1. Corporate Foresight in Europe: Ready for the Next Step?
Cornelia Daheim
2nd Int. Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts on policy and decision making,
28th- 29th September 2006

2. Issues CF in Europe - results from a recent survey
Foresight Experience and Aims
Activities / Methods
Organizational Forms
Understanding and Relevance
Success Factors & Barriers
CF - The Next Phase
Conclusions

3. Defining Corporate Foresight
Our understanding of CF:
Foresight for and in corporations is
a multi-layered communication process
a systematic, continuous approach
based on a tested range of methods
centres around medium to long-term oriented work on strategies, innovation and vision
a participatory process that makes businesses capable of making strategic decisions early
When we talk about CF, we need to develop a clear view of the conceptual scope for these activities. But very often such a scope lacks in reality. For that we propose to refer to a conceptual framework, when starting to build
Die wichtigste Punkt, auf den ich sie hinweisen möchte ist: CF ist mehr als Future Research. CF ist vielmehr als ein komplexer Kommunikationsprozess zu verstehen, der das Ziel verfolgen sollte, das Unternehmen systematisch und kontinuierlich mit der möglichen Zukunftsentwicklungen zu konfrontieren.
Hier können Sie erkennen, dass CF sich auf drei Ebenen realisiert.
Level 1 ist Zukunftsforschung im eigentlichen Sinne, die Anwendung der Methoden und Tools vom Monitoring von Trends über Key Factor Analysen bis hin zur Szenarioentwicklung. Diese Ebene ist die Domäne der Zukunftsforscher, sei es innerhalb des Unternehmens oder in externen Think Tanks.
Auf der zweiten Ebene geht es um die Übersetzung der Research-Ergebnisse und Insights in die strategische Fragestellungen des Unternehmens. Die erste und wichtigste Frage des Managements ist stets: „So what?“. Was folgt aus euren Scenarios für unser Geschäft? Hier ist in jedem Fall der interne Foresight-Spezialst, bzw. das Foresight Team gefordert. Diese haben auch an die Anbindung an Strategie- und Innovationsprozesse zu kümmern.
Die dritte Ebene schließlich betrifft die konkrete Anwendung der Strategischen Ableitungen und Empfehlungen in den Business Units. Auch hier muss CF einen aktiven Beitrag leisten. Die schönsten Analysen sind wertlos, wenn sie im Unternehmen nicht ankommen. CF hat daher auch die Aufgabe ,parallel zur Projektarbeit eine Kultur der Zukunftsoffenheit mit zu gestalten. Möglichst viele Mitarbeiter sollten sensibilisiert und auf den Weg in die Zukunft mitgenommen werden.

4. CF in Europe - The Survey
The study: „Strategic Foresight in Companies“, 2005 to 2006
Adrian Müller, University of St. Gallen (strategicforesight.ch) in cooperation with Z_punkt
Results to be published this year
Key Questions:
How are Foresight processes designed and implemented?
What is the best approach to integrating them into corporate strategic decision-making processes?
What are the critical factors of success?
What is currently considered state of the art?

5. CF Survey - Background Data
3 criteria for selecting respondents:
Large businesses with a turnover of at least 150 ml EUR annually
Headquarters in Europe
Have corporate strategic foresight process
Respondents:
152 contacted, 40 countable replies
9 countries (Germany, Sweden, Norway, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, UK, Switzerland, Liechtenstein)
13 different industries (Automotive, Chemicals, Construction; Consumer goods; Electronics; Engineering; Financial Services; Appliances; Oil / gas; Pharma; Commerce; IT / Telecom.; Power Supply; Others = includes media, tourism, consulting, precision engineering, logistics)

6. CF Survey - Foresight Experience + Aims
CF is mostly continuous:
8%: Foresight process running for more than 30 years
50%: 10 years or more (median 10 years)
25%: 3 or less years
Aims: Strategy, Innovation, Early Warning
88%: Support for strategic decision-making in general
77%: Improving long-term planning
65%: Enabling early warning / issue management
58%: Improvement of innovation process
Less important: “soft objectives”
43%: Fostering future-oriented thinking and culture
30%: Generation of visions and normative empowerment

7. CF – 4 Types of Organ. Forms
The Think Tank
many addressees + tasks
wide internal + external network
wider perspective
separate units, full-time staff
generating new own outputs
The Observatory
specialised task f.e. forecasting future traffic
single addressee
well networked internally
The Outsourcer
changing project team, but high continuity
Experts in drawing
info inside
Internal interpretation
High visibility
Size
The Collecting Post
„on the side“
individuals
collecting existing information
low visibility
Survey: 52% work with foresight department / unit
10% individual person
Level of Connectedness + Scope of Tasks
Typology from Becker 2002, with additions by Z_punkt

8. CF Survey - Activities / Methods
Regular application of foresight methods (“sometimes” in brackets; n=40):
26 (8): Trend analysis
26 (9): Media / Publication analysis
19 (16): Scenarios
12 (17): Roadmapping
11 (23): Participatory / Creative Methods
5 (10): Simulations
5 (5): Delphi
Trend analysis dominant, also in terms of activities
focus on gathering data and information!
Scenarios also rather popular
Less use of Delphi than in public sector

