2. Forecasting and Disseminating AQI in Delhi Joseph Cassmassi South Coast Air Quality Management District U.S.A

3. Program Objectives Communicate AQI to public --real-time cautionary measures --forecast health statementsCommunicate AQI to public --real-time cautionary measures --forecast health statements Short-term control program --actions based on attained air quality --forecast initiated emissions reductionsShort-term control program --actions based on attained air quality --forecast initiated emissions reductions

4. Delhi Profile Growing!Growing! Approximately 10 million residentsApproximately 10 million residents 1,500 squared kilometers1,500 squared kilometers Traffic congestionTraffic congestion Expanding urbanizationExpanding urbanization Expanding industrial outputExpanding industrial output

5. Terrain Generally flat - Yamuna river valleyGenerally flat - Yamuna river valley Great Indian Desert to westGreat Indian Desert to west Alwar Hills to the southwestAlwar Hills to the southwest Mewat Plain to the southMewat Plain to the south Ganges River Valley to the eastGanges River Valley to the east

6. Pollutant Background Pollutants monitored --particulate matter --ozone --sulfur oxides (sulfates) --carbon monoxide --nitrogen dioxidePollutants monitored --particulate matter --ozone --sulfur oxides (sulfates) --carbon monoxide --nitrogen dioxide Toxics PollutantsToxics Pollutants Particulate levels significantParticulate levels significant

7. Expectations Success of forecasting and reporting AQI hinges upon --reliable telemetry --effective communications system --relaying the message --timelinessSuccess of forecasting and reporting AQI hinges upon --reliable telemetry --effective communications system --relaying the message --timeliness Public/School/Industry outreach programs are necessaryPublic/School/Industry outreach programs are necessary

8. Forecasting Expectations Targets: --preventive health warnings --mandatory emissions reductionsTargets: --preventive health warnings --mandatory emissions reductions Realistic goals: -- what level of pollution reduction is achievable? -- what level of pollution reduction is acceptable?Realistic goals: -- what level of pollution reduction is achievable? -- what level of pollution reduction is acceptable?

9. Forecast Accuracy Set realistic goalsSet realistic goals Prediction accuracy for categories of AQI --minimum acceptable accuracy 50% --target accuracy 65% or higherPrediction accuracy for categories of AQI --minimum acceptable accuracy 50% --target accuracy 65% or higher Prediction accuracy is dependent upon the number of AQI categories forecastPrediction accuracy is dependent upon the number of AQI categories forecast Concentration forecast error ~ 10% of maximum observed concentrationConcentration forecast error ~ 10% of maximum observed concentration

10. Likely Pollutants to Be Forecast Highest Priority: --Particulate Matter PM10/PM2.5 (current levels > 300 ug/m3) --Carbon Monoxide --OzoneHighest Priority: --Particulate Matter PM10/PM2.5 (current levels > 300 ug/m3) --Carbon Monoxide --Ozone Lesser Priority --Nitrogen dioxide --Sulfur Dioxide --SulfatesLesser Priority --Nitrogen dioxide --Sulfur Dioxide --Sulfates

11. Components of Multi-pollutant Forecasting Understanding the ProblemUnderstanding the Problem Developing the forecasting toolsDeveloping the forecasting tools Communicating the right messageCommunicating the right message

12. Understanding the Problem Seasonality of the different pollutantsSeasonality of the different pollutants Pollutant specific impact zonesPollutant specific impact zones Overlapping impacts -- time -- spaceOverlapping impacts -- time -- space

14. Developing Tools Availability of historical dataAvailability of historical data Blending forecast requirementsBlending forecast requirements Adjusting for trends Developing ToolsAdjusting for trends Developing Tools

15. AQI Prediction Algorithm Empirical Analysis/Pattern Recognition --fewer data requirements --site specific prediction --no requirement for emissions --flexible - requires limited timeEmpirical Analysis/Pattern Recognition --fewer data requirements --site specific prediction --no requirement for emissions --flexible - requires limited time Numerical Simulation --data intensive including emissions --not flexibleNumerical Simulation --data intensive including emissions --not flexible

