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How Early Is Early? Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on Later Behavioral Trajectories John M. Bolland Bradley.

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Presentation on theme: "How Early Is Early? Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on Later Behavioral Trajectories John M. Bolland Bradley."— Presentation transcript:

1 How Early Is Early? Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on Later Behavioral Trajectories John M. Bolland Bradley E. Lian

2 Support 1.NICHD (HD 30060) 2.CSAT/SAMHSA (TI 13340) 3.NIDA (DA 017428) 4.CDC (CE 000191) 5.Mobile, Alabama Housing Board 6.City of Mobile, Alabama 7.City of Prichard, Alabama

3 Mobile Youth Survey –Begun in 1998; 11 waves of data –Low income, African American neighborhoods 1990 poverty rate = 73% 1990 median household income = $5,190 –Multiple cohort, longitudinal study of adolescent risk –Adolescents aged 9.75 - 18.25

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8 MYS Data 1998-2005 N = 7,085 18,360 total interviews 1,774 – 2,635 annual interviews 1,187 respondents with 5+ waves of data Response rate =.73 -.78 Followup rate =.82

9 The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings Prevalence × Age Risk BehaviorRelative RiskAgePeriod Data Alcohol consumption 1.54 - 2.0012-14lifetime Add Health Alcohol consumption.8516-1830 days YRBS Marijuana use 2.11 - 2.8112-14lifetime Add Health Marijuana use 1.0116-1830 days YRBS Sexual intercourse 2.24 - 3.2712-14lifetime Add Health Sexual intercourse 1.2516-1830 days YRBS

10 The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings Prevalence × Age Risk BehaviorRelative RiskAgePeriod Data Alcohol consumption 1.54 - 2.0012-14lifetime Add Health Alcohol consumption.8516-1830 days YRBS Marijuana use 2.11 - 2.8112-14lifetime Add Health Marijuana use 1.0116-1830 days YRBS Sexual intercourse 2.24 - 3.2712-14lifetime Add Health Sexual intercourse 1.2516-1830 days YRBS Weapon carrying 1.3916-1830 days YRBS Gun carrying 1.8616-1830 days YRBS Pulling a weapon 5.32 - 6.9512-18lifetime Add Health Weapon use12.80 - 23.6612-18lifetime Add Health

11 MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories Y ij = [β 00 + β 10 age ij ] + [μ 0j + μ 1j age ij + r ij ] Where μ 0j ≈ N(0, τ ), r ij ≈ N(0, σ 2 )

12 MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories Y ij = [β 00 + β 10 age ij ] + [μ 0j + μ 1j age ij + r ij ] Y ij = [β 00 + β 10 age ij + β 01 ic ij + β 11 (ic ij × age ij )] + [μ 0j + μ 1j age ij + r ij ] Where μ 0j ≈ N(0, τ ), r ij ≈ N(0, σ 2 )

13 Alcohol Use b se Intercept1.38.03 Age (lin).26.01 Age (quad).01.003 Gender -.13.04 Age (lin) × Gender -.13.01 Age (quad) × Gender -.03.004

14 Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

15 Household Instability: Mother Mother Figure Birth Mother67.0% - 74.7% Grandmother12.0% - 16.4% No One 1.4% - 3.2% Annual Change25.0% – 34.8%

16 Household Instability: Father Father Figure Biological Father44.8% - 47.7% Stepfather14.4% - 16.4% Grandfather 6.7% - 8.5% No One10.9% - 13.6% Annual Change43.9% – 49.8%

17 Alcohol Use b se No father figure (NFF).27.16 Early initiation (EI).38.10 Age (lin) × NFF.36.13 Age (quad) × NFF.08.03 Age (lin) × EI.21.06 Age (quad) × EI.13.02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI-.51.19 Age (quad) × NFF × EI-.17.05

18 Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

19 Alcohol Use b se b se No father figure (NFF).27.16.29.17 Early initiation (EI).38.10.38.10 Age (lin) × NFF.36.13.37.13 Age (quad) × NFF.08.03.07.03 Age (lin) × EI.21.06.20.07 Age (quad) × EI.13.02.13.02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI-.51.19-.52.19 Age (quad) × NFF × EI-.17.05-.17.05 NFF*.10.07

20 Alcohol Use b se Biological father (BFF)-.27.09 Early initiation (EI).43.10 Age (lin) × BFF-.03.07 Age (quad) × BFF.01.02 Age (lin) × EI.01.06 Age (quad) × EI.07.02 Age (lin) × BFF × EI.31.11 Age (quad) × BFF × EI.08.03

21 Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

22 Alcohol Use b se Biological father (BFF)-.27.09-.14.10 Early initiation (EI).43.10.32.10 Age (lin) × BFF-.03.07-.04.08 Age (quad) × BFF.01.02.005.02 Age (lin) × EI.01.06.04.10 Age (quad) × EI.07.02.10.03 Age (lin) × BFF × EI.31.11.16.12 Age (quad) × BFF × EI.08.03.03.03 BFF*-.11.05

