1. The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases: Nitrous Oxide Wilfried Winiwarter Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004

2. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 2 of 22 Outline The RAINS model Emission sources Emission abatement (N 2 O related vs. for other reasons) Costs

3. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 3 of 22 The RAINS model

4. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 4 of 22 Multi-pollutant multi-effect GHG control & costs GHG emissionsGHG dispersionGlobal warming

5. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 5 of 22 Processes Nitric acid production –Fertilizer industry –Abatement by NSCR Adipic acid production –Only a handful of installations –High flue gas concentrations facilitate abatement –Voluntary agreement by industry lead to a decrease before 2000 (process optimization) –Catalytic reduction or oxidation

6. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 6 of 22 Combustion Stationary sources, NO x abatement –SNCR (urea as reducing agent) –Fluidized bed Mobile sources, NO x abatement –Catalytic converters (IPCC factor too high) –EURO-IV diesel engines

7. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 7 of 22 Direct use Anesthetic Foaming agent in food industry Emissions by population –From German/Dutch/Austrian UNFCCC submission –From hospitals environmental declarations

8. N2ON2O N2ON2O N2ON2O Atmospheric deposition Mineral fertilizer leaching spreading Nitrification, denitrification... SOIL WATER NH 3, NO x Microbial production

9. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 9 of 22 Non – soil Sewage treatment –40% reduction potential at no costs (Hendriks et al.) Manure storage –Following IPCC emission factors –Using RAINS classifications of storage types

10. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 10 of 22 RAINS structure

11. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 11 of 22 Model parameterization IPCC emission factor Regression model Deterministic model EEF EF Regression model Deterministic model IPCC emission factor

12. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 12 of 22 Soil N 2 O

13. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 13 of 22 Options to reduce N 2 O emissions Reduction of nitrogen loss Reduction of N-input (mineral fertilizer) 4 categories –Simple (good management) –Sophisticated (complex farming patterns) –Agrochemical (nitrification inhibitor) –Hi-tech (satellite data)

14. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 14 of 22 Negative costs Cost savings due to savings on fertilizer costs: up to 17,000 /t N 2 O Assumes that fertilizer reduction does not affect crop yield or require additional costs Cost savings are considered equal to transaction costs occurring when implementing measures (otherwise measures would have been introduced autonomously already)

15. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 15 of 22 Forest soils Anthropogenic NO x emissions / deposition: N 2 O emissions from forest soils We apply IPCC default emission factors and the parametrization of a deterministic (DNDC) model Deposition according to EMEP, year 2000 (fixed). N 2 O emissions attributed to recipient country of deposition (in contrast to the IPCC concept)

16. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 16 of 22 Abatement costs sectortechnologyAbatement costs ( / t N 2 O)( / t CO 2 -eq) Adipic acidCatalytic reduction440.15 Nitric acidCatalytic reduction1300.44 Sewage treatment plants Process optimization00 Use of N 2 O (anesthetics) Replacement200,000676 AgricultureFertilizer reduction15005 AgricultureFertilizer timing10,00034 AgricultureNitrification inhibitors20,00068 AgriculturePrecision farming60,000203 Agriculture – organic soils Stop agricultural use42,000142

17. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 17 of 22 Interactions SectorImportant interactions with other pollutants in GAINS Power plants and Industry SCR and NCSR technologiesNO x Fluidised bed combustionNO x Power plants / Agriculture Increased fertilizer consumption due to energy crop plantation CO 2 TransportCatalytic converterNO x AgricultureManure spreading (deep injection) NH 3 (CH 4 ) Anaerobic digestion of manureCH 4 Fertilizer productionCO 2 Nitrogen inputNitrate in groundwater

18. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 18 of 22 Assumptions CLE CAP reforms reduce fertilizer input at a level of the simple option fertilizer reduction for EU25 Adipic acid plants are fully controlled

19. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 19 of 22 Timeline CLE (Europe, 39 countries provisional data)

20. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 20 of 22 Timeline MFR (Europe, 39 countries provisional data)

21. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 21 of 22 Cost curve sectortechnology Spec. costs [/t N 2 O] Emissions abat. [kt N 2 O] Cost [mio ] Increm.abat [kt N 2 O] Increment Cost [M ] Adipic acidCatalytic reduction442331023310 GrasslandFertilizer reduction1500263925949 Arable landFertilizer reduction1500192927879 Sewage treatment pl.Process optimization015029479 Nitric acidCatalytic reduction1301071440093 GrasslandFertilizer reduction15003553435145 Arable landFertilizer reduction15002943464188 GrasslandFertilizer timing10000113512515700 Arable landFertilizer timing10000884025551102 GrasslandNitrification inhib.2000023524566783558 Arable landNitrification inhib.2000018519297755487 Agriculture – org. soilsStop agricultural use420003313768076863 GrasslandPrecision farming60000338614091013003 Arable landPrecision farming60000265482399017826 Use of N2O.Replacement2000005811530104829355 (Europe, 39 countries provisional data)

22. Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004 22 of 22 Conclusions Soil is the dominant source of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions in Europe N 2 O emissions and emission reductions strongly characterized by interferences Options to reduce additional to CLE at moderate costs are available Controls – independent of costs – will be applied due to reasons other than GHG abatement