9. CF Survey - Success Factors & Barriers
Critical success factors:
High importance:
quality and strategic relevance of results (ease of understanding, practicability, measurability of successes, plurality and soundness of options),
participation and communication
Secondary importance:
Process input (data and information quality) and efficiency, methods, resources
Barriers:
Organizational / political
Insufficient legitimation
High costs

10. CF Survey - Understanding & Relevance
Understanding of CF changing, but still more on the instrumental side:
50%: environmental information gathering process
20%: reflection and knowledge generation process
15%: normative vision-building process
Relevance growing in the last 5 years
70%: in their own company
60%: in business in general
but: lower increase in scope and appreciation
55%: more appreciation in their company
37,5%: more appreciated in general

11. CF - Challenges Legitimation problems remain Challenges:
Lack of organizational “roots”
Spokesperson / lobby dependence
Lack of evaluation / lack of clarity about use and impacts
Only a third control performance
Only a third regularly overhaul and improve CF process
Critical success factors - besides obvious (quality and strat. relevance of results) all “soft factors”:
Participation
Communication
Culture
Commitment
Reactive perspective: focus on trend analysis, scanning etc.
Lack of creative and “sense-making” approaches

12. Corporate Foresight Dominant Logics / Paradigms
Assumption:
The future can be foreseen by collecting and comparing the opinions of (numerous) experts.
Assumption:
The future can be calculated by appropriate computer models based on huge amounts of data and mathematical finesse.
Assumption:
Businesses can understand the future by anticipating the impact of trends on customers and markets.
Assumption:
Businesses can shape future contexts and markets by anticipating the dynamic interaction between social, techn. & economic forces.
Expert-based
Foresight
Model-based
Foresight
Trend-based Foresight
Context-based
(„Open“) Foresight
1960
2010

13. Characteristics Corporate Foresight Waves
Dominant CF-Paradigm
Expert-based Foresight
Model-based Foresight
Trend-based Foresight
Context-based
„Open“ Foresight
Assumption
Knowability by Expertise
Calculability by Models
Projectability by Developments
Shapability by Interaction
Key Characteristics
Belief in Experts dominant, but:
70s: Turn to the qualitative and wider environment
First Opening towards “soft sciences”
Scenarios
Quantitative and “subjective” models
Extrapolation
Systems
Dominated by “hard science”
Trends
Weak Signals
Early Warning
Mix of qualitative and quantitative
Indicators
Integrating “soft” and “hard” approaches
Understanding & interpreting / evaluating change
Opening up: Participation, interaction & process
Action- and innovation-oriented
More attention on discontinuities
Perspective
Exploring Change
Calculating Change
Reacting to Change
Understanding & Anticipating / Shaping Change
Output
Delphis, Roadmaps, Scenarios
Models & Matrixes
Trend-databases
Monitoring Systems
Scenarios; Wild Cards; Action Plans & Innovation Ideas

14. CF in Europe Conclusions
CF in Europe by now rather widespread and established within large companies
Constant high internal “justification-pressure”
“Usual problems” remain unsolved
Conclusions on key factors for success - meant as making an impact:
Involvement of top management
Explicit aims and targets, performance control
Evaluation and regular overhaul of process = continuity
Participation
More stress on understanding change, deciding about action (= integration into decision-making, not merely its preparation!), less stress on data, content, projections etc.
Proactive instead of reactive perspective
Process competence: being able to deal with recurring “old logics”
Attention to importance of networking, community building, marketing CF, spokespersons
The Next Phase: Towards Open Foresight:
More permeability of content
Firmer integration into decision-making
Less trend hypes, more stress on process and “sense-making”, more evaluation and differentiation (methods, aims, outcomes)

15. Thanks for your attention. More information + newsletter: http://www

16. Corporate Foresight Think Tank
founded in 1997
located in Berlin, Essen and Karlsruhe
staff of about 20 employees
Foresight-Services for Strategic Management and Innovation: From Trend Monitoring to Scenario Processes
Content Provider for Strategic Future Knowledge: Context, Consumers, Sectors, Technologies
External Think Tank for Challenging Creative Processes
Partner for Systematic Implementation of Corporate Foresight in Entrepreneurial Practices

17. Customers

18. International Foresight Group (IFG)
Coordinator
Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company
IFG Founder and Coordinator
North America
USA
The Arlington Institute
Non-profit research institute about global change
John L. Petersen, President
Europe
Finland
Finland Futures Academy Finland Futures Research Center, Dr. Juha Kaskinen, Director (University)
Asia
China
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences
Prof. Ph.D Rusong Wang
Nucleo de Estudos de Futuro (NEF) The Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo (PUC SP)  University and NGO Prof. Arnoldo José de Hoyos
Latin America
Brazil
Africa
South Africa
Center for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) Think Tank, private sector (Global Research Alliance), Pretoria Dr. Reinie Biesenbach, Centre Manager