23 Marijuana Use b se Intercept1.13.03 Age (lin).30.01 Age (quad).02.002 Gender -.30.04 Age (lin) × Gender -.14.01 Age (quad) × Gender -.02.003

24 Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

25 Marijuana Use b se No father figure (NFF).13.18 Early initiation (EI).43.14 Age (lin) × NFF.24.11 Age (quad) × NFF.06.03 Age (lin) × EI.20.08 Age (quad) × EI.05.02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI-.17.29 Age (quad) × NFF × EI-.04.08

26 Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

27 Marijuana Use b se b se No father figure (NFF).13.18.15.18 Early initiation (EI).43.14.44.14 Age (lin) × NFF.24.11.23.12 Age (quad) × NFF.06.03.05.03 Age (lin) × EI.20.08.20.08 Age (quad) × EI.05.02.05.02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI-.17.29 -.04.30 Age (quad) × NFF × EI-.04.08 -.004.08 NFF*.13.06

28 Marijuana Use b se Biological father (BFF)-.17.10 Early initiation (EI).43.13 Age (lin) × BFF.04.06 Age (quad) × BFF.02.01 Age (lin) × EI.29.11 Age (quad) × EI.07.03 Age (lin) × BFF × EI-.19.13 Age (quad) × BFF × EI-.05.04

29 Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

30 Marijuana Use b se b se Biological father (BFF)-.17.10-.12.10 Early initiation (EI).43.13.41.14 Age (lin) × BFF.04.06.03.07 Age (quad) × BFF.02.01.02.02 Age (lin) × EI.29.11.46.12 Age (quad) × EI.07.03.12.03 Age (lin) × BFF × EI-.19.13-.28.14 Age (quad) × BFF × EI-.05.04-.08.04 BFF*-.11.04

31 Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

32 Fighting b se Intercept2.02.03 Age (lin) -.07.01 Age (quad).003.002 Gender -.41.04 Age (lin) × Gender -.007.01 Age (quad) × Gender -.01.004

33 Fighting: Frequency and Recency

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36 Weapon Carrying b se Intercept1.87.04 Age (lin).15.01 Age (quad) -.01.004 Gender -.46.06 Age (lin) × Gender -.05.02 Age (quad) × Gender -.02.01

37 Weapon Carrying: Frequency and Recency

38 Weapon Carrying b se No father figure (NFF).64.25 Early initiation (EI).55.15 Age (lin) × NFF.002.20 Age (quad) × NFF-.04.05 Age (lin) × EI.34.10 Age (quad) × EI.22.03 Age (lin) × NFF × EI.76.31 Age (quad) × NFF × EI.18.09

39 Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

40 Weapon Carrying b se Biological father (BFF) -.22.14 Early initiation (EA).57.14 Age (lin) × BFF.10.12 Age (quad) × BFF.04.03 Age (lin) × EA.63.14 Age (quad) × EA.32.04 Age (lin) × BFF × EA -.40.31 Age (quad) × BFF × EA -.14.05

41 Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

42 Weapon Brandishment b se Intercept.58.02 Age (lin).08.01 Gender -.14.03 Age (lin) × Gender -.02.01

43 Weapon Brandishment: Frequency and Recency

44 Weapon Brandishment b se No father figure (NFF).21.13 Early initiation (EI).30.09 Age (lin) × NFF.05.09 Age (quad) × NFF-.00.02 Age (lin) × EI.18.06 Age (quad) × EI.11.02 Age (lin) × NFF × EI.57.21 Age (quad) × NFF × EI.11.06

45 Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

46 Weapon Carrying b se Biological father (BFF) -.06.07 Early initiation (EI).34.09 Age (lin) × BFF.05.05 Age (quad) × BFF.02.01 Age (lin) × EI.18.09 Age (quad) × EI.11.02 Age (lin) × BFF × EI.04.10 Age (quad) × BFF × EI.002.03

47 Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

48 Weapon Use b se Intercept.36.01 Age (lin).05.004 Age (quad) -.00.001 Gender -.15.02 Age (lin) × Gender -.04.01 Age (quad) × Gender -.003.001

49 Weapon Use: Frequency and Recency

50 Weapon Use b se No father figure (NFF).06.07 Early initiation (EI).17.05 Age (lin) × NFF.07.04 Age (quad) × NFF.01.01 Age (lin) × EI.22.03 Age (quad) × EI.10.01 Age (lin) × NFF × EI-.04.15 Age (quad) × NFF × EI-.02.04

51 Using a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

52 Weapon Use b se Biological father (BFF) -.03.04 Early initiation (EI).22.05 Age (lin) × BFF -.01.03 Age (quad) × BFF.00.01 Age (lin) × EI.30.05 Age (quad) × EI.14.02 Age (lin) × BFF × EI -.15.06 Age (quad) × BFF × EI -.06.02

53 Using a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

54 The Challenges of Conditional Growth Curve Modeling 2,724 MYS respondents who were 9,10, or 11 at time of first observation; and indicated whether they had used alcohol 334 interviewed when they were 16 193 father figure + no early use 108 father figure + early use 22 no father figure + no early use 11 no father figure + early use

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