16. Modeling Techniques PersistencePersistence Multivariate RegressionMultivariate Regression Updated Stratified Multivariate RegressionUpdated Stratified Multivariate Regression MOS Linked Multivariate RegressionMOS Linked Multivariate Regression Nearest Neighbor Analog Prediction AlgorithmNearest Neighbor Analog Prediction Algorithm

17. Air Quality Data Availability Minimum of 2-3 years of dataMinimum of 2-3 years of data Gases -- hourly dataGases -- hourly data Particulates -- Hi Vol PM10 (6 th – day) --Real-time PM10 sampling (BAM or TEOM)Particulates -- Hi Vol PM10 (6 th – day) --Real-time PM10 sampling (BAM or TEOM) Special studiesSpecial studies

18. Meteorological Data Availability Vertical temperature structure (soundings and pressure surface analyses)Vertical temperature structure (soundings and pressure surface analyses) Winds or surrogate (pressure gradients)Winds or surrogate (pressure gradients) Humidity: surface and aloftHumidity: surface and aloft Numerical Forecast Model OutputNumerical Forecast Model Output

23. Daily Operational Requirements

24. Data Routinely Used By Forecast

29. Man Power/Liaisons Continuous communication between monitoring and forecast groupsContinuous communication between monitoring and forecast groups Liaison and communication between agencies (air quality - meteorology) to provide dataLiaison and communication between agencies (air quality - meteorology) to provide data Forecasting is a daily job requiring sufficient staffForecasting is a daily job requiring sufficient staff Liaison to media disseminationLiaison to media dissemination

30. Forecast/AQI Coverage Global forecast or AQI message --covers total area --single air quality descriptionGlobal forecast or AQI message --covers total area --single air quality description Forecast zones --source areas (notification for emissions curtailment actions) --receptor areas (area specific air quality notification)Forecast zones --source areas (notification for emissions curtailment actions) --receptor areas (area specific air quality notification)

31. Source/Receptor Areas (SRA)

32. Forecast Zones

33. Knowledge of Emissions Sources Which sources contribute --inventory --speciation profilesWhich sources contribute --inventory --speciation profiles To what reasonable level can a source be asked to curtail emissions? --process --technologyTo what reasonable level can a source be asked to curtail emissions? --process --technology Monitoring & enforcementMonitoring & enforcement ExemptionsExemptions

34. Burning Issues Control agricultural burning -- criteria in forecast --smoke management programControl agricultural burning -- criteria in forecast --smoke management program Banning open burning of refuse --stagnant meteorological conditions --seasonallyBanning open burning of refuse --stagnant meteorological conditions --seasonally

35. Getting the Message Out

39. Typical Media Forecast

40. First Steps Evaluate ability to develop reliable data liaisons: forecasting and reportingEvaluate ability to develop reliable data liaisons: forecasting and reporting Expand the monitoring network to provide enhanced characterization of problemExpand the monitoring network to provide enhanced characterization of problem Decide on the scope of the AQI/forecast message: global or site specificDecide on the scope of the AQI/forecast message: global or site specific

41. Second Steps Develop basic conceptual modelDevelop basic conceptual model Evaluate forecaster’s ability to identify the general profileEvaluate forecaster’s ability to identify the general profile Start with a categorical AQI predictionStart with a categorical AQI prediction Develop confidence in forecastDevelop confidence in forecast Data analysis to develop a simple modelData analysis to develop a simple model Develop confidence in model predictionsDevelop confidence in model predictions

42. Acceptance AQI acceptance is tied to its simplicity in conveying a messageAQI acceptance is tied to its simplicity in conveying a message AQI forecast needs to reasonably accurate --avoid “cry wolf” --capture events if not peak concentrationsAQI forecast needs to reasonably accurate --avoid “cry wolf” --capture events if not peak concentrations Industry will usually accept a program that is designed to be unbiasedIndustry will usually accept a program that is designed to be unbiased