the climate changes over the next two decades. Based on incremental costs for low-carbon abatement opportunities, additional financing would be concentrated in three main sectors: forestry, agriculture and energy. Key areas for adaptation finance include capacity building, anticipatory adaptation and climate-proofing and social protection (which includes protecting livelihoods and health). 10

12. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | Three Part Structure 11 Section 1: The case for a strong global Section 2:Challenges and Opportunities Section 3: Key Issues for Africa

13. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | Key Issues and a Possible Position for Africa The twin challenges of climate change in Africa are development in a more hostile climate and the creation of low-carbon growth: action on climate change and on development cannot be separated. It is crucial that rich countries not only honour their existing commitments but also find the extra resources necessary to cope with the climate change in the next two decades, which arises mainly from their past emissions. Adaptation costs are likely to rise rapidly as the climate changes over the next two decades. Many populations will suffer severe stress from more frequent and more severe floods, droughts and storms as well radical changes in patterns of rainfall. 12

14. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | Key Issues and a Possible Position for Africa Carbon markets must be reformed to include opportunities relevant to Africa, particularly opportunities in forestry. But halting deforestation will require major development support, including for agricultural productivity and governance, beyond that from carbon markets which calls for additional public funding. The main sources of new public funding for climate change should be: (i)national carbon taxes in rich countries (ii)national permit auction revenue from carbon markets (iii)international auction revenues, as in the Norwegian proposal (iv)international transport levies (v)general rich country government revenues. All are relevant and a mix would be more stable than just one. Any source of finance should be blended with development funding in as simple a way as possible: both predictability, reliability and linking to results will be important. 13

15. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | Key Issues and a Possible Position for Africa The institutional architecture from a global deal should promote equity, efficiency and mutual trust. The administration of funds should: be simple and efficient; limit the number of new institutions use existing development channels where possible well-integrated into development programmes draw upon governance embodying full developed and developing country representation At the national level, in both developed and developing countries, ensuring efficient and transparent national and local institutions will help build mutual trust and increase the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation activities. 14

16. Working Draft - Last Modified 16/06/2009 12:31:03 Printed 16/06/2009 12:16:17 | How to make it happen Climate change requires the attention of Heads of State. The current economic crisis is not an excuse, on the contrary it is an opportunity to lay the foundations of low carbon growth Africa is at its most powerful if it can speak with one voice. Africa has a very strong position on the basis of (i) having least responsibility for the problem, (ii) being most affected and (iii) being poorest.. 15

17. Possibilities for Africa in Global Action on Climate Change Lord Nicholas Stern Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, IG Patel Professor of Economics & Government, London School of Economics and Political Science African Partnership Forum Special Session on Climate Change 3 September 2009,Addis Ababa